Mistaken IMF forecasts
30.3.2016
Question for written answer P-002503-16
to the Commission
Rule 130
Kostas Chrysogonos (GUE/NGL)
According to current information, the 2015 fiscal data for Greece are significantly better than expected. Specifically, instead of a primary deficit of 0.6% of GDP, as forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the findings of the Greek Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) show a primary surplus of 0.2% of GDP, i.e. a positive difference of EUR 1.44 billion. Moreover, it is by no means the first time that IMF forecasts about the state of the Greek economy have been completely wrong: for instance, in 2010 it had calculated that Greece would return to the markets (in order to meet its public sector borrowing requirements) in… 2012 (!) and that the Greek economy would be growing again from the end of 2011 (!).
In view of the above, will the Commission say:
- 1.As a member of the ‘quartet’ of lenders, will it change its stance towards Greece and in particular scale down its demands for new fiscal measures, given that the targets for 2015 have been exceeded?
- 2.Following the IMF’s failures, would it not be preferable to suspend cooperation with that organisation?