Think Tank

In this paper, we propose and analyse four scenarios of a second Trump administration’s economic policy and its impact on Europe, ranging all the way from moderate tariffs to full trade war, a full multilateral breakdown with the US leaving the IMF down to a more cooperative exchange rate realignment agreement. We assess two trade scenarios quantitatively and outline broader policy shocks and their economic consequences. Our findings highlight significant challenges for the ECB, requiring responses ...

EU Heads of State or Government will hold their first discussion on the post-2027 multiannual financial framework (MFF) at the European Council meeting on 20-21 March 2025. Since 1988, when an interinstitutional agreement introduced the first binding MFF, the European Council has played a central role in the process leading to its adoption. In 1992, the Lisbon Treaty established a new procedure whereby the MFF would come into being through the adoption of a regulation. The European Council was not ...

This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in EU Member States and gives an overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major EU and international institutions. Annex 1 includes the latest GDP data and forecasts for all EU Member States. Annex 2 provides the latest inflation data and developments.

Once considered an issue of the past, conscription has increasingly made its way back onto European, EU and global policy agendas in recent years, mainly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As EU defence policy has steadily progressed, with new procurement initiatives and defence industry reinforcement, a parallel discussion on the EU's armed forces is evolving in the context of the EU's common security and defence policy (CSDP). Europe's civilian and military preparedness and readiness has ...

The European Union's defence industry requires a major increase in private investment due to the evolving geopolitical landscape. The emergence of new EU defence exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold shares in the underlying companies could encourage this investment and provide EU defence firms with dearly needed capital.