14

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Szakpolitikai terület
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The effects and risks of ECB collateral framework changes

16-07-2018

During the crisis, the ECB modified its collateral framework to face increased liquidity needs of commercial banks. This has taken two forms: the minimum required rating for different classes of assets has been reduced and the haircut associated to these assets has evolved conditional on the default risks of these assets. The benefits in terms of cushioning a liquidity crisis and enhancing monetary policy transmission have most probably exceeded the costs in terms of riskier central bank balance ...

During the crisis, the ECB modified its collateral framework to face increased liquidity needs of commercial banks. This has taken two forms: the minimum required rating for different classes of assets has been reduced and the haircut associated to these assets has evolved conditional on the default risks of these assets. The benefits in terms of cushioning a liquidity crisis and enhancing monetary policy transmission have most probably exceeded the costs in terms of riskier central bank balance sheet and potential capital losses. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Külső szerző

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT (Sciences Po – OFCE)

ECB non-standard-policies and collateral constraints

16-07-2018

Collateral constitutes an indispensable lubricant for the financial system. Government bonds constitute the most important source of collateral, for use in inter-bank and repo transactions. But, the vast bond buying program of the ECB in the context of the Public Sector Purchase Programme has not led to any collateral scarcity. Banks still hold very large amounts of sovereign bonds and they have ample other collateral should they want to borrow more from the ECB for ‘standard’ monetary policy operations ...

Collateral constitutes an indispensable lubricant for the financial system. Government bonds constitute the most important source of collateral, for use in inter-bank and repo transactions. But, the vast bond buying program of the ECB in the context of the Public Sector Purchase Programme has not led to any collateral scarcity. Banks still hold very large amounts of sovereign bonds and they have ample other collateral should they want to borrow more from the ECB for ‘standard’ monetary policy operations. Banks tend to use less liquid assets as collateral with the ECB, but this does not mean necessarily more risk for the ECB for which liquidity is not important. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Külső szerző

Daniel GROS, Willem Pieter de Groen (CEPS)

ECB non-standard monetary measures, collateral constraints and potential risks for monetary policy

02-07-2018

This paper takes a wide view of nonstandard measures in difficult situations. We explore how, and to what extent, prudential metrics written into the new prudential and surveillance regulations can be used as policy instruments. The paper does not try to reach a judgment on which measures will work best. Instead we explore how these policies work; why they depend on high quality collateral/assets; what happens if policymakers are driven to expand the bounds of “sufficient quality or liquidity”; how ...

This paper takes a wide view of nonstandard measures in difficult situations. We explore how, and to what extent, prudential metrics written into the new prudential and surveillance regulations can be used as policy instruments. The paper does not try to reach a judgment on which measures will work best. Instead we explore how these policies work; why they depend on high quality collateral/assets; what happens if policymakers are driven to expand the bounds of “sufficient quality or liquidity”; how new credit risks arise and for whom. Some of these risks are quite subtle, implicit or indirect. But they all reduce the effective-ness of the measures in question (a transmission problem). As a result, they require larger interventions to reach certain target values (a feasibility question, given the side effects). Thus, the new prudential regulation regimes offer several nonstandard policy instruments. But they depend of the availability of high quality and liquid collateral/assets. Poor collateral makes nonstandard measures less effective. Less credit and less cheap credit will be offered due to the increasing credit risks. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Külső szerző

Andrew Hughes Hallett, Paul Fisher

The ECB Collateral Policy Beyond Conventional Monetary Stimulus

02-07-2018

The importance of collateral as an instrument for monetary policy has increased in recent years not only in the light of the changes in the ECB’s collateral framework during the crisis but also due to the progressive replacement of the unsecured money market segment with the secured one in the euro area. Both aspects are set to have consequences for collateral availability and the scarcity of high-quality assets, particularly as these interact with non-standard monetary policy. In this note, we look ...

