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EPRS invites leading experts and commentators to share their thinking and insights on important topics of relevance to debate in the European institutions. In this paper, Bruce Stokes, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and associate fellow at Chatham House, offers an overview of US-EU relations since the passage of the US Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. This paper is based on the author's interviews with leading European and US experts and published analysis ...

This briefing provides a summary of all scrutiny activities of the European Parliament related to euro area monetary policy in the period between September 2023 and November 2023. For a recap of the key monetary policy developments and decisions taken by the European Central Bank in that period, please refer to our briefing published ahead of the 27 November Monetary Dialogue. We publish these documents regularly ahead and after each Monetary Dialogue with the European Central Bank.

The long-running discussions on a new EU economic governance framework and a recent German court ruling have fuelled the debate on economic governance. This briefing explores the economic concepts that underlie the fiscal framework. The current EU fiscal framework relies on an economic model that assesses the cyclical condition of each country's economy. To pinpoint an economy's position in the business cycle at any given time, a 'potential output' model is used to estimate the highest level of production ...

After showing unexpectedly strong economic resilience in the face of the pandemic and the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine, Europe is bracing for an uncertain soft landing. The latest economic forecast points towards weakening growth. Real GDP growth is expected to be 0.6 % in both the EU and the euro area in 2023, having been revised downwards for the second time this year. This is partly explained by a heavier toll from monetary policy tightening than expected, alongside ...

El presente estudio se centra en el efecto de la inflación en la ejecución en curso del actual MFP a nivel agregado. Se presentan y analizan los impactos de la inflación pertinente y los canales a través de los cuales surten efecto, para el MFP y el sistema de ingresos de la Unión. A continuación, el presente estudio cataloga y analiza las opciones de actuación para mitigar estos efectos en relación con la ejecución del actual MFP y de NextGenerationEU, así como con vistas al examen intermedio del ...

Climate considerations have entered the agenda of the ECB in recent years. The ECB has intensified its analyses of the macroeconomic impact of climate change and started to evaluate and implement more active approaches and best practices to support the green transition. In this paper we discuss how climate change could affect monetary policy, other policies available to the ECB to support the green transition, and potential trade-offs with its primary objective of price stability. This document ...

After a series of unprecedented interest rate hikes on both sides of the Atlantic, inflation in the euro area and the United States is cooling down from a 40-year high. However, uncertainty about the inflation and growth outlook remains high, as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are considering their next moves. Five papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, making a comparative assessment of inflation dynamics and monetary policy stances in the two monetary ...

The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve have taken similar approaches to tightening monetary policy to tackle high inflation. However, relative to the US, euro area inflation has been driven more by supply shocks and less by strong demand. The euro area economy is also weakening while the US economy is still growing solidly. Markets expect the Fed to ease more than the ECB in 2024 but falling inflation and a weak euro area economy may see the opposite occur. This document was provided by ...

Inflation has surged and then declined in broadly similar ways in the euro area and the United States, because it has been driven by the impact of the pandemic and its aftermath. Yet, specific differences reflect how monetary and fiscal policies responded as well as the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The central banks face whole new challenges as they prepare to navigate the next phase now that inflation has rapidly declined, but also further along. This document was provided by the ...

This paper analyses how the European Central Bank (ECB) can incorporate climate change considerations in its monetary policy implementation. It reviews the impact of climate shocks on inflation and the instruments to decarbonise the ECB’s asset and collateral portfolio. The paper concludes with recommendations for the ECB to increase the low-carbon allocation in its monetary policy framework. This will in turn speed up the green transition and decrease the euro area’s fossil fuel dependency. This ...