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This briefing paper was prepared ahead of the Monetary Dialogue between the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) and the European Central Bank (ECB) President on Thursday, 15 February. It provides a summary of key monetary policy developments and decisions taken by the ECB’s Governing Council. This is the last Monetary Dialogue of the 9th legislative term.

The ECB in the age of turbulence

Indgående analyse 14-02-2024

This study discusses the ECB’s response to the recent crises, detailing interventions, new tools, and strategy shifts. It evaluates the effects of such crises on inflation expectations and financial stability across major European economies, offering insights into the euro area’s policy dynamics and challenges. This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ...

Over the past 25 years, the euro faced various crises, prompting a reassessment of its governance. Concerns arise regarding the ECB's exposure to risk and the necessity of deep reforms for managing growing ecological, financial, and geo-economic risks. Despite initial achievements like the banking union, challenges persist, such as financial instability and economic fragmentation. Policymakers must address these risks through enhanced monetary and macroprudential policies, fiscal coordination, and ...

New economic governance rules

Briefing 07-02-2024

On 26 April 2023, the European Commission published a package of three proposals to revise the EU's economic governance framework: a regulation to replace the current preventive arm of the stability and growth pact (SGP), an amending Council regulation on the corrective arm of the SGP, and an amending Council directive to strengthen the role of independent fiscal institutions. The main proposal on the preventive arm is to be adopted through the ordinary legislative procedure with the European Parliament ...

The euro at 25 and what’s next for the ECB?

Indgående analyse 05-02-2024

The euro has proved to be remarkably resilient and is popular with the EU’s citizens. This paper reviews the reasons for this and argues that the euro project is more resilient now due to several institutional changes. It also discusses how the ECB’s monetary policy has evolved over time, its policy stance in recent years and some of the ways in which it may need to change in the future. This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on ...

The age of reason?

Indgående analyse 01-02-2024

At age 25, the euro has been a historical success, but it has not yet reached an adult stage. The ECB has made much progress and can do more on its own. Its next monetary policy strategy, to be announced in 2025, is an opportunity that should not be missed. Much more is needed from member governments, which are still reluctant to grant the ECB what it needs to become a normal central bank. This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee ...

Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioner Gentiloni have been invited to an Economic Dialogue on the fiscal part of the 2024 European Semester autumn package adopted by the Commission in November 2023. The fiscal elements of the package include the Commission Opinions on the euro area 2024 Draft Budgetary Plans, the fiscal policy recommendation for the euro area and some elements of the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report. In 2024, the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact will ...

The long-running discussions on a new EU economic governance framework and a recent German court ruling have fuelled the debate on economic governance. This briefing explores the economic concepts that underlie the fiscal framework. The current EU fiscal framework relies on an economic model that assesses the cyclical condition of each country's economy. To pinpoint an economy's position in the business cycle at any given time, a 'potential output' model is used to estimate the highest level of production ...

After a series of unprecedented interest rate hikes on both sides of the Atlantic, inflation in the euro area and the United States is cooling down from a 40-year high. However, uncertainty about the inflation and growth outlook remains high, as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are considering their next moves. Five papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, making a comparative assessment of inflation dynamics and monetary policy stances in the two monetary ...

Inflation has surged and then declined in broadly similar ways in the euro area and the United States, because it has been driven by the impact of the pandemic and its aftermath. Yet, specific differences reflect how monetary and fiscal policies responded as well as the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The central banks face whole new challenges as they prepare to navigate the next phase now that inflation has rapidly declined, but also further along. This document was provided by the ...