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Brexit Literature Update 02/2018

21-02-2018

Following a relevant request by the Committee on Constitutional Affairs, the Policy Department for Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs has been compiling, on a regular basis, academic and scholarly material related to the process of, and the negotiations on, the withdrawal of the UK from the EU. Since the June 2016 referendum in the UK, Brexit-related literature has grown significantly and it is probably going to expand further in the future. Thus, this compilation is far from exhaustive; ...

Following a relevant request by the Committee on Constitutional Affairs, the Policy Department for Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs has been compiling, on a regular basis, academic and scholarly material related to the process of, and the negotiations on, the withdrawal of the UK from the EU. Since the June 2016 referendum in the UK, Brexit-related literature has grown significantly and it is probably going to expand further in the future. Thus, this compilation is far from exhaustive; rather, it identifies some of the more useful articles, taking into account, in particular, the following elements: • Scholarly rather than a journalistic character of the publication • Originality and interest • Recent publication • Be of interest for the EU • Constitutional or institutional relevance.

Economic recovery and inflation

15-02-2018

In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically ...

In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically decreasing, the financial sector is more eager to lend, and its clients—to borrow. Rapidly growing asset prices signal the possibility of similar developments in other segments of the economy. In this new macroeconomic environment, central banks should cease unconventional monetary policies and prepare themselves to head off potential inflationary pressures.

External author

Marek Dabrowski, CASE

Persistent low inflation in the euro area: Mismeasurement rather than a cause for concern?

15-02-2018

The huge literature on the causes of the persistent weakness in inflation in the euro area has not identified one single key factor. Moreover, inflation has also been lower than expected in many advanced countries. Low inflation expectations seem to have played an important role in reducing wage demand, both in the US and the euro area; but a residual output gap also contributes. The concerns about low inflation seem overblown. The HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) used to measure inflation ...

The huge literature on the causes of the persistent weakness in inflation in the euro area has not identified one single key factor. Moreover, inflation has also been lower than expected in many advanced countries. Low inflation expectations seem to have played an important role in reducing wage demand, both in the US and the euro area; but a residual output gap also contributes. The concerns about low inflation seem overblown. The HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) used to measure inflation in the euro area differs from the indices used in most advanced countries in that it does not account for the cost of owner occupied housing. This omission has a considerable impact on measured inflation and can explain most of the difference between inflation in the US and in the euro area. If the HICP were to incorporate the available estimates of inflation in owner occupied housing, measured inflation would be close to 2 %.

External author

Daniel GROS, CEPS

Brexit, financial stability and the supervision of clearing systems

15-02-2018

This paper examines the evolution of the supervisory framework of third-country CCPs in the EU making special reference to risks associated with the imminent withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Brexit). Its key finding is that the proposed reform is in principle in the right direction but there are still challenges ahead and a more comprehensive package of measures will be required to address them.

This paper examines the evolution of the supervisory framework of third-country CCPs in the EU making special reference to risks associated with the imminent withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Brexit). Its key finding is that the proposed reform is in principle in the right direction but there are still challenges ahead and a more comprehensive package of measures will be required to address them.

External author

Andromachi GEORGOSOULI, Centre for Commercial Law Studies, Queen Mary University of London

An economic recovery with little signs of inflation acceleration: Transitory phenomenon or evidence of a structural change?

15-02-2018

Inflation has been persistently below the inflation target of the ECB despite the ongoing economic recovery in the euro area. In this paper, we analyse whether the relationship between inflation and economic activity in the euro area has changed based on a review of the literature and discuss implications for monetary policy.

Inflation has been persistently below the inflation target of the ECB despite the ongoing economic recovery in the euro area. In this paper, we analyse whether the relationship between inflation and economic activity in the euro area has changed based on a review of the literature and discuss implications for monetary policy.

External author

Salomon FIEDLER, Nils JANNSEN, Ulrich STOLZENBURG, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Note on the interactions between payment systems and monetary policy

15-02-2018

This paper analyses the interactions between, on one hand, monetary policy and financial stability responsibilities of the ECB and, on the other hand, Post-Trading-Financial Market Infrastructures. Its basic conclusion is that Payment Systems are critical for monetary policy while Central Counter Parties (CCPs) are critical for financial stability. However, in stressed conditions CCPs can be the source of risks also for monetary policy.

