Rise in Inflation: Much Ado About Nothing?

13-09-2021

Euro area inflation reached 3% in August, a rapid increase from August 2020 when it was -0.3%. As the inflation rate now outpaces the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, could it become a concern for the central bank? After showing that the health crisis was unprecedented in its nature and sectoral characteristics, we study the determinants of inflation in the short term and then discuss various elements that could influence the trajectory of future inflation and mitigate inflation fears. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 27 September 2021.

Euro area inflation reached 3% in August, a rapid increase from August 2020 when it was -0.3%. As the inflation rate now outpaces the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, could it become a concern for the central bank? After showing that the health crisis was unprecedented in its nature and sectoral characteristics, we study the determinants of inflation in the short term and then discuss various elements that could influence the trajectory of future inflation and mitigate inflation fears. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 27 September 2021.

External author

Christophe BLOT, Caroline BOZOU and Jérôme CREEL