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This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in the EU Member States and gives an overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major international and EU institutions

Recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area - February 2022

Задълбочен анализ 31-01-2022

This note looks at the 2022 recommendation on the economic policies of the euro area proposed by the Commission and agreed by the Council. It also provides an overview of the follow up of the 2021 recommendations, making use of public information and based on proxies such as on how the Eurogroup has integrated euro area recommendations’ concerns in their “thematic discussions” and work programmes. In addition, the note provides a review of the euro area recommendations from an institutional perspective ...

The 2021 G20 Summit, to be held in Rome on 30 and 31 October, was expected to bring together the major economies' leaders in a physical meeting for the first time since the pandemic began. However, several leaders (of Russia, Japan, Mexico and China) have announced that they will not attend in person, limiting opportunities to hold informal bilateral meetings in the margins of the summit. Important decisions designed to put the global economy and society on course towards a greener and more sustainable ...

This document presents: • The 2019 Country-Specific Recommendations (CSRs) adopted by the Council, in the framework of the European Semester, on 9 July 2019 (on the basis of European Commission proposals of 5 June 2019). • The European Commission’s assessments of the implementation of the 2019 CSRs based on its Country Reports published on 26 February 2020. • The 2020 CSRs adopted by the Council, in the framework of the European Semester, on 20 July 2020 (on the basis of European Commission proposals ...

This paper situates the EU’s fiscal response to the pandemic (suspending the Stability and Growth Pact, creating the SURE and Recovery and Resilience Facility) within longstanding debates on reforming EU fiscal governance and offers recommendations on the way forward, specifically the SGP reforms needed prior to returning to its rules and creating a budget with a stabilisation capacity.

Once More, the US Leads Europe

Задълбочен анализ 29-06-2021

The US and European economic approaches to the COVID-19 pandemic have differed in many ways. It is most likely that the US recovery will come sooner and will be stronger than in Europe, pretty much as has been the case with the global financial crisis a decade ago. In order to achieve a solid and lasting recovery, Europe needs to learn from the previous crisis and to prepare for the effects of the coming rapid US expansion. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific ...

The main legacy of the post-Covid-19-crisis euro area fiscal framework should be the development of a unique integrated fiscal policy and of a permanent and independent Fiscal Fund to implement it. To arrive at this conclusion, we analyse the challenges and build on current research on the optimal design of a fiscal fund. We characterise the fiscal policy, and the development of the Fund, together with the role and form that the Stability and Growth Pact can take in the new fiscal framework.

Euro Area fiscal policies and capacity in post-pandemic times

Задълбочен анализ 17-06-2021

The euro area response to the Covid crisis avoided a financial crisis. In the short term, the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus should be guided by unemployment, output gap and inflation data. Over the medium term, reducing public debt ratios will require maintaining the growth of primary spending below the (higher) GDP growth rate to be achieved through structural reforms. Over the longer term, creating a central fiscal capacity, strengthening the enforcement of fiscal rules in good times and completing ...

We present a review of the channels through which the US fiscal and monetary post-pandemic policies may affect the euro area. US spillovers will likely be relevant and worth considering while setting the policy stance in the euro area, at a crossroad between economic global recovery and global overheating. A key role is going to be played by global financial markets, their appetite for open-ended stimulative policies and fears of hard disinflation scenarios affecting central banks' ability to keep ...

Could the Euro Area Benefit From the US Stimulus Packages?

Задълбочен анализ 17-06-2021

The recent US fiscal packages have raised some concerns on their magnitude, but also their spillovers to the euro area economy. After discussing US fiscal measures and reviewing the literature on international spillovers, we show that the US policy mix may have rather positive macroeconomic effects on the euro area. We conclude though that these effects need to be balanced against growing financial risks. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life ...