52

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Oblasť politiky
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Kľúčové slovo
Dátum

Key Macroeconomic Indicators in the Euro Area and the United States

12-11-2019

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Selected Euro Area Macroeconomic Indicators

24-05-2019

This table prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit includes Euro Area key indicators and latest forecasts from the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

This table prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit includes Euro Area key indicators and latest forecasts from the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

Convergence in EMU: What and How?

05-06-2018

One major characteristics of an optimal currency area is its ability to maintain or foster integration and convergence among its Member States. This objective requires reaching a stable economic and financial situation and developing resilience to shocks. After reviewing the state of convergence in the euro area, this paper proposes a number of recommendations, aimed at improving convergence towards the steady state, as well as financial and cyclical convergence. Recommendations focus on several ...

One major characteristics of an optimal currency area is its ability to maintain or foster integration and convergence among its Member States. This objective requires reaching a stable economic and financial situation and developing resilience to shocks. After reviewing the state of convergence in the euro area, this paper proposes a number of recommendations, aimed at improving convergence towards the steady state, as well as financial and cyclical convergence. Recommendations focus on several policy areas, including cohesion policy, the statute of the ECB, public and private debt sustainability, fiscal rules and minimum wage policy.

Externý autor

J.Creel

Convergence in EMU: What and How?

03-05-2018

Convergence is one of the key goals of the European Union and has been at the centre of many recent debates. This paper strives to identify the types of convergence that are pivotal to the well-functioning of the euro area and discusses their role in the context of the EMU’s governance framework. Evidence suggests that key economic indicators have converged for some member states before coming to a halt (or even diverge) with the onset of the global financial and euro area debt crises. As economic ...

Convergence is one of the key goals of the European Union and has been at the centre of many recent debates. This paper strives to identify the types of convergence that are pivotal to the well-functioning of the euro area and discusses their role in the context of the EMU’s governance framework. Evidence suggests that key economic indicators have converged for some member states before coming to a halt (or even diverge) with the onset of the global financial and euro area debt crises. As economic convergence depends mostly on the policies of the member states, we call for a strengthening of national responsibility for structural reforms. We discuss strengths and shortcomings of the recently proposed reform delivery tool and present our proposal of ‘national convergence roadmaps’. We propose that member states can apply for resources from the European Structural and Investment Funds by committing to convergence targets and submitting reform plans in the context of the European Semester. If positively assessed by the European Commission and approved by the Council, the reform efforts could be financially rewarded – conditional on the potential for positive spill-overs, continuous implementation of the reforms and achievement of the convergence targets.

Externý autor

M. Dolls, C. Fuest, C. Krolage, F. Neumeier, D. Stöhlker

An economic recovery with little signs of inflation acceleration: transitory phenomenon or evidence of a structural change?

28-02-2018

This note, drawn up by Policy department A, gives an overview of in-depth analyses prepared by monetary experts for the February session of the Monetary Dialogue. The Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) asked the experts to prepare analyses focusing on the EU economic recovery.

This note, drawn up by Policy department A, gives an overview of in-depth analyses prepared by monetary experts for the February session of the Monetary Dialogue. The Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) asked the experts to prepare analyses focusing on the EU economic recovery.

An economic recovery with little sign of inflation acceleration: A transitory phenomenon or evidence of a structural change?

15-02-2018

This paper investigates the possibility that there has been a structural shift in inflation (upward) in the euro area since the recovery in 2014 or 2015. From the perspective of policy, it is important to be sure that any such shifts are significant statistically, sustained or likely to be sustained (durable) over the near future, and are evenly distributed over the member economies so that no one of them is damaged by anti-inflation measures taken to help the others. We approach the problem in two ...

