Future of Sino-Afghan relations: Impacts on EU interests and strategic autonomy

The Taliban takeover of Kabul on 15 August 2021 and Western forces' subsequent complete withdrawal did not bring peace and stability to Afghanistan. Levels of violence may have decreased throughout the country, but the Taliban remain neither capable of sustaining the Afghan economy, nor of efficiently combating terrorist groups on their territory. After two decades of military involvement and trillions of dollars invested, and due to the Taliban's broken promises and its violations of the 2020 Doha Agreement, it remains highly unlikely that Western governments, including within the European Union, will have the capacity and political will to invest in Afghanistan beyond the provision of humanitarian assistance. This leaves the door open for other players to broker security deals with the Taliban, and exploit Afghanistan's largely untouched resources. One of these could be China. Unlike other regional players, China is a world-leading economy with a strong and undisputed presence on the international stage. For the Taliban, China could therefore bring financial investments and political legitimisation. For China, a friendly, secure, and stable Afghanistan would be a valuable addition to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a token of stability for its Xinjiang region, and would help in asserting its regional dominance in Central Asia. For the EU, the future of Sino-Afghan relations looks rather bleak. An expansion of Chinese investment in Afghanistan would strengthen the Chinese monopoly on many rare earth material and infrastructure networks in Central Asia. Conversely, restrained involvement would contribute to severely limiting economic and political development in the country, opening the door for transnational terrorist groups to flourish and threaten international security.