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Parliamentary questions
4 February 2015
P-010818/2014
Answer given by Ms Malmström on behalf of the Commission

The Tufts University study rests on a model developed for analysing macroeconomic issues but not trade policy. Its overall structure is ill-suited for Free Trade Agreement analyses. It does not account for tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and does not contain sectorial details needed for trade policy analyses. The Commission believes that it cannot be used to draw valid conclusions about the impact of TTIP(1).

The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) study used by the Commission is based on a standard and well-tested methodology for trade policy analysis used by all major international organisations. It is grounded on a computable-general equilibrium (CGE) model that offers robust insights on the impact of trade agreements, although with inherent limitations. On the basis of an ambitious TTIP scenario it suggests a 0.5% increase in EU GDP by 2027, relative to a situation without agreement. The fact that the results are generally in the middle of the range of those put forward by the majority of other studies on TTIP provides additional confidence about the methodology. An assessment of the CEPR report requested by the Parliament from an independent team of researchers found it to be of high quality.

The analysis does not explicitly account for the impact of fiscal policy on trade policy. However, the underlying macroeconomic data are based on informed assumptions about the expected stance adopted by fiscal and monetary policies across Europe. Nonetheless, it is difficult to predict the impact of fiscal policy by 2027, the timeframe for TTIP implementation.

(1)Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Last updated: 5 February 2015Legal notice