Future Shocks 2022: Addressing risks and building capabilities for Europe in a contested world

The coronavirus crisis has demonstrated not only that the European Union faces a variety of risks, and that those disparate risks are inter-linked, but that the response to such challenges to the Union - even in areas in which the EU does not have explicit competence - is stronger with the Union and its Member States acting together. Russia's war on Ukraine, which was launched while this study was being drafted, shows us not just the added value of concerted action by the Union but also the ability of EU institutions and Member States to find new and effective solutions to deal with major shocks. This paper, the first in an annual series, seeks to assess the risks to, and capabilities and resilience of, the EU system. Building on a review of global risks, it considers in detail specific risks with the potential to harm Europe and its people. It then sets out options for policy responses which can ensure Europe is more able to address the dangers of such risks and minimise the potential damage. Among the options set out are those previously included in European Parliament resolutions, in positions from other EU institutions, and in policy papers from think tanks and stakeholders.