Think Tank

This at a glance paper, prepared ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on Monday 22 June 2026, compares three recent external papers commissioned by the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs exploring the main features of the current energy shock and its implications for euro area inflation and ECB’s monetary policy.

This paper examines the factors that influence the persistence of inflation following energy price shocks. Although the current oil price shock is economically significant, it is less likely to generate persistent inflationary pressures than the energy crisis of 2022–23, as European gas markets remain relatively stable. Nevertheless, elevated geopolitical uncertainty and households’ recent inflation experience may increase the risk of second-round effects. Model simulations suggest that the long-term ...

The inflation surge of 2022–2023, and the risk of recurrence following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in early 2026, raises fundamental questions about the appropriate monetary policy response to supply-driven inflation. We examine the anatomy of both inflationary episodes, the challenges in distinguishing between supply and demand shocks in real time, the adequacy of the ECB's response to the 2022–2023 energy crisis, and the lessons that can be drawn for responding to the current inflationary ...

The EU aviation sector generates around €830 billion to €851 billion annually (about 4.4-5 % of EU GDP) and supports 1.8 million jobs directly and 14 million jobs indirectly. The workforce includes aircrew, ground handling staff, air traffic management personnel, controllers, maintenance workers, and freight staff, with aircrew forming the largest group. Key challenges include atypical employment forms such as subcontracting, agency work, and temporary arrangements, as well as irregular schedules ...

This study, prepared for the European Parliament’s Policy Department for Transport, Employment and Social Affairs and commissioned by the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs (EMPL), reviews support for large families and single parents across the European Union. It analyses vulnerabilities of these households and provides recommendations to improve support at both EU and Member State level. Particular attention is paid to the implementation of large family cards across the EU Member States ...