Are European bond markets overshooting?
Indgående analyse
15-05-2017
We find that monetary variables, spillovers from US financial markets, expectations and sovereign risks are the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the EA. The empirical model does not identify recent overshooting. The observed rise since August 2016 is attributed to two factors: a) the increase in US long-term interest rates after the reversal in the Fed’s monetary stance; b) political tensions in France, Italy or Spain which generated higher perceived political risk.
Indgående analyse
Ekstern forfatter
Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT, Fabien LABONDANCE (OFCE)
Om dette dokument
Type af publikation
Nøgleord
- EU-medlemsstat
- euroemission
- euroområdet
- FINANSER
- finansiel risiko
- fri kapitalbevægelighed
- GEOGRAFI
- investering og finansiering
- kredit- og finansinstitutter
- langfristet finansiering
- monetære forhold
- nationalregnskab
- opsparing
- rente
- udlånsrenteniveau
- valutaforhold
- ØKONOMI
- økonomisk analyse
- økonomisk analyse
- økonomisk geografi