In collaboration with Kantar Public, Parliament’s Public Opinion Monitoring Unit is allocating projected seats calculated on the basis of voting intentions polls from each member state to Parliament´s currently existing political groups.
As we cannot predict the future number and composition of Parliament’s political groups, these projections of the composition of the next European Parliament are based on the structure of the outgoing Parliament and should be seen as a snapshot of the current political situation as represented in the voting intention polls.
Based on current voting intentions in EU27, this is how seats would be distributed in the next European Parliament. Click on political groups’ segments to read the percentage of seats.
Who are “others”
Since 2014, new political formations have appeared on national political scenes and are, according to current polling data, in reach of seats in the upcoming elections. As they are not part of any current political group in the EP and if at the same time they are not a member of any European political party, their projected seats are placed in a category called “others”. As we cannot prejudge which group(s) they would choose to be affiliated with after the elections, this category is equally split on the left and on the right of the hemicycle.
Voting intentions evolving over time
Using publicly available data of trusted sources
None of the voting intention polls used for calculating the seat projections has been commissioned by the Parliament. They are always publicly available polls published by clearly identified polling institutes in each Member State. Only polls from reliable sources are used. An annex to the report provides a detailed listing of all individual polls used, their sources and key data. In addition, an Excel file available for download on this page offers a complete collection of voting intention polls for each Member State dating back to early 2018. The selection of the voting intention surveys cannot be exhaustive.
Dedicated voting intention surveys for the European elections always take precedence over national voting intention polls. When several polls are available during the reporting period for any given country, the available survey data are recalculated into one averaged result per party, without applying any weighting or further algorithmic treatment. The provided Excel file displays the different surveys’ detailed results, in the case of multiple surveys available, including the average results as calculated by the Public Opinion Monitoring Unit.
Voting intentions are also available for each member state, using the drop down menu.
Each projection is further detailed in a Report on the Developments in the Political Landscape, to be downloaded here.
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The next projections of seats update is scheduled for 27 February.
Updated 20 February: Following a correction of figures for Lithuania, seat figures have been updated in all charts and downloads.