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Comparison of key figures in the 2019 Stability Programmes and European Commission spring 2019 forecast

24-06-2019

The purpose of this document is to show the differences between some key indicators of the 2019 Stability Programmes (SP) of the Euro Area Member States and the spring 2019 forecast of the European Commission (EC). In accordance with Art. 4 of Council Directive 2011/85/EU, the budgetary planning of the Member States “shall be based on the most likely macrofiscal scenario or on a more prudent scenario. (…). Significant dif¬fe¬ren¬ces between the chosen macrofiscal scenario and the (most recent) Commission ...

The purpose of this document is to show the differences between some key indicators of the 2019 Stability Programmes (SP) of the Euro Area Member States and the spring 2019 forecast of the European Commission (EC). In accordance with Art. 4 of Council Directive 2011/85/EU, the budgetary planning of the Member States “shall be based on the most likely macrofiscal scenario or on a more prudent scenario. (…). Significant dif¬fe¬ren¬ces between the chosen macrofiscal scenario and the (most recent) Commission’s forecast shall be described with reasoning (…).”

Euro Area Scrutiny: External expertise on economic governance issues during the 8th Parliamentary term

24-06-2019

This document provides the summaries of all external experts papers published during the 8th parliamentary term (2014-2019) by the Economic Governance Support Unit, aimed at supporting the scrutiny work on the functioning of the Euro Area, especially in view of the bi-annual Economic Dialogues with the President of the Eurogroup.

This document provides the summaries of all external experts papers published during the 8th parliamentary term (2014-2019) by the Economic Governance Support Unit, aimed at supporting the scrutiny work on the functioning of the Euro Area, especially in view of the bi-annual Economic Dialogues with the President of the Eurogroup.

Key issues in the European Council

20-06-2019

The European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) monitors and analyses the activities, commitments and impact of the European Council, so as to maximize parliamentary understanding of the political dynamics of this important institution. This new EPRS publication, 'Key issues in the European Council', which will be updated quarterly to coincide with European Council meetings, aims to provide an overview of the institution’s activities on major EU issues ...

The European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) monitors and analyses the activities, commitments and impact of the European Council, so as to maximize parliamentary understanding of the political dynamics of this important institution. This new EPRS publication, 'Key issues in the European Council', which will be updated quarterly to coincide with European Council meetings, aims to provide an overview of the institution’s activities on major EU issues. It analyses nine policy areas, explaining the legal and political background and the main priorities and orientations defined by the European Council. It also assesses the results of European Council involvement to date and identifies future challenges in the various policy fields.

Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact (June 2019)

14-06-2019

This document gives an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on the basis of (1) the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the SGP; (2) the latest European Commission (COM) economic forecast; and (3) the latest COM Opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) of euro area Member States. The document is regularly updated.

This document gives an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on the basis of (1) the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the SGP; (2) the latest European Commission (COM) economic forecast; and (3) the latest COM Opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) of euro area Member States. The document is regularly updated.

European Council conclusions - A rolling check-list of commitments to date

14-06-2019

The role of the European Council – to 'provide the Union with the necessary impetus for its development' and to define its 'general political directions and priorities' – has evolved rapidly over the last decade. Since June 2014, the European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), the European Parliament's in-house research service and think tank, has been monitoring and analysing the European Council's delivery on commitments made in the conclusions of ...

The role of the European Council – to 'provide the Union with the necessary impetus for its development' and to define its 'general political directions and priorities' – has evolved rapidly over the last decade. Since June 2014, the European Council Oversight Unit within the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), the European Parliament's in-house research service and think tank, has been monitoring and analysing the European Council's delivery on commitments made in the conclusions of its meetings. This overview of European Council conclusions is a new, updated and more comprehensive edition of the Rolling Check-List, which has been published regularly by the European Council Oversight Unit since 2014. It distinguishes between four types of European Council conclusions (commitments, reviews, endorsements and statements) and indicates the follow-up given to calls for action made by EU leaders. It also offers an introductory analysis of each policy area, highlighting the background to the main orientations given by the European Council, as well as the follow-up to them and the future challenges.

Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Debt Mutualisation in the Euro Area: An Assessment

04-06-2019

Existing proposals for reform in the euro area, including the introduction of an orderly sovereign debt restructuring mechanism and of forms of debt mutualisation, rely on similar implicit or explicit assumptions: The “diabolic loop” between sovereign debt and domestic banks is to be mitigated or avoided; market discipline has to be maintained; and moral hazard has to be avoided. This paper discusses the stated goals of existing proposals, together with their likely anticipated and unanticipated ...

Existing proposals for reform in the euro area, including the introduction of an orderly sovereign debt restructuring mechanism and of forms of debt mutualisation, rely on similar implicit or explicit assumptions: The “diabolic loop” between sovereign debt and domestic banks is to be mitigated or avoided; market discipline has to be maintained; and moral hazard has to be avoided. This paper discusses the stated goals of existing proposals, together with their likely anticipated and unanticipated effects and trade-offs. It recognizes that several of these underlying assumptions and frameworks are at odds with the extant empirical evidence. It concludes by setting forth a three-pronged proposal for reform in the Euro Area. First, it is desirable to have a more explicit seniority structure in sovereign debt, which should be achieved by introducing a junior class of risky sovereign bonds linked to nominal GDP growth. Second, governments with high legacy debt and/or high deficits should be required to access new financing by issuing such junior bonds. Third, the extent of fiscal stabilization and banking union in the Euro area should be increased.

