EU-Ukraine 2035: Strategic foresight analysis on the future of the EU and Ukraine

This analysis looks at the future of the EU and Ukraine, using a time horizon of 2035. It was launched in June 2022 as a Strategic Foresight Conversation, a few months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The ensuing war has drastically changed all aspects of life in Ukraine, affects the EU in many significant ways and shifted pre-war geopolitical and geo-economic paradigms. The European Council decision of 24 June 2022 to give candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova added to the need for a long-term perspective on EU-Ukraine relations. The analysis is based on foresight methodologies, including a multi-stage stakeholder consultation and scenario building. Four scenarios examine future developments along two main axes: the Ukraine-Russia relationship, addressing the development and possible outcome of the war, characterised by the level of hazard; and the EU-Ukraine relationship, characterised by the level of integration. The resulting policy considerations address four areas of future EU action: firstly, the transition from military support towards a new European security architecture; secondly, the process of EU enlargement, reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine; thirdly, the development of an effective, green and sovereign European Union; and fourthly, continuity and review of EU relations with five countries which are key to the conflict: Russia, Belarus, Türkiye, China and the US.