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This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in the EU Member States and gives an overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major international and EU institutions

Several central banks, including the European Central Bank since 2014, have added negative policy rates to their toolboxes after exhausting conventional easing measures. It is essential to understand the effects on the economy of prolonged negative rates. This paper explores the potential effects (and side effects) of negative rates in theory and examines the evidence to determine what these effects have been in practice in the euro area. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic ...

Negative interest rate policies (NIRP) have become an established monetary policy instrument in the toolkit of the ECB. We discuss NIRP in the euro area based on theoretical considerations and available empirical evidence. We find that NIRP had some positive impact on loan growth and investment in the euro area, but that the room to further loosen monetary policy via NIRP may be small. NIRP is discussed also in the context of the general monetary policy environment. This paper was provided by ...

The main legacy of the post-Covid-19-crisis euro area fiscal framework should be the development of a unique integrated fiscal policy and of a permanent and independent Fiscal Fund to implement it. To arrive at this conclusion, we analyse the challenges and build on current research on the optimal design of a fiscal fund. We characterise the fiscal policy, and the development of the Fund, together with the role and form that the Stability and Growth Pact can take in the new fiscal framework.

(Updated 18 June 2021) The COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented shock to the euro area economy. The ECB's Governing Council took a series of measures that collectively provided a substantial monetary policy stimulus aimed at safeguarding the effective transmission of monetary policy and preventing a serious deterioration of financial conditions. This briefing, which is reguarly updated since March 2020, summarises these monetary policy measures.

The main thrust of fiscal and monetary responses to the pandemic in the EU and the US are contrasted. Estimates of the spillovers from US fiscal policy to Europe are estimated. They are found to be significant but economically modest. Consequences for debt and debt sustainability in the long-run are also examined. Concerns over debt sustainability in the EU and the US are warranted. Observers advocating much higher debt levels need to consider lessons from history. This paper was provided by the ...

The United States (US) have responded to the COVID-19 shock with a massive fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has maintained a highly accommodative monetary policy stance. However, the Fed’s new average inflation targeting regime is being put to the test by the spike in inflation observed in recent months. Due to the global influence of the US economy and interlinkages with the euro area, questions arise over the possibility of significant spillovers from ...

A widespread concern about negative policy rates is that they might depress bank profits and encourage risk-taking. We find that the impact of negative rates per se is limited. Other policy measures (TLTROs, tiered deposits) have largely neutralised the impact of NIRP on bank profits. Asset purchases might have been more important by compressing the yield curve. Any small positive impact of negative rates on lending and aggregate demand may have been swamped by the negative impact of low rates on ...

The study analyses the repercussions of the judgment of the German Federal Constitutional Court of 5 May 2020. It puts the decision into context, makes a normative assessment, analyses possible consequences and makes some policy recommendations.

The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper was provided by the Policy ...