33

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ECB’s unconventional monetary policy - Tapering or Extension? Options on the table

21-11-2016

In advance of the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), expected on 8 December 2016, regarding the Asset Purchase Programme (APP, often referred as Quantitative Easing – QE) this note provides an insight to possible policy options for the ECB. It also looks at the ECB’s options to address the scarcity of eligible assets; if not addressed, scarcity of eligible assets could put at risk the proper functioning of the APP.

In advance of the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), expected on 8 December 2016, regarding the Asset Purchase Programme (APP, often referred as Quantitative Easing – QE) this note provides an insight to possible policy options for the ECB. It also looks at the ECB’s options to address the scarcity of eligible assets; if not addressed, scarcity of eligible assets could put at risk the proper functioning of the APP.

Fiscal Compact Treaty: Scorecard for 2015

29-06-2016

The European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) has undertaken a detailed analysis that seeks to assess how far participating EU Member States have met their commitments within the framework of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union (TSCG). This intergovernmental treaty was agreed and signed by 25 Heads of State or Government in early 2012 and entered into force on 1 January 2013.  As part of a reformed ...

The European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) has undertaken a detailed analysis that seeks to assess how far participating EU Member States have met their commitments within the framework of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union (TSCG). This intergovernmental treaty was agreed and signed by 25 Heads of State or Government in early 2012 and entered into force on 1 January 2013.  As part of a reformed economic governance framework, the TSCG has sought to introduce more effective and stricter fiscal rules, including further automaticity of sanctions and the transposition of a balanced budget rule into national legislation (under the 'Fiscal Compact'). It has also aimed to enhance economic policy coordination and convergence and improve the governance of the euro area. This study reviews the main elements of the Treaty and seeks to evaluate how far the Contracting Parties have met their commitments. It shows that, three years after its entry into force, against the backdrop of a modest economic recovery across the euro area and the EU, the implementation of the TSCG has delivered mixed results. Most notably, efforts to comply with the terms of the Fiscal Compact – including the set of rules aiming to strengthen budgetary discipline – varied from one country to another. Admittedly, the increasing complexity of the EU fiscal framework, following a series of reforms that took place after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, did not help foster compliance and monitoring. In addition, the Contracting Parties made some progress on enhancing economic policy coordination and convergence; however, there is still room for improvement. Lastly, the analysis reveals that compliance with the TSCG provisions on the governance of the euro area has not been complete.

Testing the resilience of Banking Union: Cost of Non-Europe Report

25-04-2016

This ‘Cost of Non-Europe Report’ examines the robustness of the Banking Union framework under various stress scenarios and identifies the cost of the lack of further European action in this field. The study suggests that the potential gains from a deepened Economic and Monetary Union would be substantial, should a new financial and/or sovereign crisis materialise. It comes to the conclusion that the currently proposed regulatory framework for Banking Union is not sufficient in terms of reserves and ...

This ‘Cost of Non-Europe Report’ examines the robustness of the Banking Union framework under various stress scenarios and identifies the cost of the lack of further European action in this field. The study suggests that the potential gains from a deepened Economic and Monetary Union would be substantial, should a new financial and/or sovereign crisis materialise. It comes to the conclusion that the currently proposed regulatory framework for Banking Union is not sufficient in terms of reserves and resources to fully mitigate the systemic impact of a new crisis. The report notably shows that, even if the Banking Union architecture foreseen for 2023 were already in place today, bailouts would still be needed at the expense of the European taxpayer, in order to withstand shocks, of a size comparable to that of 2007-2009. The costs at the euro-area level of a medium-sized financial shock are estimated to amount to a cumulated loss of 1 trillion euro in GDP (about -9.4% of GDP), job losses of 1.91 million and an increase of 51.4 billion euro in government debt. Assuming that such a shock occurs every ten years on average, the annualised costs would potentially amount to around 100 billion euro in output loss and 0.19 million job losses per annum. Actions at EU level could significantly reduce the likelihood of financial shocks materialising and of their impact on the real economy. This ‘Cost of Non-Europe’ report points to shortcomings in the current Banking Union architecture and identifies policy options to address them.

