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Postitatud 21-11-2017

The Protection Role of the Committee on Petitions in the Context of the Implementation of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities

15-11-2017

This briefing note provides an update on developments in the implementation of the UNCRPD in the EU since the study "The Protection Role of the Committee on Petitions in the Context of the Implementation of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities", requested by PETI in 2015 and updated in 2016. It reviews the recommendations of that study and identifies the key challenges regarding the European Parliament’s responsibilities in relation to the UN CRPD and other EU institutions ...

This briefing note provides an update on developments in the implementation of the UNCRPD in the EU since the study "The Protection Role of the Committee on Petitions in the Context of the Implementation of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities", requested by PETI in 2015 and updated in 2016. It reviews the recommendations of that study and identifies the key challenges regarding the European Parliament’s responsibilities in relation to the UN CRPD and other EU institutions. There have been developments in legislation, increased visibility for disability issues in the open methods of co-ordination, and progress on disability data and indicators for rights monitoring. However, some long-standing blockages remain and few of the PETI study recommendations have been actioned.

Parlamendiväline autor

Mark Priestley, Professor of Disability Policy, University of Leeds

Design and sequencing of exit from non-standard monetary policy measures: What should the ECB “new normal” look like?

15-11-2017

This paper discusses 1) the design and sequencing of exiting from unconventional monetary policy measures, which the ECB has undertaken to achieve price stability and support the euro area economy and 2) the new normal—namely, how the future operational framework of the ECB should look and to what extent it will resemble the pre-crisis state of affairs. We argue that the exit from unconventional measures should be gradual and accompanied by transparent communication, and that the exit should precede ...

This paper discusses 1) the design and sequencing of exiting from unconventional monetary policy measures, which the ECB has undertaken to achieve price stability and support the euro area economy and 2) the new normal—namely, how the future operational framework of the ECB should look and to what extent it will resemble the pre-crisis state of affairs. We argue that the exit from unconventional measures should be gradual and accompanied by transparent communication, and that the exit should precede interest rate hikes. The new normal for the ECB is likely to be different from what we know from pre-crisis times (prior to 2008). It is likely to be characterised by the continuation of an extended balance sheet, more active communication measures towards the public, and a greater emphasis on financial stability issues.

Parlamendiväline autor

Roman Horvath (CASE)

TARGET imbalances at record levels: Should we worry?

15-11-2017

TARGET is the payments system for making settlements between euro area economies and five other EU economies. Cross-border transactions generate claims/surpluses and liabilities/deficits among national central banks which “net out” for the system as a whole. These imbalances are manageable in relative terms, but look large in absolute terms. None are larger than one third of their corresponding public debt ratios; and despite a big build up in the 2010-13 period, the imbalances now appear to be on ...

TARGET is the payments system for making settlements between euro area economies and five other EU economies. Cross-border transactions generate claims/surpluses and liabilities/deficits among national central banks which “net out” for the system as a whole. These imbalances are manageable in relative terms, but look large in absolute terms. None are larger than one third of their corresponding public debt ratios; and despite a big build up in the 2010-13 period, the imbalances now appear to be on a non-expanding cyclical path. The implications for the EU economies and their policymakers are less easy. The main drivers, beyond the need to fund persistent current account deficits or surpluses, are the use of different funding sources (some outside the euro area), internal and external portfolio re-balancing, loose monetary policy and exchange rate risks. TARGET imbalances support quantitative easing, but are not driven by it. The main threats are the divergence that interrupts further economic integration; and the increasing liabilities taken on by the ECB since 2015. That said, self-correcting mechanisms are weak which makes symmetric adjustments by both creditor and debtor countries essential (because of the adding up constraint); and the difficulty that the imbalances cannot always be eliminated simply by balancing current accounts around the system.

Parlamendiväline autor

Andrew HUGHES HALLETT

TARGET (im)balances at record level: Should we worry?

15-11-2017

LAccording to the ECB, the recent rise in TARGET 2 balances could be seen as the result of the decentralised implementation of the extended asset purchase programme (APP). The programme entails cross-border payments by the purchasing NCBs, with around 50% of involved counterparties resident outside the euro area, including the UK. These counterparties access the TARGET system via a limited number of financial centres, particularly Germany and, to a lesser extent, the Netherlands. According to the ...

LAccording to the ECB, the recent rise in TARGET 2 balances could be seen as the result of the decentralised implementation of the extended asset purchase programme (APP). The programme entails cross-border payments by the purchasing NCBs, with around 50% of involved counterparties resident outside the euro area, including the UK. These counterparties access the TARGET system via a limited number of financial centres, particularly Germany and, to a lesser extent, the Netherlands. According to the ECB, the increase in TARGET balances stemming from the concentration of cross border flows due to APP transactions would reflect technical features of the euro-area financial structure rather than evidence of financial stress. However, these imbalances recently may be well indicative of a persistent fragmentation within the euro area’s financial markets as well as uneven liquidity allocation; the risks of which may be understated. Against this background, the paper discusses what the underlying factors behind the recent rise of TARGET2 (im)balances are, and the risks associated to rising Target (im)balances for the ECB’s monetary policy.

Parlamendiväline autor

Paul DE GRAUWE, Yuemei JI, Corrado MACCHIARELLI

Should we be concerned about TARGET balances?

15-11-2017

This document was provided to Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. The paper describes how the Eurosystem’s processing of cross-border banking transactions via its TARGET2 payments system produces a set of assets and liability items on the balance sheets of national central banks. The factors determining the evolution of TARGET-related balances are discussed and the risks associated with these balances are addressed.

This document was provided to Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. The paper describes how the Eurosystem’s processing of cross-border banking transactions via its TARGET2 payments system produces a set of assets and liability items on the balance sheets of national central banks. The factors determining the evolution of TARGET-related balances are discussed and the risks associated with these balances are addressed.

