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Outlook for the meetings of EU leaders on 25-26 March 2021

22-03-2021

One year after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the fight against the virus will again top the agenda of the European Council meeting on 25-26 March 2021. EU leaders are expected to focus their discussions on ‘digital green certificates’ (providing proof of vaccination and/or Covid-19 test results) and progress on production, delivery and deployment of vaccines. They will work further on developing a common EU approach to the gradual lifting of restrictions and refer to global solidarity ...

One year after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the fight against the virus will again top the agenda of the European Council meeting on 25-26 March 2021. EU leaders are expected to focus their discussions on ‘digital green certificates’ (providing proof of vaccination and/or Covid-19 test results) and progress on production, delivery and deployment of vaccines. They will work further on developing a common EU approach to the gradual lifting of restrictions and refer to global solidarity. Other agenda points are digitalisation, including digital taxation, the single market and industrial policy. In respect of external relations, EU leaders will review the situation in the eastern Mediterranean and hold a strategic discussion on Russia. The subsequent Euro Summit will discuss the international role of the euro.

The European Union and the multilateral system: Lessons from past experience and future challenges

05-03-2021

EPRS invites leading experts and commentators to share their thinking and insights on important features of the European Union as a political and economic system. In this paper, David O'Sullivan, former Secretary General of the European Commission and EU Ambassador to the United States, reflects on the Union's contribution to and standing in the multilateral system which it has done so much to support and pioneer, as well as on some of the issues that confront Europe if it is to maximise its influence ...

EPRS invites leading experts and commentators to share their thinking and insights on important features of the European Union as a political and economic system. In this paper, David O'Sullivan, former Secretary General of the European Commission and EU Ambassador to the United States, reflects on the Union's contribution to and standing in the multilateral system which it has done so much to support and pioneer, as well as on some of the issues that confront Europe if it is to maximise its influence in international economic fora of various kinds.

COVID-19 and the Future of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Three Scenarios with a Trilemma

30-09-2020

We present the set of measures that the ECB has undertaken to fight the pandemic crisis by outlining the deep impact that COVID-19 is having on economic structures, and by highlighting the differences between the current policy package and previous ECB’s programmes. Moreover, we discuss what are the challenges that await the ECB in the medium to long run, contingent on different post-COVID scenarios concerning economic growth and inflation, considering its peculiar multinational jurisdiction. This ...

We present the set of measures that the ECB has undertaken to fight the pandemic crisis by outlining the deep impact that COVID-19 is having on economic structures, and by highlighting the differences between the current policy package and previous ECB’s programmes. Moreover, we discuss what are the challenges that await the ECB in the medium to long run, contingent on different post-COVID scenarios concerning economic growth and inflation, considering its peculiar multinational jurisdiction. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

Parlamendiväline autor

Luigi BONATTI, Andrea FRACASSO, Roberto TAMBORINI

Post-COVID-19 Global Currency Order: Risks and Opportunities for the Euro

22-09-2020

The issuance of EU debt in the context of the recovery plan for Europe creates scope for strengthening the international role of the euro. However, with a large share of safe euro assets likely to be absorbed by the pandemic emergency purchase programme of the ECB, a shortage of eligible bonds stands to impede such progress. The ECB could decisively increase the supply of safe assets by issuing tradable ECB certificates of deposit as a way of overcoming this obstacle. This document was provided ...

The issuance of EU debt in the context of the recovery plan for Europe creates scope for strengthening the international role of the euro. However, with a large share of safe euro assets likely to be absorbed by the pandemic emergency purchase programme of the ECB, a shortage of eligible bonds stands to impede such progress. The ECB could decisively increase the supply of safe assets by issuing tradable ECB certificates of deposit as a way of overcoming this obstacle. This document was provided by Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

Parlamendiväline autor

Barry EICHENGREEN, Daniel GROS

Can the Euro Dethrone the US Dollar as the Dominant Global Currency? Not so Soon, if Ever

15-05-2020

The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing ...

The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Parlamendiväline autor

Marek DABROWSKI

The International Role of the Euro: State of Play and Economic Significance

15-05-2020

This paper summarises recent trends in the international use of the euro and potential benefits and drawbacks of acquiring the status of an international currency, with a focus on implications for monetary policy. The benefits of international currency status are found to likely be limited and the effects on monetary policy to be ambiguous. The international role of the euro could be strengthened by policy initiatives in specific markets or as a by-product of improvements in the soundness of euro ...