The importance of collateral as an instrument for monetary policy has increased in recent years not only in the light of the changes in the ECB’s collateral framework during the crisis but also due to the progressive replacement of the unsecured money market segment with the secured one in the euro area. Both aspects are set to have consequences for collateral availability and the scarcity of high-quality assets, particularly as these interact with non-standard monetary policy. In this note, we look for evidence of the ECB’s Expanded Asset Purchase Programme (EAPP) effects through the quantity and quality of collateral, based on the Eurosystem Collateral Data, as well as a review of the literature. We conclude that collateral is vital to the well-functioning of money markets, and the availability in principle of monetary policy beyond conventional remains an important tool to deal with the issue of potential shortages of high-quality collateral, at least in the short-term. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Külső szerző

Corrado MACCHIARELLI and Mara MONTI

What should the ECB “new normal” look like?

15-11-2017

We review the set of arguments in favour of adding permanently balance sheet policies to the central bank toolkit. Balance sheet policies could support financial stability and complement the role of the standard – pre-crisis – policy to enhance macroeconomic stability. There are two major challenges though. The first one refers to the trade-off between effectiveness and distortions. Conventional interest rate policy aims at market neutrality whereas balance sheet policies target specific securities ...

We review the set of arguments in favour of adding permanently balance sheet policies to the central bank toolkit. Balance sheet policies could support financial stability and complement the role of the standard – pre-crisis – policy to enhance macroeconomic stability. There are two major challenges though. The first one refers to the trade-off between effectiveness and distortions. Conventional interest rate policy aims at market neutrality whereas balance sheet policies target specific securities or markets by construction. We argue however that under inefficient financial markets, balance sheet policies would be helpful at mitigating market imperfections. The second challenge relates to communication. If central banks have two instruments at hands – interest rate and balance sheet policies – they must make clear how they use them and for what purpose in order to avoid sending a confusing signal on the monetary policy stance.

Külső szerző

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT (Sciences Po, OFCE)

How should the ECB ‘normalise’ its monetary policy?

15-11-2017

Discussions on how the ECB should reduce monetary policy accommodation as growth picks up in the euro area are gaining momentum. Given that the ECB’s main interest rate instrument was constrained by the zero-lower bound, monetary accommodation has also been implemented through a number of unconventional monetary tools, which would have to be phased out. As this is unknown territory, it is important to consider how to do that as well as what the ‘new normal’ in monetary policy should look like.

Discussions on how the ECB should reduce monetary policy accommodation as growth picks up in the euro area are gaining momentum. Given that the ECB’s main interest rate instrument was constrained by the zero-lower bound, monetary accommodation has also been implemented through a number of unconventional monetary tools, which would have to be phased out. As this is unknown territory, it is important to consider how to do that as well as what the ‘new normal’ in monetary policy should look like.

Külső szerző

Grégory CLAEYS, Maria DEMERTZIS (Bruegel)

Provisioning policies for non-performing loans: How to best ensure a “clean balance sheet”?

06-11-2017

The paper explains the accounting mechanics regarding loan loss provisions (LLP) and introduces the three most important models for loan loss provisioning: the incurred loss model (ILM), the expected credit loss model (ECL) and the counter-cyclical buffer model (CBM). The paper investigates the preferred method to calculate loan loss provisions that from the viewpoint of financial accounting needs (information needs of financial statement readers) and prudential regulation (micro and macro prudential ...

The paper explains the accounting mechanics regarding loan loss provisions (LLP) and introduces the three most important models for loan loss provisioning: the incurred loss model (ILM), the expected credit loss model (ECL) and the counter-cyclical buffer model (CBM). The paper investigates the preferred method to calculate loan loss provisions that from the viewpoint of financial accounting needs (information needs of financial statement readers) and prudential regulation (micro and macro prudential supervision). Based on economic reasoning the expected loss model is shown to be the preferred model for both purposes. The new IFRS 9 accounting standard is a mixture between the current incurred loss model and the expected credit risk model while the American standard setter FASB has introduced a pure version of the expected credit loss concept in the United States. The paper urges a convergence of IFRS 9 towards the FASB model. The paper investigates the key differences between the LLP concepts as they are currently used and applied in accounting and prudential supervision. It argues that both financial accounting and banking supervision should be based on a harmonized concept for LLP calculation in the future. The proposed transition rules of the EU commission should be adapted in order to prevent unwarranted increases of regulatory capital.

