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Innovative technologies shaping the 2040 battlefield

02-08-2021

This study provides an assessment of the risks, challenges and opportunities related to new and emerging technologies that are most expected to shape the future battlefield out to 2040. The study presents implications stemming from consideration of individual technologies, as well as cross-cutting analysis of their interactions with broader political, social, economic, and environmental trends. In doing so, the study highlights a need for EU Institutions and Member States to pursue a broad range ...

This study provides an assessment of the risks, challenges and opportunities related to new and emerging technologies that are most expected to shape the future battlefield out to 2040. The study presents implications stemming from consideration of individual technologies, as well as cross-cutting analysis of their interactions with broader political, social, economic, and environmental trends. In doing so, the study highlights a need for EU Institutions and Member States to pursue a broad range of capability development initiatives in a coherent and coordinated manner, ensure the development of an agile regulatory and organisational environment, and guide investments in technologies most relevant to the European context.

Externe Autor

This study has been written by Jacopo Bellasio, Linda Slapakova, Luke Huxtable, James Black, Theodora Ogden and Livia Dawaele of RAND Europe, at the request of the Panel for the Future of Science and Technology (STOA) and managed by the Scientific Foresight Unit, within the Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services (EPRS) of the Secretariat of the European Parliament.

Guidelines for foresight-based policy analysis

26-07-2021

Policy analysis examines and assesses problems to determine possible courses for policy action (policy options). In highly complex or controversial contexts, evidence-based policy options might not be socially acceptable. Here, policy analysis can benefit from a foresight-based approach, which helps investigate the issue holistically and assess considered evidence-based policy options against societal concerns. This is especially important in a parliamentary setting, as it enables analysts to consider ...

Policy analysis examines and assesses problems to determine possible courses for policy action (policy options). In highly complex or controversial contexts, evidence-based policy options might not be socially acceptable. Here, policy analysis can benefit from a foresight-based approach, which helps investigate the issue holistically and assess considered evidence-based policy options against societal concerns. This is especially important in a parliamentary setting, as it enables analysts to consider stakeholder views and geographical concerns/differences when assessing policy options. This manual establishes the methodology for the foresight process and foresight-informed policy analysis. It offers a conceptual clarification of foresight and foresight-based technology assessment, helps enhance the transparency of foresight processes and the quality of policy analyses, offers four general guidelines for conducting trustworthy policy analysis, and, finally, provides a practical framework with six basic components for foresight-based policy analysis.

Review of dual-use export controls

20-07-2021

Certain goods and technologies have legitimate civilian applications but can also be used for military purposes; so-called 'dual-use' goods are subject to the European Union's export control regime. The regime has just been revised, mainly to take account of significant technological developments, increase transparency and create a more level playing field among EU Member States. The proposed regulation will recast the regulation in force since 2009. Among other elements, the proposal explicitly ...

Certain goods and technologies have legitimate civilian applications but can also be used for military purposes; so-called 'dual-use' goods are subject to the European Union's export control regime. The regime has just been revised, mainly to take account of significant technological developments, increase transparency and create a more level playing field among EU Member States. The proposed regulation will recast the regulation in force since 2009. Among other elements, the proposal explicitly defines cyber-surveillance technology as dual-use technology and introduces human rights violations as an explicit justification for export control. It also includes provisions to control emerging technologies. The proposed regulation introduces greater transparency into dual-use export control by increasing the level of detail Member States will have to provide on exports, licences, licence denials and prohibitions. On 17 January 2018, based on the INTA committee's report on the legislative proposal, the European Parliament adopted its position for trilogue negotiations. For its part, the Council adopted its negotiating mandate on 5 June 2019, and on the basis of this mandate, the Council Presidency began negotiations with the European Parliament's delegation on 21 October 2019. Trilogue negotiations ended on 9 November 2020, with agreement on a final compromise text. Endorsed by the INTA committee on 30 November, the Parliament formally voted on the text in plenary on 25 March 2021. The Regulation was published in the Official Journal on 11 June 2021 and enters into force on 8 September 2021. Seventh edition. The 'EU Legislation in Progress' briefings are updated at key stages throughout the legislative procedure.

EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats

16-07-2021

This study on ‘EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats’ was requested by the European Parliament’s (EP) Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in the context of, but not limited to, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Building on reports and expert input, this study first provides an update of the current level of each of the C, B, R and N threat elements, including the type of actor from which such threats might stem. It furthermore takes stock ...

This study on ‘EU preparedness and responses to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats’ was requested by the European Parliament’s (EP) Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in the context of, but not limited to, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Building on reports and expert input, this study first provides an update of the current level of each of the C, B, R and N threat elements, including the type of actor from which such threats might stem. It furthermore takes stock of the existing preparedness and response mechanisms and matches these against the updated threat landscape to determine the current state of play of the EU’s response tools and its remaining gaps where improvement may be needed. The study puts forward a number of recommendations on specific issues. The core of the recommendations builds on using a ‘Team Europe’ approach to create and maintain a strong task force based response capacity, with additional authority and competence given by EU Member States to the EU. This would enable the EU to better support and manage an EU-wide crisis response in the CBRN field in a timely and effective manner.