Awtur estern

S. Rossi

Are the current “automatic stabilisers” in the Euro Area Member States sufficient to smooth economic cycles?

27-05-2019

Since 2008, and as the result of central banks reaching the zero-lower bound, fiscal policy has come back as a potential, possibly primary, tool to stabilize business cycles. We present evidence that European countries have historically relied on automatic stabilisers for counter-cyclical policies, while discretionary fiscal policy has been pro-cyclical (unlike in the US). Pro-cyclical fiscal policies became so strong in the years 2010-14 that they completely eliminated the benefits of automatic ...

Since 2008, and as the result of central banks reaching the zero-lower bound, fiscal policy has come back as a potential, possibly primary, tool to stabilize business cycles. We present evidence that European countries have historically relied on automatic stabilisers for counter-cyclical policies, while discretionary fiscal policy has been pro-cyclical (unlike in the US). Pro-cyclical fiscal policies became so strong in the years 2010-14 that they completely eliminated the benefits of automatic stabilisers. Looking forward, there are calls to strengthen automatic stabilisers. We argue in this paper that without addressing the reasons behind the pro-cyclicality of discretionary policy, this cannot be a solution. Strengthening automatic stabilisers faces similar challenges and trade-offs as proposals to make discretionary policy more countercyclical.

Awtur estern

A.Fatas

A feasibility check on core elements needed for "orderly" sovereign debt restructuring and/or debt mutualisation in the Euro Area

24-05-2019

The purpose of this briefing note is to explore the requirements for orderly sovereign debt restructuring or the mutualisation of sovereign debt among the Euro Area Member States. The briefing has three sections. The first provides an overview of the challenges associated with restructuring sovereign debt in the euro area. The second examines the underlying need for sovereign debt restructuring and assesses how much of that need can be addressed or mitigated through the institutions for European ...

The purpose of this briefing note is to explore the requirements for orderly sovereign debt restructuring or the mutualisation of sovereign debt among the Euro Area Member States. The briefing has three sections. The first provides an overview of the challenges associated with restructuring sovereign debt in the euro area. The second examines the underlying need for sovereign debt restructuring and assesses how much of that need can be addressed or mitigated through the institutions for European macroeconomic governance. The third section offers policy recommendations to meet those challenges that remain.

Awtur estern

E.Jones

Are the current “automatic stabilisers” in the Euro Area Member States sufficient to smooth economic cycles?

24-05-2019

Automatic stabilisers refer to items on government budgets that operate in ways that smooth the economic cycle. These are found to have played this role to a considerable extent – possibly halving the amplitude of the cycle – in the first two decades of the single currency in Europe. However, discretionary fiscal policies have frequently overruled the working of the automatic stabilisers, thus muting their smoothing impact, both in good and in bad times. A supranational buffer fund, to which Member ...

Automatic stabilisers refer to items on government budgets that operate in ways that smooth the economic cycle. These are found to have played this role to a considerable extent – possibly halving the amplitude of the cycle – in the first two decades of the single currency in Europe. However, discretionary fiscal policies have frequently overruled the working of the automatic stabilisers, thus muting their smoothing impact, both in good and in bad times. A supranational buffer fund, to which Member States contribute in good times and can draw on in bad times, might help to mitigate these tendencies, if underpinned by strong political legitimacy, clear rules, automaticity when possible, and solid judgment when needed.

Awtur estern

P.Van den Noord

Are the current “automatic stabilisers” in the Euro Area Member States sufficient to smooth economic cycles?

24-05-2019

This report provides a country-specific stocktaking of automatic stabilisers in the Eurozone and analyses the effect of automatic stabilisers in preventing pro-cyclical fiscal policies in good and bad times. The report shows that the size of automatic stabilisers varies greatly across Euro-area Member States. While automatic stabilisers have played an important role in the early phase of the financial and economic crisis in 2008/2009, their countercyclical effect was partly offset in some Member ...

This report provides a country-specific stocktaking of automatic stabilisers in the Eurozone and analyses the effect of automatic stabilisers in preventing pro-cyclical fiscal policies in good and bad times. The report shows that the size of automatic stabilisers varies greatly across Euro-area Member States. While automatic stabilisers have played an important role in the early phase of the financial and economic crisis in 2008/2009, their countercyclical effect was partly offset in some Member States by a pro-cyclical fiscal stance in other years, in particular throughout the period 2011-2016. The report concludes that Euro-area fiscal governance needs to be improved and that it is key to build up fiscal buffers in good economic times so that automatic stabilisers can operate freely in prolonged downturns.

Awtur estern

M.Dolls, C.Fuest, A.Peichl, F.Schleef

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