This paper analyses the interactions between, on one hand, monetary policy and financial stability responsibilities of the ECB and, on the other hand, Post-Trading-Financial Market Infrastructures. Its basic conclusion is that Payment Systems are critical for monetary policy while Central Counter Parties (CCPs) are critical for financial stability. However, in stressed conditions CCPs can be the source of risks also for monetary policy.

External author

Francesco PAPADIA, Bruegel

The euro-area denominated payment systems and the conduct of monetary policy: Some considerations ahead of Brexit

15-02-2018

The framework for euro-denominated payment systems has undergone significant changes in recent years leading to a concentration of payments performed by Central Counterparty Clearing Houses. As it stands, a large part of euro-denominated transactions, derivatives in particular, are cleared through CCPs located in the UK; which poses challenges to the current supervisory framework because of the UK leaving the EU. Against this background, this note discusses the extent to which the current set-up ...

The framework for euro-denominated payment systems has undergone significant changes in recent years leading to a concentration of payments performed by Central Counterparty Clearing Houses. As it stands, a large part of euro-denominated transactions, derivatives in particular, are cleared through CCPs located in the UK; which poses challenges to the current supervisory framework because of the UK leaving the EU. Against this background, this note discusses the extent to which the current set-up bears risks, including for the conduct of the ECB monetary policy.

External author

Corrado MACCHIARELLI, Mara MONTI, London School of Economics

The implications of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union on readmission cooperation

06-02-2018

This briefing investigates the implications of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union in the area of readmission policy as part of the wider Area of Freedom, Security and Justice. The authors examine the UK’s current engagement with the EU’s readmission policy and the asymmetrical nature of the impact of the UK’s withdrawal. They also map the potential future relationship on readmission and, using existing models of cooperation with third countries, set out how this can be structured ...

This briefing investigates the implications of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union in the area of readmission policy as part of the wider Area of Freedom, Security and Justice. The authors examine the UK’s current engagement with the EU’s readmission policy and the asymmetrical nature of the impact of the UK’s withdrawal. They also map the potential future relationship on readmission and, using existing models of cooperation with third countries, set out how this can be structured within the future relationship agreement.

Geo-Blocking

06-02-2018

This leaflet provides abstracts of selection of latest publications prepared by the European Parliament’s Policy Department on Economic and Scientific Policy at the request of the IMCO Committee in relation to the geo-blocking phenomenon.

This leaflet provides abstracts of selection of latest publications prepared by the European Parliament’s Policy Department on Economic and Scientific Policy at the request of the IMCO Committee in relation to the geo-blocking phenomenon.

Prospects for e-democracy in Europe

02-02-2018

Digital tools could create stronger connections between European citizens and the EU decision-making process and, by doing so, might contribute to reducing the EU democratic deficit. This report investigates what lessons can be drawn from local, national and European experiences of the use of digital tools for the functioning of EU decision-making procedures and institutions. For that purpose, a review of current literature on e-democracy and the European public sphere has been carried out; 22 local ...

Digital tools could create stronger connections between European citizens and the EU decision-making process and, by doing so, might contribute to reducing the EU democratic deficit. This report investigates what lessons can be drawn from local, national and European experiences of the use of digital tools for the functioning of EU decision-making procedures and institutions. For that purpose, a review of current literature on e-democracy and the European public sphere has been carried out; 22 local, national and EU experiences with existing digital tools have been investigated and evaluated; and an analysis has been made of the suitability of the most promising digital tools for implementation and use at EU level. The most important factors for successful e-participation identified in the report are: a close and clear link between e-participation processes and a concrete formal decision-making process; the participatory process and the contribution of its outputs to the overall decision-making process have to be clear to participants from the start; feedback to the participants about what has been done with their contributions is an indispensable feature of the process; a participative process should not be limited to one event but should be imbedded in an institutional 'culture of participation'; e-participation must be accompanied by an effective mobilisation and engagement strategy, involving communication instruments tailored for different target groups.

External author

The study was carried out by the European Technology Assessment Group (ETAG), and managed by the Scientific Foresight Unit (STOA) within the Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services (DG EPRS) of the European Parliament. AUTHORS: Iris Korthagen, Ira van Keulen (Rathenau Institute), Leonhard Hennen (KIT/ITAS), Georg Aichholzer, Gloria Rose (ITA/OEAW), Ralf Lindner, Kerstin Goos (Fraunhofer ISI), Rasmus Øjvind Nielsen (DBT Foundation)

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