Externe Autor

Alexandra RIMPLER-SCHMID, Ralf TRAPP, Sarah LEONARD, Christian KAUNERT, Yves DUBUCQ, Claude LEFEBVRE, Hanna MOHN

New EU strategic priorities for the Sahel: Addressing regional challenges through better governance

09-07-2021

Recent events have shown that the Sahel region remains highly politically unstable. The military takeover of the Chadian government following President Idriss Déby's sudden death in April 2021 and the repercussions of the August 2020 and May 2021 military coups in Mali are worrying signs of weak democratic governance structures. Burkina Faso's transitional democracy has also been severely destabilised by the activities of extremist groups and internal conflicts. This political fragility and the lack ...

Recent events have shown that the Sahel region remains highly politically unstable. The military takeover of the Chadian government following President Idriss Déby's sudden death in April 2021 and the repercussions of the August 2020 and May 2021 military coups in Mali are worrying signs of weak democratic governance structures. Burkina Faso's transitional democracy has also been severely destabilised by the activities of extremist groups and internal conflicts. This political fragility and the lack of government legitimacy have made the responses to the Sahel's security and humanitarian issues all the more challenging. The continued threat posed by terrorist armed groups and rising intercommunal violence over land and resources have led to both internal and cross-border displacements in Sahel countries. Meanwhile, the inadequacy of governance mechanisms for managing this displacement, compounded by environmental degradation, resource scarcity and population growth, has created a severe humanitarian crisis. Since 2011, the European Union (EU) strategy for the Sahel has focused on both security and development to address these numerous and interconnected challenges. However, EU efforts have remained dominated by a military approach to tackle rising terrorist activity, achieving concrete results but ultimately falling short of long-term regional stability. The new EU integrated strategy in the Sahel aims to strengthen action at the political level, focusing on governance mechanisms, human rights, and collaboration with civil society and local authorities, while maintaining security cooperation with states in the region.

Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide: Normandy Index 2021

06-07-2021

The Normandy Index, now in its third year, aims at measuring the level of threat to peace, security and democracy around the world. It was presented for the first time on the occasion of the Normandy Peace Forum in June 2019, as a result of a partnership between the European Parliament and the Region of Normandy. The Index has been designed and prepared by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), in conjunction with and on the basis of data provided by the Institute for Economics and Peace ...

The Normandy Index, now in its third year, aims at measuring the level of threat to peace, security and democracy around the world. It was presented for the first time on the occasion of the Normandy Peace Forum in June 2019, as a result of a partnership between the European Parliament and the Region of Normandy. The Index has been designed and prepared by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), in conjunction with and on the basis of data provided by the Institute for Economics and Peace. This paper sets out the findings of the 2021 exercise, and explains how the index can be used to compare peace – defined on the basis of a given country's performance against a range of predetermined threats – across countries and regions. It is complemented by 51 individual country case studies, derived from the Index. The paper forms part of the EPRS contribution to the Normandy World Peace Forum 2021. It is accompanied by two papers, one on the EU's contribution to peace and security in 2021, the other on the EU's relations with Turkey.

Mali: Yet another coup

16-06-2021

On 24 May 2021, the Malian transitional government suffered a coup – the second in nine months – which cast a shadow on the transition process that should lead to a presidential election in early 2022. These developments risk further destabilising the Sahel and challenge the implementation of the new EU strategy in the region.

On 24 May 2021, the Malian transitional government suffered a coup – the second in nine months – which cast a shadow on the transition process that should lead to a presidential election in early 2022. These developments risk further destabilising the Sahel and challenge the implementation of the new EU strategy in the region.

Peace and Security in 2021: Overview of EU action and outlook for the future

15-06-2021

This is the fourth Peace and Security Outlook produced by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS). The series is designed to analyse and explain the contribution of the European Union to the promotion of peace and security internationally, through its various external policies. The study provides an overview of the issues and current state of play. It looks first at the concept of peace and the changing nature of the geopolitical environment, in light of global shifts of power and of the ...

This is the fourth Peace and Security Outlook produced by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS). The series is designed to analyse and explain the contribution of the European Union to the promotion of peace and security internationally, through its various external policies. The study provides an overview of the issues and current state of play. It looks first at the concept of peace and the changing nature of the geopolitical environment, in light of global shifts of power and of the impact of the coronavirus crisis. It then follows the logic of the annual series, by focusing on the promotion of peace and security in the EU's external action. Linking the study to the Normandy Index, which measures threats to peace and democracy worldwide based on the EU Global Strategy, each chapter of the study analyses a specific threat to peace and presents an overview of EU action to counter the related risks. The areas discussed include violent conflict, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, climate change, cyber-attacks, disinformation, and terrorism, among others. The EU's pursuit of peace is understood as a goal embodied in several EU policies, including development, democracy support, humanitarian assistance, security, and defence. The study concludes with an outlook for the future. A parallel study, to be published separately, focuses specifically on EU peace-building efforts in the eastern Mediterranean. The studies have been drafted as a contribution to the Normandy World Peace Forum scheduled for September 2021.