Külső szerző

Mark Wahrenburg, Goethe University

Provisioning policies for non-performing loans: How to best ensure a “clean balance sheet”?

06-11-2017

This note provides an updated picture on NPLs in the European Union, showing that – although the NPL ratio has been steadily decreasing, significant differences remain across Member States. It then discusses the two main factors driving NPLs in the long term: the macroeconomic cycle and the banks’ lending practices, arguing that policy makers should continue to encourage the development of sound internal credit ratings. Finally, four main levers are discussed, that can be used to curb high NPL stocks ...

This note provides an updated picture on NPLs in the European Union, showing that – although the NPL ratio has been steadily decreasing, significant differences remain across Member States. It then discusses the two main factors driving NPLs in the long term: the macroeconomic cycle and the banks’ lending practices, arguing that policy makers should continue to encourage the development of sound internal credit ratings. Finally, four main levers are discussed, that can be used to curb high NPL stocks. Internal recovery processes, which should be improved by investing in better IT architectures and specialised professional skills. NPL sales, which may prove attractive (and reduce the supervisors’ own reputational risks), but also to destroy value for bank shareholders, debtholders and the public purse. Asset management companies (AMCs), which may prevent banks from disorderly liquidating NPLs, force badly-managed banks to feel the pain of past mistakes and gradually recover loans while being funded at an acceptable cost. Calendar provisioning regimes like the one recently proposed by the SSM, which may force banks to quickly write down non performing exposures, but may suffer from several drawbacks and should be enacted through a fully-fledged, accountable political process. In designing ways to tackle non-performing exposures, one should never forget that NPLs, while being associated with modest profits and poor loan supply, do not cause them but, like them, follow from poor real growth, ineffective management and faulty governance schemes.

Külső szerző

Andrea Resti

Provisioning policies for non-performing loans: How to best ensure a “clean balance sheet”?

06-11-2017

New provisioning rules introduced by IFRS 9 are expected to reduce the procyclicality of provisioning. Heterogeneity among banks in the procyclicality of provisioning may not only reflect the formal accounting rules, but also variation in discretionary provisioning policies. This paper presents empirical evidence on the heterogeneity of provisioning procyclicality among significant banks that are directly supervised by the ECB. In particular, this paper finds that provisioning is relatively procyclical ...

New provisioning rules introduced by IFRS 9 are expected to reduce the procyclicality of provisioning. Heterogeneity among banks in the procyclicality of provisioning may not only reflect the formal accounting rules, but also variation in discretionary provisioning policies. This paper presents empirical evidence on the heterogeneity of provisioning procyclicality among significant banks that are directly supervised by the ECB. In particular, this paper finds that provisioning is relatively procyclical at banks that have i) high loans-to-assets ratios, ii) high shares of non-interest income in total operating income, iii) low capitalization rates, and iv) low total assets. Supervisory guidance provided to banks on how to implement IFRS 9 has mostly been of a qualitative nature, and may prove inadequate to prevent an undesirably wide future variation in provisioning among EU banks.

Külső szerző

Harry Huizinga

Provisioning policies for non-performing loans: How to best ensure a “clean balance sheet”?

06-11-2017

Non-performing loans (NPLs) are still an important problem in Europe, in particular in the euro area. Provisioning is one way to address such a problem. Although coverage ratios have been increasing in recent years, banks’ provisioning policies are quite different across banks and countries. Various reasons, ranging from different collateral characteristics and enforcement systems to tax regimes, accounting methods, managerial and supervisory practises, contribute to explain the observed differences ...

Non-performing loans (NPLs) are still an important problem in Europe, in particular in the euro area. Provisioning is one way to address such a problem. Although coverage ratios have been increasing in recent years, banks’ provisioning policies are quite different across banks and countries. Various reasons, ranging from different collateral characteristics and enforcement systems to tax regimes, accounting methods, managerial and supervisory practises, contribute to explain the observed differences. Recent measures aimed at increasing transparency and disclosure rules and the adoption of new accounting rules are an important step forward. They have to be complemented, however, by appropriate early intervention measures and effective supervisory power.

Külső szerző

Elena Carletti; Bruno Brunella

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