This paper summarises recent trends in the international use of the euro and potential benefits and drawbacks of acquiring the status of an international currency, with a focus on implications for monetary policy. The benefits of international currency status are found to likely be limited and the effects on monetary policy to be ambiguous. The international role of the euro could be strengthened by policy initiatives in specific markets or as a by-product of improvements in the soundness of euro area economic and fiscal policies. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Parlamendiväline autor

Joscha BECKMANN, Salomon FIEDLER, Klaus-Jürgen GERN, Josefin MEYER

The Euro and the Geopolitics of Post-COVID-19

15-05-2020

This note provides a critical overview on the current status and recent trends related to the euro’s international standing over the last decade and reflects on the opportunities and risks for the role of the euro going forward, including the post-COVID-19 international trade and political order. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

This note provides a critical overview on the current status and recent trends related to the euro’s international standing over the last decade and reflects on the opportunities and risks for the role of the euro going forward, including the post-COVID-19 international trade and political order. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Parlamendiväline autor

Corrado MACCHIARELLI

Global Currencies During a Crisis: Swap Line Use Reveals the Crucial Ones

15-05-2020

The current crisis has confirmed the importance of the currency swap lines offered by the Federal Reserve. They enhance the role of the USD as the dominant global currency. However, one should not expect much impact on the international role of the euro when the ECB offers similar currency swap lines. Currency competition is not won by competing on the generosity of currency swap lines. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at ...

The current crisis has confirmed the importance of the currency swap lines offered by the Federal Reserve. They enhance the role of the USD as the dominant global currency. However, one should not expect much impact on the international role of the euro when the ECB offers similar currency swap lines. Currency competition is not won by competing on the generosity of currency swap lines. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Parlamendiväline autor

Daniel GROS, Angela CAPOLONGO

Euro area deepening and reform [What Think Tanks are thinking]

03-12-2019

Countries sharing the euro have done little to change the functioning of the single currency area since French President Emmanuel Macron called for its major overhaul in 2017. Many analysts and politicians have attributed the lack of significant reforms in this area to Germany’s – and some other countries’ – cautious approach, although also underlining that the currency area is now much stronger and more resilient than in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. The single currency area’s most immediate ...

Countries sharing the euro have done little to change the functioning of the single currency area since French President Emmanuel Macron called for its major overhaul in 2017. Many analysts and politicians have attributed the lack of significant reforms in this area to Germany’s – and some other countries’ – cautious approach, although also underlining that the currency area is now much stronger and more resilient than in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. The single currency area’s most immediate challenge is to cope with the economic slow-down, which is partly a consequence of global trade disputes. A smooth transition in leadership at the European Central Bank will also be very important. This note brings together commentaries, analyses and studies by major international think tanks and research institutes on challenges facing the euro area and related issues. Earlier publications on the topic can be found in a previous edition of 'What Think Tanks are Thinking' published in February 2019.

Towards unified representation for the euro area within the IMF

02-07-2019

Looking back on 20 years of the euro, it is widely acknowledged that it has proved successful as the common currency of the euro area, and that it has also developed into a vehicle for international trade, having become the second most widely used currency in the world. However, this growing international role is not reflected in the external representation of the euro in international financial fora, notably the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Over the years, various attempts have been made to ...

Looking back on 20 years of the euro, it is widely acknowledged that it has proved successful as the common currency of the euro area, and that it has also developed into a vehicle for international trade, having become the second most widely used currency in the world. However, this growing international role is not reflected in the external representation of the euro in international financial fora, notably the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Over the years, various attempts have been made to change this. The latest of these attempts came in the wake of the Five Presidents' Report of 2015, which subsequently led to a Commission proposal for a Council decision on unified representation of the euro area in the IMF. The proposal aims to secure representation of the euro area on the IMF's Executive Board through the creation of a single euro-area constituency, and by the Eurogroup in the remaining IMF bodies. Member States have shown reluctance to give up the current form of representation on the IMF Executive Board in favour of a unified euro-area constituency. Their objections are mainly geopolitical in nature. They tend to consider that their national interest is best served in the framework of the existing IMF governance structure. Although the proposal has been on Council's table since 2015, there has been no visible progress to date, with the 2025 implementation deadline proposed by the Commission now called into question.

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