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When and How to Deactivate the SGP General Escape Clause?

Λεπτομερής ανάλυση 11-12-2020

Based on a brief assessment of the current EU fiscal framework, the paper discusses when and how fiscal surveillance should be enacted again, and investigates possible options for reform. The general escape clause should be lifted as soon as epidemiological conditions allow for economic activity to normalise, probably by 2022. We propose a transitory arrangement if the discussion on a broader reform of the fiscal framework remains inconclusive while the general escape clause is in force.

When and how to deactivate the SGP general escape clause?

Λεπτομερής ανάλυση 25-11-2020

This paper provides a framework for considering when and how to deactivate the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). That framework takes into account the goals of the SGP, the desire to avoid pro-cyclical policy influences that might stifle Europe’s economic recovery, and the necessity not to endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. The framework also considers the variation in performance across countries and the indicators that might be used to map transitional ...

Uncertainty - a state in which assessing future conditions by economic agents is hampered - rose sharply during the current pandemic. A bout of uncertainty can have similar effects like an adverse demand shock, dampening private consumption, investment and, hence, inflation. According to our own estimations, however, the pandemic-induced spike of uncertainty has caused little macroeconomic damage so far. The introduction of PEPP was a quick and decisive action that stopped uncertainty from rising ...

This paper analyses the effects of the implementation of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) on the macroeconomic performance of countries in the EU and the euro area. We find that the introduction of the MIP led to a decline in current account imbalances and private sector debt and credit flows, but that the overall effects are limited. To strengthen the MIP, we support the introduction of the Budgetary Instrument for Convergence and Competitiveness, i.e. a fund that pays grants, conditional ...

Communication During Unconventional Times: The ECB’s Approach

Λεπτομερής ανάλυση 15-01-2020

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

The recent case of Banco Popular has shown the importance of liquidity funding in the context of bank resolution. The Eurogroup report endorsed by the December 2018 Euro Summit noted the “broad support for the assessment of the institutions [i.e. ECB, SRB and Commission] that there are limitations in the current framework [for liquidity provision in resolution] which may hamper its effectiveness. The June 2019 Euro summit has not yet reached any conclusions on the design of that liquidity facility ...

Μακροοικονομική εποπτεία

Θεματολογικά δελτία της ΕΕ 01-07-2017

Την τελευταία δεκαετία η ΕΕ έχει βιώσει σημαντικές μακροοικονομικές ανισορροπίες (οι οποίες ανέδειξαν τις δυσμενείς συνέπειες της χρηματοπιστωτικής κρίσης που άρχισε το 2008) και σοβαρές αποκλίσεις ανταγωνιστικότητας (οι οποίες απέτρεψαν την αποτελεσματική προσφυγή σε μέτρα κοινής νομισματικής πολιτικής). Το 2011 δημιουργήθηκε η διαδικασία μακροοικονομικών ανισορροπιών (ΔΜΑ) — μια διαδικασία εποπτείας και επιβολής που έχει ως στόχο να διευκολύνει τον έγκαιρο εντοπισμό και τη διόρθωση των εν λόγω ...

Families in the European Union (EU) were hit hard by the financial and economic crisis of 2008, which, together with its after-effects, also triggered a social crisis. If measureable changes in family patterns and the breakdown of families may not be immediately observable and directly related to the downturn, the knock-on effects of the economic and financial crisis on families are far more apparent. Throughout the EU, single-parent families (16 % of all families) are exposed to the highest risk ...

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the euro have come to symbolise both the opportunities and the challenges associated with European integration and its political and economic impact. While the Member States have supported each other during the ongoing economic crisis, further structural, monetary and fiscal policy measures are needed to preserve and strengthen the euro. This note has been prepared for the European Youth Event, taking place in Strasbourg in May 2016. Please click here for the ...

'Helicopter money', or 'helicopter drops' of money, generally refers to a non-standard monetary policy tool used in deflationary conditions. It can be understood as a permanent increase in the nominal stock of fiat base money at lowest nominal interest rates. Some experts call for its use in the euro area, arguing that the interest-free distribution of additional money to the private sector would increase consumption and investments, and help jump-start the EU economy. In practical terms, there are ...