European Council Conclusions: A Rolling Check-List of Commitments to Date (seventh edition)

21-03-2016

Seventh edition. The European Council's role - to 'provide the Union with the necessary impetus for its development' and to define its 'general political directions and priorities' - has developed rapidly over the past six years. Since June 2014, the European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), the European Parliament's in-house research service and think tank, has been monitoring and analysing the European Council’s delivery of the various commitments ...

Seventh edition. The European Council's role - to 'provide the Union with the necessary impetus for its development' and to define its 'general political directions and priorities' - has developed rapidly over the past six years. Since June 2014, the European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), the European Parliament's in-house research service and think tank, has been monitoring and analysing the European Council’s delivery of the various commitments made in the conclusions of its meetings. This overview, presented in the form of a regularly updated Rolling Check-List of Commitments to Date, is designed to review the degree of progress in realising the goals which the European Council has set itself since January 2010 and to assist the Parliament in exercising its important oversight role in this field.

Outlook for the European Council of 17-18 March 2016

16-03-2016

The European Council of 17-18 March 2016 will discuss further steps to address the migration crisis, focusing on the follow-up to the 7 March meeting of the EU Heads of State or Government with Turkey and on reforming the EU's existing framework for a common asylum policy. EU leaders will also discuss the priorities for the 2016 European Semester and endorse the 2016 Annual Growth Survey.

The European Council of 17-18 March 2016 will discuss further steps to address the migration crisis, focusing on the follow-up to the 7 March meeting of the EU Heads of State or Government with Turkey and on reforming the EU's existing framework for a common asylum policy. EU leaders will also discuss the priorities for the 2016 European Semester and endorse the 2016 Annual Growth Survey.

The European Council and crisis management

11-02-2016

Since it became an institution in December 2009, the European Council has not only had to fulfil its core mandate as defined by the EU Treaties, but in addition has had to engage in crisis management on numerous occasions. Europe was (and is still) facing crises of a very different nature; ranging from the sovereign debt crisis to foreign policy crises – such as in Ukraine and Libya – and the on-going migration crisis. This in-depth analysis by the European Council Oversight Unit of the European ...

Since it became an institution in December 2009, the European Council has not only had to fulfil its core mandate as defined by the EU Treaties, but in addition has had to engage in crisis management on numerous occasions. Europe was (and is still) facing crises of a very different nature; ranging from the sovereign debt crisis to foreign policy crises – such as in Ukraine and Libya – and the on-going migration crisis. This in-depth analysis by the European Council Oversight Unit of the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) examines the role played by the European Council and its President in managing crises. It also looks at the similarities and differences in the measures agreed upon by EU Heads of State or Government. Three policy areas which have faced major crises, within the past five years, are analysed in detail. This paper concludes that no uniform approach has developed at European Council level for managing crises. Each of them has different causes, is based on distinct problems and arose in specific circumstances. At the same time the findings indicate that the European Council has faced comparable challenges during the various crises and goes through similar phases when responding to them.

The European Council and Banking Union: European Council in Action

04-02-2016

The first permanent European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, considered the June 2012 meeting to be 'the most important European Council' of his five-year term. At that meeting, euro-area leaders committed themselves to launching what is the most ambitious EU project since the introduction of the single currency – the Banking Union. The European Council not only provided the impetus to establish a Banking Union but EU leaders have also regularly monitored the progress being made. In the coming ...

The first permanent European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, considered the June 2012 meeting to be 'the most important European Council' of his five-year term. At that meeting, euro-area leaders committed themselves to launching what is the most ambitious EU project since the introduction of the single currency – the Banking Union. The European Council not only provided the impetus to establish a Banking Union but EU leaders have also regularly monitored the progress being made. In the coming years, a number of challenges remain for the fine-tuning and completion of the Banking Union, and these could potentially require the European Council's further involvement.

