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Economic Dialogue with Spain

Análisis en profundidad 09-07-2021

This note presents selected information on the current status of the EU economic governance procedures and related relevant information in view of an Economic Dialogue with Nadia Calviño, Minister of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation in Spain, in the ECON committee of the European Parliament. The invitation for a dialogue is in accordance with the EU economic governance framework. The last exchange of views with the Spanish authorities took place in November 2012, January 2014, November ...

This paper situates the EU’s fiscal response to the pandemic (suspending the Stability and Growth Pact, creating the SURE and Recovery and Resilience Facility) within longstanding debates on reforming EU fiscal governance and offers recommendations on the way forward, specifically the SGP reforms needed prior to returning to its rules and creating a budget with a stabilisation capacity.

Once More, the US Leads Europe

Análisis en profundidad 29-06-2021

The US and European economic approaches to the COVID-19 pandemic have differed in many ways. It is most likely that the US recovery will come sooner and will be stronger than in Europe, pretty much as has been the case with the global financial crisis a decade ago. In order to achieve a solid and lasting recovery, Europe needs to learn from the previous crisis and to prepare for the effects of the coming rapid US expansion. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific ...

The main legacy of the post-Covid-19-crisis euro area fiscal framework should be the development of a unique integrated fiscal policy and of a permanent and independent Fiscal Fund to implement it. To arrive at this conclusion, we analyse the challenges and build on current research on the optimal design of a fiscal fund. We characterise the fiscal policy, and the development of the Fund, together with the role and form that the Stability and Growth Pact can take in the new fiscal framework.

Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioners Schmit and Gentiloni have been invited to an Economic Dialogue on the 2021 European Semester package, in line with the relevant EU law. This briefing note covers the main elements of the Semester Package, the latest developments under the Semester surveillance framework, the state-of-play on the recovery and resilience plans under the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and on-going work to strengthen the governance and the resilience of Economic ...

The main thrust of fiscal and monetary responses to the pandemic in the EU and the US are contrasted. Estimates of the spillovers from US fiscal policy to Europe are estimated. They are found to be significant but economically modest. Consequences for debt and debt sustainability in the long-run are also examined. Concerns over debt sustainability in the EU and the US are warranted. Observers advocating much higher debt levels need to consider lessons from history. This paper was provided by the ...

The United States (US) have responded to the COVID-19 shock with a massive fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has maintained a highly accommodative monetary policy stance. However, the Fed’s new average inflation targeting regime is being put to the test by the spike in inflation observed in recent months. Due to the global influence of the US economy and interlinkages with the euro area, questions arise over the possibility of significant spillovers from ...

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact and the latest European Commission economic forecast. This document is regularly updated.

The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper was provided by the Policy ...

The Challenging Cliff-Edge

Análisis en profundidad 01-03-2021

From an economic policy viewpoint, the harder part will come once the pandemic is over. The crisis will leave many scars that are likely to significantly slow growth down. Countering these effects will require continuous and well-targeted fiscal policy support. Monetary policy, which provided adequate support during the crisis, will have to eventually normalise its interest rates. The ECB could play a crucial role in reducing the large debts that fragilize several member countries. This paper was ...