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This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in the EU Member States and gives an overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major international and EU institutions

On 26 July 2012, then ECB President Mario Draghi gave the so-called “whatever it takes” speech, today widely considered as the turnaround point in the European sovereign debt crisis. Shortly after, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the details of its outright monetary transactions programme (OMT) tool. The speech, together with the OMT announcement, were enough to remove re-denomination risk from sovereign bond markets. OMT was never actually used. 10 years after, in a context of record-high ...

On 2 August 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that an exceptionally large allocation of special drawing rights (SDRs), worth US$650 billion (€550 billion), had been approved with effect from 23 August 2021. The SDR allocation, the largest in the IMF's history, would serve to 'boost global liquidity' and help all members 'address the long-term global need for reserves'. The initiative complies with the IMF's mission of monitoring and promoting stability on the international monetary ...

This paper discusses theory and evidence on inflation expectations. While near-term measures of expected inflation in the euro area have increased, forecasters and financial markets expect inflation to decline back to the ECB’s target by later this year. The paper provides some sceptical arguments in relation to the prominence given to measure of inflation expectations in monetary policy circles. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies ...

Inflation expectations: quo vadis?

In-Depth Analysis 31-01-2022

Against the backdrop of the recent surge in inflation, we discuss available measures of inflation expectations and implications for monetary policy in the euro area. While long-term expectations are currently still in line with the ECB’s inflation target, the risk of a further rise increases should actual inflation remain high for an extended period of time. If expectations de-anchor the ECB may face difficult trade-offs. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific ...

This study develops on the status quo in relation to the assessment of resolvability of credit institutions and banking groups in the Banking Union and the removal of substantive impediments to their resolvability under the EU legal framework governing banking resolution, as in force, taking due account of the policies developed in that respect by the Single Resolution Board within the Single Resolution Mechanism.

The new definition of price stability is a step in the right direction, even though the ECB could have gone further toward the Fed's average inflation targeting. This definition can become most helpful as the central bank navigates new uncertainties. Yet, the review does not deal with some daunting challenges that are already visible. It will need more than a few principles about price stability to deal with such issues as high and rising public debts, financial stability, or climate change. This ...

Financial Dominance: Not an Immediate Danger

In-Depth Analysis 13-09-2021

Financial dominance describes a situation in which a central bank does not dare to tighten its policy stance as this would threaten the stability of the financial system. The danger of this happening is limited at present. The banking system is well capitalised. Private credit has not expanded much, not even during the COVID-19 recession in most euro area countries – except in France. However, in some countries, the financial sector remains highly exposed to sovereign debt. "Indirect financial dominance ...

In this paper we briefly review the macroeconomic theory of inflation, relating it to the recent developments in the advanced economies. Then, we analyse the drivers of the rise in inflation observed in 2021 in the United States and in Europe, and we illustrate the factors that may affect the inflationary scenario of the advanced economies in the longer term. Finally, we discuss what challenges the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have to meet in the face of current inflationary pressures ...

This document presents summaries of seven external papers commissioned by the European Parliament in November 2020 upon request of the Economic and Monetary Committee (ECON). Papers were delivered, analysed and published in March 2021. ECON has requested its Banking Expert Panel to address the topic of “Non-performing Loans – New Risks and Policies”.