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What next for Europe? A strategic foresight perspective

10-10-2019

The ESPAS report examines the challenges posed for the European Union by megatrends such as digitisation, demographic change and the climate crisis. It emphasises the need for judicious responses, arguing that inaction heightens the risk of bad outcomes. It also notes that the more equal our societies are, the better prepared we are to face the future. Topics examined The report is the fruit of an inter-institutional strategic foresight exercise.

The ESPAS report examines the challenges posed for the European Union by megatrends such as digitisation, demographic change and the climate crisis. It emphasises the need for judicious responses, arguing that inaction heightens the risk of bad outcomes. It also notes that the more equal our societies are, the better prepared we are to face the future. Topics examined The report is the fruit of an inter-institutional strategic foresight exercise.

Global Trendometer - Essays on medium- and long-term global trends - July 2018

18-07-2018

The EU faces challenges from the outside and the inside. Most of those are the symptoms of big underlying trends, and handling them needs foresight. The Global Trendometer tries to provide foresight for decision makers in the EU by analysing the changes in these long-term trends. This publication does not offer answers or make recommendations. It presents summarised information derived from a range of carefully selected sources. This issue of the Global Trendometer analyses long-term trends on India ...

The EU faces challenges from the outside and the inside. Most of those are the symptoms of big underlying trends, and handling them needs foresight. The Global Trendometer tries to provide foresight for decision makers in the EU by analysing the changes in these long-term trends. This publication does not offer answers or make recommendations. It presents summarised information derived from a range of carefully selected sources. This issue of the Global Trendometer analyses long-term trends on India, the labour-share of income, and democracy and artificial intelligence. It also features two-pagers on geoengineering, remittances, food security in China, economic waves, the US after Trump, public procurement and deep fakes.

Global Trendometer: Essays on medium- and long-term global trends - Summer 2017

06-09-2017

With the publication of the "Global Trendometer" the EPRS Global Trends Unit seeks to contribute to the process of identifying and addressing medium- and long-term trends, and their possible implications for policy-making in the European Union. In this latest edition, three essays and seven two-page vignettes on different geopolitical, economic, technological and social issues paint a broad-ranging picture of some developments that may shape Europe’s future.

With the publication of the "Global Trendometer" the EPRS Global Trends Unit seeks to contribute to the process of identifying and addressing medium- and long-term trends, and their possible implications for policy-making in the European Union. In this latest edition, three essays and seven two-page vignettes on different geopolitical, economic, technological and social issues paint a broad-ranging picture of some developments that may shape Europe’s future.

Global Trendometer

06-10-2016

With the publication of this inaugural edition of the "Global Trendometer," the EPRS Global Trends Unit seeks to contribute to the process of identifying and addressing medium- and long-term trends, and their possible implications for policy-making in the European Union. Three essays and eight two-page vignettes on different geopolitical, economic, technological and social issues paint a broad-ranging picture of developments that may shape Europe’s future.  

With the publication of this inaugural edition of the "Global Trendometer," the EPRS Global Trends Unit seeks to contribute to the process of identifying and addressing medium- and long-term trends, and their possible implications for policy-making in the European Union. Three essays and eight two-page vignettes on different geopolitical, economic, technological and social issues paint a broad-ranging picture of developments that may shape Europe’s future.  

Migration and the EU: A long-term perspective

19-05-2016

Policy debate on migration understandably focuses on short-term challenges and costs, given the refugee wave that arrived in the EU in 2015. This briefing by contrast addresses challenges and opportunities for the EU of migration in the long term, and builds on foresight work within the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). It identifies three areas which call for robust policy responses, at different levels, in the period to 2030 and beyond: demographic change and its implications ...

Policy debate on migration understandably focuses on short-term challenges and costs, given the refugee wave that arrived in the EU in 2015. This briefing by contrast addresses challenges and opportunities for the EU of migration in the long term, and builds on foresight work within the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). It identifies three areas which call for robust policy responses, at different levels, in the period to 2030 and beyond: demographic change and its implications for the supply of labour; the integration of migrants; and the international dimension of migration, including the prevention and management of refugee crises. The underlying assumption is that anticipatory policy (management by foresight) is preferable to, and more effective than, responsive policy (crisis management). Because the challenges posed by migration cross many sectoral and institutional boundaries, a comprehensive and coordinated response is needed. This in turn underlines the case for shared and strategic policy analysis across the EU institutions. Continual dialogue, sharing many different perspectives and with a focus on the medium and long term, is a path towards a common understanding of both challenges and choices.     

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