Bringing transparency, coordination and convergence to corporate tax policies in the European Union: II - Evaluation of the European Added Value of the recommendations in the ECON legislative own-initiative draft report

21-01-2016

This Study evaluates the European Added value of the recommendation in the draft report of the European Parliament on bringing transparency, coordination and convergence to corporation tax policies in the Union. This study finds that the single most effective contribution to mitigating aggressive tax planning strategies and therefore lost revenues to Member States, which are estimated to be in the region of 50-70 billion euro per annum to 160-190 billion euro per annum on an assumption of no base ...

This Study evaluates the European Added value of the recommendation in the draft report of the European Parliament on bringing transparency, coordination and convergence to corporation tax policies in the Union. This study finds that the single most effective contribution to mitigating aggressive tax planning strategies and therefore lost revenues to Member States, which are estimated to be in the region of 50-70 billion euro per annum to 160-190 billion euro per annum on an assumption of no base from sources other than profit shifting, would be enacting a common consolidated corporate tax base (CCCTB), across the entire Union. Moreover, this is a conservative estimate. The cost-effective regulations proposed the Rapporteur’s draft proposals can be expected to add 0.6 per cent - 1.1 per cent to Member States potential public investment spending power, according to research assessments. Based on OECD methodology, the enactment of these proposals are capable of improving corporation tax receipts by between 13.4 billion euro and 33.5 billion euro per annum. The Study finds that transparency and uneven implementation is one of the most serious challenges faced by the EU in the field of business taxes. This applies to methodologies, what information is made available by Member States, enforcement practices adopted by Member States and the recent innovation of ‘free-ports’ which has created a parallel trading system.

European Council Conclusions: A Rolling Check-List of Commitments to Date (Sixth edition)

21-01-2016

Sixth edition. The European Council's role - to 'provide the Union with the necessary impetus for its development' and to define its 'general political directions and priorities' - has developed rapidly over the past five years. Since June 2014, the European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), the EP's in-house research service and think tank, has been monitoring and analysing the delivery of the European Council on the various commitments made in ...

Sixth edition. The European Council's role - to 'provide the Union with the necessary impetus for its development' and to define its 'general political directions and priorities' - has developed rapidly over the past five years. Since June 2014, the European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), the EP's in-house research service and think tank, has been monitoring and analysing the delivery of the European Council on the various commitments made in the conclusions of its meetings. This overview, presented in the form of a Rolling Check-List of Commitments to Date, is designed to review the degree of progress in realising the goals which the European Council set itself and to assist the Parliament in exercising its important oversight role in this area over the months and years ahead.

A strategy for completing the Single Market: the trillion euro bonus - Report of the High-Level Panel of Experts to the IMCO Committee

11-01-2016

The economic potential of the Single Market could reach, according to research carried out by the European Parliament, as much as one trillion euro per annum in additional GDP growth. Securing this economic 'bonus' requires a strategic approach, through which the EU would pursue a “genuine Single Market” and treat it is as a common asset.  Such a strategy implies leadership and new politics for the Single Market, involving the full commitment of Member States and their compliance in implementing ...

The economic potential of the Single Market could reach, according to research carried out by the European Parliament, as much as one trillion euro per annum in additional GDP growth. Securing this economic 'bonus' requires a strategic approach, through which the EU would pursue a “genuine Single Market” and treat it is as a common asset.  Such a strategy implies leadership and new politics for the Single Market, involving the full commitment of Member States and their compliance in implementing of EU law and removing the remaining obstacles. Six key recommendations are put forward to enhance the functioning of the Single market, focused on concepts of reframing, reengineering and retooling the Single Market.

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05-11-2019
The Art and Craft of Political Speech-writing: A conversation with Eric Schnure
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06-11-2019
Where next for Europe’s economy? The latest IMF European Regional Economic Outlook[.]
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06-11-2019
EPRS Annual Lecture: Clash of Cultures: Transnational governance in post-war Europe
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