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This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in the EU Member States and gives an overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major international and EU institutions

This document presents summaries of seven external papers commissioned by the European Parliament in November 2020 upon request of the Economic and Monetary Committee (ECON). Papers were delivered, analysed and published in March 2021. ECON has requested its Banking Expert Panel to address the topic of “Non-performing Loans – New Risks and Policies”.

This paper discusses policy implications of a potential surge in NPLs due to COVID-19. The study provides an empirical assessment of potential scenarios and draws lessons from previous crises for effective NPL treatment. The paper highlights the importance of early and realistic assessment of loan losses to avoid adverse incentives for banks. Secondary loan markets would help in this process and further facilitate bank resolution as laid down in the BRRD, which should be uphold even in extreme scenarios ...

The COVID-19 crisis is a significant and exogenous shock to the EU corporate sector, with implications for the operations and funding of many businesses. We compare key indicators for the global financial crisis (GFC) and the current situation, and assess implications for the policy response. We find that while many policy actions taken in response to the GFC remain valid, the nature of COVID-19 suggests a more tailored response is appropriate, with support focused on sectors most directly affected ...

This paper reviews the main differences between the prospects for NPL build-up and resolution between the current pandemic and the financial crisis of 2008-2009. To facilitate NPL reduction following the pandemic, the ECB should actively counter the revealed tendency of banks with low profitability to implement relatively low loan loss provisions.

This in-depth analysis proposes ways to retract from supervisory COVID-19 support measures without perils for financial stability. It simulates the likely impact of the corona crisis on euro area banks’ capital and predicts a significant capital shortfall. We recommend to end accounting practices that conceal loan losses and sustain capital relief measures. Our in-depth analysis also proposes how to address the impending capital shortfall in resolution/liquidation and a supranational recapitalisation ...

In the past decade, asset management companies (AMCs) have been an effective tool for relieving banks of large portfolios of non-performing loans (NPLs). Managed over time, AMCs can reduce the financial burden on the overall system. This paper is based on the existing literature and EU experiences of national AMCs created in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. It discusses the advantages and disadvantages of using AMCs, and considers the key elements in their design.

Model estimates of NPLs of a large sample of banks in the euro area suggest that macro-economic factors drive NPLs. This implies that the NPL-ratio may not increase in a similar fashion as after the global financial crisis. However, the low fit of the model shows that idiosyncratic factors play a major role in explaining NPLs. This is illustrated in a case study for the Netherlands which suggests that deferred tax payments may lead to increasing NPLs. This paper was prepared by the Economic Governance ...

This paper examines regulatory measures and supervisory practices that have supported public guarantee schemes and moratoria in euro-area countries. The focus is on flexibility shown with regard to default classifications, accounting practices and the treatment of non-performing loans. The paper identifies a number of undesirable effects and examines how soon such policies can be normalised. This document was provided by the Economic Governance Support Unit at the request of the ECON Committee.

This contribution reviews the ECB measures since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, i.e. the extension of APP and the introduction of PEPP. We show that APP announcements have helped steer inflation expectations upward. We also show that PEPP has alleviated fragmentation risk. Finally, we show that since the mid-2000s, ECB measures have had real effects on euro area unemployment rates, nominal effects on inflation rates and financial effects on banking stability. This paper was provided by the Policy ...