This paper investigates the possibility that there has been a structural shift in inflation (upward) in the euro area since the recovery in 2014 or 2015. From the perspective of policy, it is important to be sure that any such shifts are significant statistically, sustained or likely to be sustained (durable) over the near future, and are evenly distributed over the member economies so that no one of them is damaged by anti-inflation measures taken to help the others. We approach the problem in two steps: we first examine the circumstantial and informal evidence, and then conduct formal statistical tests for structural changes in euro area inflation in 2015 or 2016. We find no evidence of a structural change under the four criteria mentioned. The even distribution of inflation criterion is the closest to being satisfied, but the other three are far from satisfied in any formal sense. There was a brief acceleration in inflation in mid-2016 towards 2%, but it flattened out in 2017 and has been constant at 1.5% ever since. Core inflation was constant at 0.9% throughout. The question is why has there been no inflation in the recovery and how long is that likely to last? In a third step, we explain how low growth in real wages and self-reinforcing low productivity growth produces slow output growth and low inflation. This model fits the data pretty well, down to the lack of labour and total factor productivity and to substituting cheaper labour for excess capital stock. It implies a fall in investment spending (also seen in the data) which in turn extends the period for which low productivity-low inflation outcomes apply.

Externý autor

Andrew HUGHES HALLETT

Why does the recovery show so little inflation?

15-02-2018

We investigate the determinants of inflation in the euro area since 2000 and show that the most important determinants are inflation expectations and wage growth. Both indicators have contributed negatively to inflation since 2014 but inflation expectations less so since 2015 whereas the contribution of wage growth has remained negative. We suggest that structural reforms may have put a drag on the ability of the ECB to reach its inflation target rapidly.

We investigate the determinants of inflation in the euro area since 2000 and show that the most important determinants are inflation expectations and wage growth. Both indicators have contributed negatively to inflation since 2014 but inflation expectations less so since 2015 whereas the contribution of wage growth has remained negative. We suggest that structural reforms may have put a drag on the ability of the ECB to reach its inflation target rapidly.

Externý autor

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT, OFCE (Sciences Po)

Economic recovery and inflation

15-02-2018

In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically ...

In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically decreasing, the financial sector is more eager to lend, and its clients—to borrow. Rapidly growing asset prices signal the possibility of similar developments in other segments of the economy. In this new macroeconomic environment, central banks should cease unconventional monetary policies and prepare themselves to head off potential inflationary pressures.

Externý autor

Marek Dabrowski, CASE

Persistent low inflation in the euro area: Mismeasurement rather than a cause for concern?

15-02-2018

The huge literature on the causes of the persistent weakness in inflation in the euro area has not identified one single key factor. Moreover, inflation has also been lower than expected in many advanced countries. Low inflation expectations seem to have played an important role in reducing wage demand, both in the US and the euro area; but a residual output gap also contributes. The concerns about low inflation seem overblown. The HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) used to measure inflation ...

The huge literature on the causes of the persistent weakness in inflation in the euro area has not identified one single key factor. Moreover, inflation has also been lower than expected in many advanced countries. Low inflation expectations seem to have played an important role in reducing wage demand, both in the US and the euro area; but a residual output gap also contributes. The concerns about low inflation seem overblown. The HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) used to measure inflation in the euro area differs from the indices used in most advanced countries in that it does not account for the cost of owner occupied housing. This omission has a considerable impact on measured inflation and can explain most of the difference between inflation in the US and in the euro area. If the HICP were to incorporate the available estimates of inflation in owner occupied housing, measured inflation would be close to 2 %.

Externý autor

Daniel GROS, CEPS

An economic recovery with little signs of inflation acceleration: Transitory phenomenon or evidence of a structural change?

15-02-2018

Inflation has been persistently below the inflation target of the ECB despite the ongoing economic recovery in the euro area. In this paper, we analyse whether the relationship between inflation and economic activity in the euro area has changed based on a review of the literature and discuss implications for monetary policy.

Inflation has been persistently below the inflation target of the ECB despite the ongoing economic recovery in the euro area. In this paper, we analyse whether the relationship between inflation and economic activity in the euro area has changed based on a review of the literature and discuss implications for monetary policy.

Externý autor

Salomon FIEDLER, Nils JANNSEN, Ulrich STOLZENBURG, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

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