Rising long-term interest rates: Is the European bond market overshooting?

15-05-2017

We find a wide range of effects from rising interest rates, mostly small and mostly negative, focused on investment spending, debt service costs and shrinking fiscal space. The recommendation for the ECB is not to react till the emerging European recovery is on a firmer basis. There is also the worry that rising/overshooting interest often reflect the fact that inflation risks are unequally distributed: larger in some places, but offset by their absence elsewhere. That is a matter for domestic policy, not ECB policy.

We find a wide range of effects from rising interest rates, mostly small and mostly negative, focused on investment spending, debt service costs and shrinking fiscal space. The recommendation for the ECB is not to react till the emerging European recovery is on a firmer basis. There is also the worry that rising/overshooting interest often reflect the fact that inflation risks are unequally distributed: larger in some places, but offset by their absence elsewhere. That is a matter for domestic policy, not ECB policy.