Parlamendiväline autor

Karl WHELAN, University College Dublin

TARGET imbalances at record levels: Should we worry?

15-11-2017

The imbalances within the Eurosystem’s Target 2 payment system are an indication that financial markets are not fully integrated. However, the increase in these imbalances in the wake of the large asset purchases (often called QE, for quantitative easing) that started in early 2015, should not be a particular cause for concern. The imbalances had declined until the start of QE, accompanied by a reduction in risk premia. QE was associated with a further reduction in financial stress. There is thus ...

The imbalances within the Eurosystem’s Target 2 payment system are an indication that financial markets are not fully integrated. However, the increase in these imbalances in the wake of the large asset purchases (often called QE, for quantitative easing) that started in early 2015, should not be a particular cause for concern. The imbalances had declined until the start of QE, accompanied by a reduction in risk premia. QE was associated with a further reduction in financial stress. There is thus little reason to believe that the increase since 2015 reflects renewed fears about a euro break-up. The ‘technical’ nature of the increasing imbalances in the wake of QE is illustrated by the fact that the European Central Bank (the central institution of the Eurosystem) has also run up a negative Target balance of over €200 billion. No one would argue that this is motivated by a fear of a break-up of the euro area. There are reasons to believe that the recent run-up in the negative balances of Italy and Spain is due to similarly technical reasons.

Parlamendiväline autor

Daniel GROS, CEPS

Simulating the macroeconomic effects of ECB tapering

15-11-2017

Although macroeconomic effects of asset purchases are intensively discussed, the literature addressing “tapering” is rather thin. Using a broad definition of tapering the study considers three tapering scenarios within a Dynamic Stochastic Equilibrium Model: A reduction of net purchases in the expansionary stage, the announcements of an earlier exit, and a faster than expected exit. In all three cases the effects on long-term yields are positive and negative on output growth and inflation. Quantitatively ...

Although macroeconomic effects of asset purchases are intensively discussed, the literature addressing “tapering” is rather thin. Using a broad definition of tapering the study considers three tapering scenarios within a Dynamic Stochastic Equilibrium Model: A reduction of net purchases in the expansionary stage, the announcements of an earlier exit, and a faster than expected exit. In all three cases the effects on long-term yields are positive and negative on output growth and inflation. Quantitatively, the effects are rather modest, however.

Parlamendiväline autor

Marius CLEMENS, Stefan GEBAUER, Malte RIETH (DIW Berlin)

TARGET (im-)balances at record level: Should we worry?

15-11-2017

Target2 balances have re-increased since late 2014 in parallel with extraordinary monetary policy measures. At first glance, the ECB’s asset purchasing programme seems to contribute just mechanically to a widening of Target2 positions. However, excessive liquidity provision reduces the role of cross-border interbank markets, which could otherwise reduce Target2 imbalances. Also, other factors like hetero-geneous country risk may also continue to play a role, but are concealed in the current monetary ...

Target2 balances have re-increased since late 2014 in parallel with extraordinary monetary policy measures. At first glance, the ECB’s asset purchasing programme seems to contribute just mechanically to a widening of Target2 positions. However, excessive liquidity provision reduces the role of cross-border interbank markets, which could otherwise reduce Target2 imbalances. Also, other factors like hetero-geneous country risk may also continue to play a role, but are concealed in the current monetary policy environment. After categorising the root causes of Tar-get2 imbalances (current account financing, capital flight, or deposit flight) and the associated risks, we discuss possible reforms that would prevent the build-up of large Target2 imbalances.

Parlamendiväline autor

Salomon Fiedler, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

What should the ECB “new normal” look like?

15-11-2017

We review the set of arguments in favour of adding permanently balance sheet policies to the central bank toolkit. Balance sheet policies could support financial stability and complement the role of the standard – pre-crisis – policy to enhance macroeconomic stability. There are two major challenges though. The first one refers to the trade-off between effectiveness and distortions. Conventional interest rate policy aims at market neutrality whereas balance sheet policies target specific securities ...

We review the set of arguments in favour of adding permanently balance sheet policies to the central bank toolkit. Balance sheet policies could support financial stability and complement the role of the standard – pre-crisis – policy to enhance macroeconomic stability. There are two major challenges though. The first one refers to the trade-off between effectiveness and distortions. Conventional interest rate policy aims at market neutrality whereas balance sheet policies target specific securities or markets by construction. We argue however that under inefficient financial markets, balance sheet policies would be helpful at mitigating market imperfections. The second challenge relates to communication. If central banks have two instruments at hands – interest rate and balance sheet policies – they must make clear how they use them and for what purpose in order to avoid sending a confusing signal on the monetary policy stance.

Parlamendiväline autor

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT (Sciences Po, OFCE)

How should the ECB ‘normalise’ its monetary policy?

15-11-2017

Discussions on how the ECB should reduce monetary policy accommodation as growth picks up in the euro area are gaining momentum. Given that the ECB’s main interest rate instrument was constrained by the zero-lower bound, monetary accommodation has also been implemented through a number of unconventional monetary tools, which would have to be phased out. As this is unknown territory, it is important to consider how to do that as well as what the ‘new normal’ in monetary policy should look like.

Discussions on how the ECB should reduce monetary policy accommodation as growth picks up in the euro area are gaining momentum. Given that the ECB’s main interest rate instrument was constrained by the zero-lower bound, monetary accommodation has also been implemented through a number of unconventional monetary tools, which would have to be phased out. As this is unknown territory, it is important to consider how to do that as well as what the ‘new normal’ in monetary policy should look like.

Parlamendiväline autor

Grégory CLAEYS, Maria DEMERTZIS (Bruegel)

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