A referendum is due to be held in the spring of this year in which the people of Montenegro will be asked whether they wish to live in an independent state. If the answer is no, the status quo will be maintained, but it would appear that the Commission is also preparing for the other eventuality.

If the referendum results in a vote in favour of independence for Montenegro, how would this affect the EU’s negotiations with Serbia and Montenegro on a stabilisation and association agreement? Would the Commission immediately open negotiations on stabilisation and association agreements with the two separate countries? Would the break-up delay negotiations while the two countries settle the formalities of separation?