• DE - Deutsch
  • EN - English
Parliamentary question - E-002117/2012Parliamentary question
E-002117/2012

Troika-leaked version of the Troika Debt sustainability analysis (DSA)

Question for written answer E-002117/2012
to the Commission
Rule 117
Daniel Cohn-Bendit (Verts/ALE)

The baseline scenario of the Eurogroup statement of 21 February 2012 affirms that contributions from the private and the official sector ‘should ensure that Greece’s public debt ratio is brought on a downward path reaching 120.5 % of GDP by 2020’. However, a leaked version of a preliminary debt sustainability analysis drafted by the Troika throws very serious doubts on the capacity of the deal achieved to reach its objectives. Would the Commission confirm the existence of the document and the assessment mentioned above?

The report points out in particular that, ‘there is a fundamental tension between the program objectives of reducing debt and improving competitiveness, in that the internal devaluation needed to restore Greece competitiveness will inevitably lead to a higher debt to GDP ratio in the near term (…) This would result in a much higher debt trajectory, leaving debt as high as 160 % of GDP in 2020. Given the risks, the Greek program may thus remain accident-prone, with questions about sustainability hanging over it’. In such a scenario, Greek public sector financing needs up to 2020 would amount to around EUR 245 billion. Even after taking proper account of additional measures which were added to the measures already integrated in the DSA, a prudent scenario integrating risks foreseen in the DSA is highly unlikely to lead to a debt to GDP ratio below 150 %.

OJ C 110 E, 17/04/2013