1599

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Policy area
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Economic Dialogue with the European Commission on the 2019 European Semester Cycle

07-12-2018

Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioner Moscovici have been invited to an Economic Dialogue and Exchange of Views on the launch of the 2019 European Semester and the Commission opinions on the 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans of the Euro Area Member States, in line with the relevant EU law. This briefing note covers the main elements of the 2019 European Semester Package, proposed by the Commission, and the 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans of the Euro Area Member States, including the specific situation ...

Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioner Moscovici have been invited to an Economic Dialogue and Exchange of Views on the launch of the 2019 European Semester and the Commission opinions on the 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans of the Euro Area Member States, in line with the relevant EU law. This briefing note covers the main elements of the 2019 European Semester Package, proposed by the Commission, and the 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans of the Euro Area Member States, including the specific situation of Italy. It gives an overview of the implementation of the previous Semester Cycles and of the on-going work to strengthen the governance and the resilience of EMU.

Thematic overview: Member States whose 2019 DBPs are "at risk of non-compliance" with the Stability and Growth Pact

07-12-2018

This briefing gives an overview of recent European Commission (COM) opinions on the budgetary situation of five Member States (Belgium, Spain, France, Portugal and Slovenia) whose 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) are assessed to be “at risk of non-compliance” with their obligations under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and of one country (Italy) whose 2019 DBP is considered to be in particularly serious non-compliance with its obligations under the SGP. This briefing will be updated as further ...

This briefing gives an overview of recent European Commission (COM) opinions on the budgetary situation of five Member States (Belgium, Spain, France, Portugal and Slovenia) whose 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) are assessed to be “at risk of non-compliance” with their obligations under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and of one country (Italy) whose 2019 DBP is considered to be in particularly serious non-compliance with its obligations under the SGP. This briefing will be updated as further assessments by the COM become available during spring 2019.

Implementation of Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure - State-of-Play (December 2018)

05-12-2018

This note presents the Member States' situation with respect to the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, taking into account recent assessments and decisions by the European Commission and the Council. It also gives an overview of relevant comments on the MIP published by other institutions. A separate EGOV note describes the MIP procedure. This document is regularly updated.

This note presents the Member States' situation with respect to the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, taking into account recent assessments and decisions by the European Commission and the Council. It also gives an overview of relevant comments on the MIP published by other institutions. A separate EGOV note describes the MIP procedure. This document is regularly updated.

Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy

03-12-2018

The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the inflation targets of central banks in many advanced economies despite an unprecedented monetary expansion. Ten years after the Global Financial Crisis, GDP remains below its pre-crisis trend in many economies and interest rates continue to be very low worldwide. This raises the question of whether low GDP growth and low interest rates are a temporary phenomenon ...

The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the inflation targets of central banks in many advanced economies despite an unprecedented monetary expansion. Ten years after the Global Financial Crisis, GDP remains below its pre-crisis trend in many economies and interest rates continue to be very low worldwide. This raises the question of whether low GDP growth and low interest rates are a temporary phenomenon or are due to a decline in long-run growth prospects (potential output growth) and equilibrium real interest rates (natural interest rate). In this paper, we address this for central banks very important question and discuss implications for monetary policy. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

External author

S. FIEDLER, K.-J. GERN, N. JANNSEN (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), M. WOLTERS (Friedrich Schiller University Jena)

A monetary policy framework for the European Central Bank to deal with uncertainty

03-12-2018

We argue that monetary policy faces different challenges to those faced during the period of the great moderation. Greater uncertainties over the ability of monetary policy to control inflation, the instruments that should be used and their effects on financial stability imply that we need to rethink whether the current framework is appropriate. We recommend a few adaptions to the current framework that would provide greater flexibility to the European Central Bank without departing very far from ...

We argue that monetary policy faces different challenges to those faced during the period of the great moderation. Greater uncertainties over the ability of monetary policy to control inflation, the instruments that should be used and their effects on financial stability imply that we need to rethink whether the current framework is appropriate. We recommend a few adaptions to the current framework that would provide greater flexibility to the European Central Bank without departing very far from current practices (to avoid risking the credibility that the ECB has acquired since its inception). This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

External author

Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis, Jan Mazza

EMU Reform and the New Normal for Monetary Policy: Challenges and Perspectives

29-11-2018

This paper assesses the scope for monetary policy in the euro area as it returns to normal financial conditions without support from easy money but with a financial stability objective (whether legislated or not). We find that both financial stability and traditional monetary objectives can be achieved without one limiting the achievement of the other because, in the new normal, the ECB can use new policy tools derived from the regulatory metrics required under the post-crisis macro-prudential framework ...

