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Comparison of key figures in the 2019 Stability Programmes and European Commission spring 2019 forecast

24-06-2019

The purpose of this document is to show the differences between some key indicators of the 2019 Stability Programmes (SP) of the Euro Area Member States and the spring 2019 forecast of the European Commission (EC). In accordance with Art. 4 of Council Directive 2011/85/EU, the budgetary planning of the Member States “shall be based on the most likely macrofiscal scenario or on a more prudent scenario. (…). Significant dif¬fe¬ren¬ces between the chosen macrofiscal scenario and the (most recent) Commission ...

The purpose of this document is to show the differences between some key indicators of the 2019 Stability Programmes (SP) of the Euro Area Member States and the spring 2019 forecast of the European Commission (EC). In accordance with Art. 4 of Council Directive 2011/85/EU, the budgetary planning of the Member States “shall be based on the most likely macrofiscal scenario or on a more prudent scenario. (…). Significant dif¬fe¬ren¬ces between the chosen macrofiscal scenario and the (most recent) Commission’s forecast shall be described with reasoning (…).”

Euro Area Scrutiny: External expertise on economic governance issues during the 8th Parliamentary term

24-06-2019

This document provides the summaries of all external experts papers published during the 8th parliamentary term (2014-2019) by the Economic Governance Support Unit, aimed at supporting the scrutiny work on the functioning of the Euro Area, especially in view of the bi-annual Economic Dialogues with the President of the Eurogroup.

This document provides the summaries of all external experts papers published during the 8th parliamentary term (2014-2019) by the Economic Governance Support Unit, aimed at supporting the scrutiny work on the functioning of the Euro Area, especially in view of the bi-annual Economic Dialogues with the President of the Eurogroup.

Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact (June 2019)

14-06-2019

This document gives an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on the basis of (1) the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the SGP; (2) the latest European Commission (COM) economic forecast; and (3) the latest COM Opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) of euro area Member States. The document is regularly updated.

This document gives an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on the basis of (1) the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the SGP; (2) the latest European Commission (COM) economic forecast; and (3) the latest COM Opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) of euro area Member States. The document is regularly updated.

Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Debt Mutualisation in the Euro Area: An Assessment

04-06-2019

Existing proposals for reform in the euro area, including the introduction of an orderly sovereign debt restructuring mechanism and of forms of debt mutualisation, rely on similar implicit or explicit assumptions: The “diabolic loop” between sovereign debt and domestic banks is to be mitigated or avoided; market discipline has to be maintained; and moral hazard has to be avoided. This paper discusses the stated goals of existing proposals, together with their likely anticipated and unanticipated ...

Existing proposals for reform in the euro area, including the introduction of an orderly sovereign debt restructuring mechanism and of forms of debt mutualisation, rely on similar implicit or explicit assumptions: The “diabolic loop” between sovereign debt and domestic banks is to be mitigated or avoided; market discipline has to be maintained; and moral hazard has to be avoided. This paper discusses the stated goals of existing proposals, together with their likely anticipated and unanticipated effects and trade-offs. It recognizes that several of these underlying assumptions and frameworks are at odds with the extant empirical evidence. It concludes by setting forth a three-pronged proposal for reform in the Euro Area. First, it is desirable to have a more explicit seniority structure in sovereign debt, which should be achieved by introducing a junior class of risky sovereign bonds linked to nominal GDP growth. Second, governments with high legacy debt and/or high deficits should be required to access new financing by issuing such junior bonds. Third, the extent of fiscal stabilization and banking union in the Euro area should be increased.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

S. Rossi

Expected Unemployment Rate for 2019 in EU Member States

28-05-2019

The map below shows the 2019 expected unemployment rate based on the European Commission’s spring 2019 forecast; the data will be updated on regular basis once new forecasts will be available.

The map below shows the 2019 expected unemployment rate based on the European Commission’s spring 2019 forecast; the data will be updated on regular basis once new forecasts will be available.

