The Ukrainian crisis: Military threats and diplomacy [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Briefing 14-02-2022

Russia continues to strengthen its military presence around the Ukrainian border, despite intensive diplomatic activity to ward off a feared armed conflict between the countries. Russia has amassed more than 100 000 troops, as well as ships, aircraft, rocket launchers and other heavy weaponry near Ukraine, prompting some politicians and analysts to say that war may be imminent. Others believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is still playing a diplomatic game, aimed, among other goals, at bringing Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence. The United States, the European Union and other countries have threatened severe sanctions against Russia should it start new hostilities, following its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the destabilisation of some eastern Ukrainian provinces. This note gathers links to recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the crisis and its implications for neighbouring countries, the European Union and global geopolitics. More reports on the issue can be found in a previous item from the ‘What think tanks are thinking’ series.