Factoring in the rebound effect
29.11.2017
Question for written answer P-007339-17
to the Commission
Rule 130
Philippe Lamberts (Verts/ALE)
The rebound effect is an increase in consumption which may occur as an unintended (behavioural and/or systemic) side effect of the introduction of policy, market and/or technology interventions aimed at environmental efficiency improvements.
Measuring the rebound effect is a technical challenge. At the request of DG ENV, a study was produced to address the issue in 2011[1].
While it remains difficult to measure the phenomenon properly, the principle of precaution would suggest, however, that it should not be ignored, since empirical evidence shows that it is not insignificant (for instance, for fuel efficiency for commercial road transport, it is estimated that 30-80% of the potential savings are taken back from the maximum efficiency improvement; in terms of energy efficiency in the industry, the effects are estimated at between 15 and 60%).
In 2014, the International Energy Agency, which used to estimate the rebound effect at 9%, revised its estimate significantly upwards to close to 60%[2].
Does the Commission factor in the rebound effect when it drawing up its objectives and proposals relating to energy efficiency (i.e. the recent winter package), mobility or the circular economy? If so, how?
Does the Commission plan to improve the model it uses for forecasting CO2 emissions and macroeconomic variables and in the impact assessments?