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Публикувано на 25-09-2018

Research for TRAN Committee - Transport and Tourism in Poland

14-09-2018

This overview of the transport and tourism sectors in Poland was prepared to provide information for the mission of the Committee on Transport and Tourism to the country in September 2018.

This overview of the transport and tourism sectors in Poland was prepared to provide information for the mission of the Committee on Transport and Tourism to the country in September 2018.

Външен автор

Marcin Wołek

Central Banks Communications and Monetary Policy

14-09-2018

Communications about plans for future monetary policy are one of the key tools through which central banks can affect the economy. The addition of non-standard policies such as quantitative easing has complicated communication for central banks and there have been some lessons for the ECB to learn from communications mistakes made by other central banks in recent years. The ECB has so far done well in handling the communications issues relating to the ending of its Asset Purchase Programme but it ...

Communications about plans for future monetary policy are one of the key tools through which central banks can affect the economy. The addition of non-standard policies such as quantitative easing has complicated communication for central banks and there have been some lessons for the ECB to learn from communications mistakes made by other central banks in recent years. The ECB has so far done well in handling the communications issues relating to the ending of its Asset Purchase Programme but it faces a number of communications challenges as it seeks to normalise monetary policy. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Външен автор

Professor Karl Whelan

Central Bank Communication during Normal and Crisis Times

14-09-2018

Central banks have intensified their communication strategy since the mid 1990’s and it has become an important instrument of central banks’ policymaking toolkit. A large empirical evidence suggests that central bank communication has effectively enhanced the transmission of monetary policy before and during the financial crisis. Nevertheless, the use of communication as a policy instrument is fragile since it depends on economic agents’ perceptions and beliefs. It is crucial that central bank communication ...

Central banks have intensified their communication strategy since the mid 1990’s and it has become an important instrument of central banks’ policymaking toolkit. A large empirical evidence suggests that central bank communication has effectively enhanced the transmission of monetary policy before and during the financial crisis. Nevertheless, the use of communication as a policy instrument is fragile since it depends on economic agents’ perceptions and beliefs. It is crucial that central bank communication be consistent with policy decisions. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Външен автор

Christophe Blot, Paul Hubert

Negative Interest Rates and the Signalling Channel

14-09-2018

While negative interest rates stimulate the real economy by enhancing credit supply and improving the wealth situation of firms and households, they might come with side effects with regard to banking and financial stability. In an assessment of the trade-off between the ability of a central bank to use negative policy rates to signal lower future deposits rates, against the potential costs on bank profitability, we find that the signalling effect dominates. Thus, a negative interest rate policy ...

While negative interest rates stimulate the real economy by enhancing credit supply and improving the wealth situation of firms and households, they might come with side effects with regard to banking and financial stability. In an assessment of the trade-off between the ability of a central bank to use negative policy rates to signal lower future deposits rates, against the potential costs on bank profitability, we find that the signalling effect dominates. Thus, a negative interest rate policy is an effective monetary policy tool, even when deposit rates are bound by zero. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Външен автор

Kerstin Bernoth, Alexander Haas

When Communication becomes the Policy

14-09-2018

Non-standard policy measures are intended to work via financial markets. Their effectiveness thus depends on how ECB communication affects the expectations of market participants far into the future. Communication has become as important as the details of the policy measures itself. The success of communication is often measured by short term market reactions, increasingly using advanced statistical techniques to interpret them. But this ‘policy making by the markets’ lacks a strong anchor because ...

Non-standard policy measures are intended to work via financial markets. Their effectiveness thus depends on how ECB communication affects the expectations of market participants far into the future. Communication has become as important as the details of the policy measures itself. The success of communication is often measured by short term market reactions, increasingly using advanced statistical techniques to interpret them. But this ‘policy making by the markets’ lacks a strong anchor because financial markets often anticipate policy and the assessments of investors change all the time, often independently of monetary policy actions. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Външен автор

Daniel Gros

The future partnership between the European Union and the United Kingdom: Negotiating a framework for relations after Brexit

25-09-2018

Following the European Council's additional guidelines of March 2018, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) have started discussions on their future relationship after Brexit. The aim is to agree on a political framework for their future partnership by autumn 2018, to be adopted alongside the withdrawal agreement. Conclusion of a treaty or treaties establishing future EU-UK relations will only take place after the UK leaves the Union and becomes a third country. Both parties have expressed ...

