An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU 27

15-06-2017

This paper, managed by the Policy Department on Economic and Scientific Policies for the Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection, assesses the likely impact of Brexit on EU27, together with some scenarios for the terms of the UK’s secession. For the EU 27, the losses are found to be virtually insignificant, and hardly noticed in the aggregate. By contrast, for the UK, the losses could be highly significant, with various estimates up to ten times greater as a share of GDP. Impacts on some Member States – in particular Ireland – and some sectors in the EU27 could be more pronounced than the average for the EU27.

This paper, managed by the Policy Department on Economic and Scientific Policies for the Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection, assesses the likely impact of Brexit on EU27, together with some scenarios for the terms of the UK’s secession. For the EU 27, the losses are found to be virtually insignificant, and hardly noticed in the aggregate. By contrast, for the UK, the losses could be highly significant, with various estimates up to ten times greater as a share of GDP. Impacts on some Member States – in particular Ireland – and some sectors in the EU27 could be more pronounced than the average for the EU27.

External author

Michael Emerson, Matthias Busse, Mattia Di Salvo, Daniel Gros and Jacques Pelkmans (Centre for European Policy Studies - CEPS, Brussels, Belgium)