This paper assesses the scope for monetary policy in the euro area as it returns to normal financial conditions without support from easy money but with a financial stability objective (whether legislated or not). We find that both financial stability and traditional monetary objectives can be achieved without one limiting the achievement of the other because, in the new normal, the ECB can use new policy tools derived from the regulatory metrics required under the post-crisis macro-prudential framework. Whether they offer large improvements depends on how a clear mandate for financial stability is defined and whether coordination with traditional monetary or fiscal policies is needed. Risks to monetary policy in the new normal are mainly external and depend on the transmission of monetary policies not aligned with ECB policies. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

External author

Andrew HUGHES HALLETT

Monetary Policy in an Era of Low Average Growth Rates

29-11-2018

Economic growth in the euro area has been sluggish since the onset of the global financial crisis of 2008. While some of this sluggishness reflected cyclical patterns, ongoing weak productivity growth and demographic factors point to slow average growth rates for the euro area in the coming decades. This will most likely translate into a lower equilibrium real interest rate. The ECB should follow the Federal Reserve in providing estimates to the public of average nominal interest rate it expects ...

Economic growth in the euro area has been sluggish since the onset of the global financial crisis of 2008. While some of this sluggishness reflected cyclical patterns, ongoing weak productivity growth and demographic factors point to slow average growth rates for the euro area in the coming decades. This will most likely translate into a lower equilibrium real interest rate. The ECB should follow the Federal Reserve in providing estimates to the public of average nominal interest rate it expects to set over the long term and that this is likely lower than average rates during the pre-crisis era. The ECB should continue advocating for growth-boosting structural reforms but should also consider advocating for higher immigration levels to improve Europe’s demographic profile and growth potential.

External author

Professor Karl Whelan

Does a single monetary policy need a single fiscal counterpart?

29-11-2018

The absence of a single fiscal policy in the euro area does not necessarily constitute a problem for the ECB. In a deep financial crisis poorly coordinated national fiscal policies are likely to be insufficient. But outside crisis periods spill-over effects of fiscal policy are likely to be small and of uncertain sign. Moreover, fiscal policy is always subject to policy errors and other shocks. With many different national policies, individual errors and shocks would tend to cancel out each other ...

The absence of a single fiscal policy in the euro area does not necessarily constitute a problem for the ECB. In a deep financial crisis poorly coordinated national fiscal policies are likely to be insufficient. But outside crisis periods spill-over effects of fiscal policy are likely to be small and of uncertain sign. Moreover, fiscal policy is always subject to policy errors and other shocks. With many different national policies, individual errors and shocks would tend to cancel out each other, at least partially, thus delivering a more stable policy in the aggregate, which should facilitate the task of the ECB to maintain price stability. EMU reform efforts should thus not aim at creating a unified fiscal policy. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

External author

Daniel Gros, CEPS

Monetary policy implications of transitory vs. permanently subdued growth prospects (“secular stagnation”)

29-11-2018

Since the start of the global financial crisis, per-capita income growth has stagnated in many advanced economies. Some scholars have interpreted the lack of growth as a temporary phenomenon caused by the legacy of the crisis. Others view the lower long-term growth as a consequence of an unfavourable evolution of the productive inputs (labour and capital) as well as of productivity. Against this background, the current paper examines the long-run evolution of the euro area economy, and suggests some ...

Since the start of the global financial crisis, per-capita income growth has stagnated in many advanced economies. Some scholars have interpreted the lack of growth as a temporary phenomenon caused by the legacy of the crisis. Others view the lower long-term growth as a consequence of an unfavourable evolution of the productive inputs (labour and capital) as well as of productivity. Against this background, the current paper examines the long-run evolution of the euro area economy, and suggests some causes for this low-growth phenomenon. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

External author

Eddie Gerba, London School of Economics

Monetary policy with transitory vs. permanently low growth

29-11-2018

The recent economic slowdown in the euro area depends on supply-side and demand-side factors with different conse-quences on potential output. On the one hand, it may grow at a low pace for a long time; on the other hand, it may soon grow a bit faster. The ECB strategy has to adapt to these different possible outcomes. Anyway, we argue that the ECB has rooms for manoeuvre whatever the trend in output. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and ...

The recent economic slowdown in the euro area depends on supply-side and demand-side factors with different conse-quences on potential output. On the one hand, it may grow at a low pace for a long time; on the other hand, it may soon grow a bit faster. The ECB strategy has to adapt to these different possible outcomes. Anyway, we argue that the ECB has rooms for manoeuvre whatever the trend in output. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

External author

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL and Paul HUBERT

Upcoming events

17-12-2018
Fact Finding Visit to Italy: 17 - 18 December 2018
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PETI
18-12-2018
What mattered in 2018 and why? What think tanks are thinking
Other event -
EPRS
08-01-2019
Table ronde autour du livre ‘Paul Collowald, pionnier d'une Europe à unir’
Other event -
EPRS

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