Following the European Council's additional guidelines of March 2018, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) have started discussions on their future relationship after Brexit. The aim is to agree on a political framework for their future partnership by autumn 2018, to be adopted alongside the withdrawal agreement. Conclusion of a treaty or treaties establishing future EU-UK relations will only take place after the UK leaves the Union and becomes a third country. Both parties have expressed the desire to remain in a close partnership, which would cover several areas including trade and economic matters, internal security, foreign and security policy, and cooperation on defence. This study looks at the respective aims for, and principles underpinning, the negotiations, as expressed publicly to date by each party, and analyses some of the legal constraints and existing practices or precedents shaping EU cooperation with third-country partners. This allows assessment of the possibilities and limits of any future EU-UK partnership, in light of the stated objectives and 'red lines' officially announced, leading to the conclusion that, notwithstanding several common aims, significant divergences still persist with respect to the means of achieving the stated objectives.

Excess Liquidity and Bank Lending Risks in the Euro Area

14-09-2018

Low interest rates and excess liquidity in the euro area, which exceeded €1,900 billion in September 2018, might create financial stability risks. We clarify the notion of excess liquidity and highlight that its current level is primarily the result of European Central Bank asset purchases. Overall, we conclude that financial stability risks in the euro area are low, but increased home bias and housing prices necessitate full attention from macroprudential authorities. Monetary policy tools are anyway ...

Low interest rates and excess liquidity in the euro area, which exceeded €1,900 billion in September 2018, might create financial stability risks. We clarify the notion of excess liquidity and highlight that its current level is primarily the result of European Central Bank asset purchases. Overall, we conclude that financial stability risks in the euro area are low, but increased home bias and housing prices necessitate full attention from macroprudential authorities. Monetary policy tools are anyway ill-suited to fostering financial stability objectives. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Външен автор

Zsolt DARVAS, David PICHLER

Публикувано на 24-09-2018

Abundant Liquidity and Bank Lending Activity: an Assessment of the Risks

14-09-2018

This paper assesses the risks facing the euro area banking system, as it returns to normal financial conditions without ECB support. In the first part we argue that risks to bank lending mainly stem from the transmission of external monetary policy effects that may not be aligned with ECB policies. The second part of the paper therefore offers some ideas on the need to moderate spillover effects from outside monetary policies or events. We also review how far new prudential policies, regulatory measures ...

This paper assesses the risks facing the euro area banking system, as it returns to normal financial conditions without ECB support. In the first part we argue that risks to bank lending mainly stem from the transmission of external monetary policy effects that may not be aligned with ECB policies. The second part of the paper therefore offers some ideas on the need to moderate spillover effects from outside monetary policies or events. We also review how far new prudential policies, regulatory measures and/or policies can be used to mitigate those unfavourable risks. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Външен автор

Andrew HUGHES HALLETT

Central Bank Communication at Times of Non-Standard Monetary Policies

14-09-2018

Communication is an important monetary policy tool, as central banks can use it to manage the expectations of economic agents. Communication becomes even more important in times of non-standard monetary policies due to increased levels of uncertainty and the introduction of new policy tools. In this paper, we summarise the literature on central bank communication in times of non-standard monetary policies, with a particular focus on forward guidance. This document was provided by Policy Department ...

Communication is an important monetary policy tool, as central banks can use it to manage the expectations of economic agents. Communication becomes even more important in times of non-standard monetary policies due to increased levels of uncertainty and the introduction of new policy tools. In this paper, we summarise the literature on central bank communication in times of non-standard monetary policies, with a particular focus on forward guidance. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Външен автор

Lukasz JANIKOWSKI, Andrzej RZONCA

Post-crisis Excess Liquidity and Bank Lending

14-09-2018

With the Asset Purchase Program, the European Central Bank has supplied significant amounts of liquidity into the financial system starting from 2015, resulting yet into a new upswing in excess liquidity. The expanded asset purchase programme (APP) program broadly coincided with further cuts in the ECB’s deposit facility rate, which currently stands at -0.4%. Against this background, this note assesses the ECB policy of negative rate on the deposit facility and discusses the associated risks in the ...

With the Asset Purchase Program, the European Central Bank has supplied significant amounts of liquidity into the financial system starting from 2015, resulting yet into a new upswing in excess liquidity. The expanded asset purchase programme (APP) program broadly coincided with further cuts in the ECB’s deposit facility rate, which currently stands at -0.4%. Against this background, this note assesses the ECB policy of negative rate on the deposit facility and discusses the associated risks in the context of an excess liquidity overhang for the euro area, including risk-appetite for banks. This document was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Външен автор

Corrado MACCHIARELLI

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