EU-Konzept zur Migration im Mittelmeerraum

11-06-2021

In dieser Studie, die von der Fachabteilung Bürgerrechte und konstitutionelle Angelegenheiten des Europäischen Parlaments auf Ersuchen des LIBE-Ausschusses in Auftrag gegeben wurde, wird das EU-Konzept zur Migration im Mittelmeerraum untersucht, die Entwicklungen von der Flüchtlingskrise bis zur COVID-19- Pandemie abgedeckt und die Auswirkungen dieser Ereignisse auf die Gestaltung, Umsetzung und Reform der EU-Politik in den Bereichen Asyl, Migration und Kontrolle an den Außengrenzen bewertet. ...

In dieser Studie, die von der Fachabteilung Bürgerrechte und konstitutionelle Angelegenheiten des Europäischen Parlaments auf Ersuchen des LIBE-Ausschusses in Auftrag gegeben wurde, wird das EU-Konzept zur Migration im Mittelmeerraum untersucht, die Entwicklungen von der Flüchtlingskrise bis zur COVID-19- Pandemie abgedeckt und die Auswirkungen dieser Ereignisse auf die Gestaltung, Umsetzung und Reform der EU-Politik in den Bereichen Asyl, Migration und Kontrolle an den Außengrenzen bewertet. Die Studie umfasst eine Überprüfung des Sachstands der einschlägigen EU-Rechtsvorschriften und ihrer Umsetzung, eine Bewertung der Lage im Mittelmeerraum und eine gründliche Prüfung der externen Dimension mit Schwerpunkt auf der Zusammenarbeit mit Drittländern (Türkei, Libyen und Niger) unter Einbeziehung menschen- und flüchtlingsrechtlicher Überlegungen sowie einer Analyse der Auswirkungen der Mittelzuweisungen im Rahmen des Treuhandfonds für Afrika und der Fazilität für Flüchtlinge in der Türkei. Das Hauptziel besteht darin, die korrekte Anwendung des EU-Rechts und des Völkerrechts zu prüfen, und zwar im Hinblick auf die zunehmenden Vorwürfe von Menschenrechtsverletzungen, ungebührlicher Kriminalisierung und Mittäterschaft der EU bei Gräuelverbrechen gegen Migranten auf See, die in Libyen gestrandet sind oder in Niger und der Türkei aufgehalten werden. Die Rolle der EU-Agenturen (Frontex und EASO) wird ebenso bewertet wie die von den Mitgliedstaaten ergriffenen bilateralen oder multilateralen Initiativen, wobei der Grundsatz der Solidarität als horizontales Anliegen berücksichtigt wird.

Externe Autor

Violeta MORENO-LAX,Jennifer ALLSOPP,Evangelia (Lilian) TSOURDI,Philippe DE BRUYCKER,Andreina DE LEO

Harnessing the new momentum in transatlantic relations: Potential areas for common action during the Biden presidency

10-06-2021

The transatlantic relationship has been witnessing a significant injection of renewed enthusiasm and policy activity since Joe Biden became President of the United States in January 2021. This paper focuses on three important issues on the rapidly evolving transatlantic policy agenda, exploring their potential for generating, in effect, new 'common global goods' during the Biden presidency. First, it looks at pathways towards developing some kind of 'transatlantic green deal', taking climate action ...

The transatlantic relationship has been witnessing a significant injection of renewed enthusiasm and policy activity since Joe Biden became President of the United States in January 2021. This paper focuses on three important issues on the rapidly evolving transatlantic policy agenda, exploring their potential for generating, in effect, new 'common global goods' during the Biden presidency. First, it looks at pathways towards developing some kind of 'transatlantic green deal', taking climate action, trade and climate diplomacy in the round. Second, it analyses the comparative fabrics of US and European societies through the triple lens of violent extremism, the rule of law and technological disruption. Third, the prospects for 'crisis-proofing' the transatlantic space for the future are examined by looking at defence, health security and multilateralism. The paper also explores some potential avenues for closer transatlantic parliamentary cooperation, building on the already strong relationship between the European Parliament and the US Congress.

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EPRS online policy roundtable: What is the future of (European) sovereignty?
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EPRS online policy roundtable: Statistics, Data and Trust: Why figures matter [...]
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21-09-2021
EPRS online Book Talk with David Harley: Matters of Record: Inside European Politics
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