Sudan: A transition under pressure

Briefing 18-12-2020

One year after its inception, the transitional government of Sudan, born out of the protests that brought down the 30-year regime of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, continues to face grave challenges at domestic and international level. The hybrid government, composed of civilians and members of the security forces, declared that peace negotiations and tackling the economic crisis would be its priorities during a 39-month transitional period leading up to elections in 2022. On 3 October 2020, the government concluded a peace deal with several armed groups. Although spurned by the main armed group in Darfur, peace negotiations made headway towards addressing persistent inequalities between the centre and the peripheries, amending originally agreed power-sharing arrangements and securing a commitment from the new cabinet to hand over the suspects wanted by the International Criminal Court. Funding constraints could however threaten the implementation of a peace deal, as long-standing structural issues, unsustainable levels of debt and crippling inflation already beset Sudan's economy, further damaged by the impact of the lockdown imposed in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Economic concerns have spilled over onto the diplomatic sphere: under US pressure, Sudan has agreed to a rapprochement with Israel in order to secure its removal from the US terror list, a prerequisite for obtaining debt relief. This has further tested the coalition's coherence, and public support for government policies. The EU has been supporting the transition towards a civilian government and has pledged a massive rise in development and humanitarian funding.