DESIGN AND SEQUENCING OF EXIT FROM NONSTANDARD MONETARY POLICY MEASURES: WHAT SHOULD THE ECB “NEW NORMAL” LOOK LIKE?

16-11-2017

With the economic upswing in the euro area strengthening, both consumer and business confidence indicators at their highest levels since the beginning of the crisis, there is mounting pressure on the ECB for a change to its monetary policy stance. However, President Draghi has repeatedly stated that the programme of asset purchases will continue until the ECB “sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim”. Even though the recovery appears to be gaining momentum, there is still a lot of slack in the euro-area economy (as well as significant heterogeneity between countries) and the inflation outlook is still well below the ECB’s target. In any case, however, exit strategies from unconventional monetary measures are likely to be implemented very gradually to preserve financial market stability. The normalisation of monetary policy will thus entail a long period characterised by large central banks’ balance sheets.

With the economic upswing in the euro area strengthening, both consumer and business confidence indicators at their highest levels since the beginning of the crisis, there is mounting pressure on the ECB for a change to its monetary policy stance. However, President Draghi has repeatedly stated that the programme of asset purchases will continue until the ECB “sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim”. Even though the recovery appears to be gaining momentum, there is still a lot of slack in the euro-area economy (as well as significant heterogeneity between countries) and the inflation outlook is still well below the ECB’s target. In any case, however, exit strategies from unconventional monetary measures are likely to be implemented very gradually to preserve financial market stability. The normalisation of monetary policy will thus entail a long period characterised by large central banks’ balance sheets.