Expected real GDP growth for 2019 in EU Member States

27-05-2019

The map below shows the 2019 expected real Gross Domestic Product growth based on the European Commission’s spring 2019 forecast; the data will be updated on regular basis once new forecasts will be available.

The map below shows the 2019 expected real Gross Domestic Product growth based on the European Commission’s spring 2019 forecast; the data will be updated on regular basis once new forecasts will be available.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

New edition 2016

Are the current “automatic stabilisers” in the Euro Area Member States sufficient to smooth economic cycles?

27-05-2019

Since 2008, and as the result of central banks reaching the zero-lower bound, fiscal policy has come back as a potential, possibly primary, tool to stabilize business cycles. We present evidence that European countries have historically relied on automatic stabilisers for counter-cyclical policies, while discretionary fiscal policy has been pro-cyclical (unlike in the US). Pro-cyclical fiscal policies became so strong in the years 2010-14 that they completely eliminated the benefits of automatic ...

Since 2008, and as the result of central banks reaching the zero-lower bound, fiscal policy has come back as a potential, possibly primary, tool to stabilize business cycles. We present evidence that European countries have historically relied on automatic stabilisers for counter-cyclical policies, while discretionary fiscal policy has been pro-cyclical (unlike in the US). Pro-cyclical fiscal policies became so strong in the years 2010-14 that they completely eliminated the benefits of automatic stabilisers. Looking forward, there are calls to strengthen automatic stabilisers. We argue in this paper that without addressing the reasons behind the pro-cyclicality of discretionary policy, this cannot be a solution. Strengthening automatic stabilisers faces similar challenges and trade-offs as proposals to make discretionary policy more countercyclical.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

A.Fatas

Selected Euro Area Macroeconomic Indicators

24-05-2019

This table prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit includes Euro Area key indicators and latest forecasts from the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

This table prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit includes Euro Area key indicators and latest forecasts from the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

A feasibility check on core elements needed for "orderly" sovereign debt restructuring and/or debt mutualisation in the Euro Area

24-05-2019

The purpose of this briefing note is to explore the requirements for orderly sovereign debt restructuring or the mutualisation of sovereign debt among the Euro Area Member States. The briefing has three sections. The first provides an overview of the challenges associated with restructuring sovereign debt in the euro area. The second examines the underlying need for sovereign debt restructuring and assesses how much of that need can be addressed or mitigated through the institutions for European ...

The purpose of this briefing note is to explore the requirements for orderly sovereign debt restructuring or the mutualisation of sovereign debt among the Euro Area Member States. The briefing has three sections. The first provides an overview of the challenges associated with restructuring sovereign debt in the euro area. The second examines the underlying need for sovereign debt restructuring and assesses how much of that need can be addressed or mitigated through the institutions for European macroeconomic governance. The third section offers policy recommendations to meet those challenges that remain.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

E.Jones

Are the current “automatic stabilisers” in the Euro Area Member States sufficient to smooth economic cycles?

24-05-2019

Automatic stabilisers refer to items on government budgets that operate in ways that smooth the economic cycle. These are found to have played this role to a considerable extent – possibly halving the amplitude of the cycle – in the first two decades of the single currency in Europe. However, discretionary fiscal policies have frequently overruled the working of the automatic stabilisers, thus muting their smoothing impact, both in good and in bad times. A supranational buffer fund, to which Member ...

Automatic stabilisers refer to items on government budgets that operate in ways that smooth the economic cycle. These are found to have played this role to a considerable extent – possibly halving the amplitude of the cycle – in the first two decades of the single currency in Europe. However, discretionary fiscal policies have frequently overruled the working of the automatic stabilisers, thus muting their smoothing impact, both in good and in bad times. A supranational buffer fund, to which Member States contribute in good times and can draw on in bad times, might help to mitigate these tendencies, if underpinned by strong political legitimacy, clear rules, automaticity when possible, and solid judgment when needed.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

P.Van den Noord

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