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EU economic developments and projections

16-07-2021

This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in the EU Member States and gives an overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major international and EU institutions

This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in the EU Member States and gives an overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major international and EU institutions

When and how to unwind COVID-support measures to the banking system? The quest for safe landing place

17-03-2021

Bank loans increased considerably in 2020, due to an unprecedented wave of extraordinary measures aimed at supporting bank borrowers. Where constraints posed by public-sector deficits were tighter, the response was more focused on contingent/fiscally-neutral measures (e.g. public guarantees and moratoria), which might lead to greater unbalances in the future. Post-Covid recovery can be expected to be selective in nature, both across industries and within. Accordingly, emergency measures cannot simply ...

Bank loans increased considerably in 2020, due to an unprecedented wave of extraordinary measures aimed at supporting bank borrowers. Where constraints posed by public-sector deficits were tighter, the response was more focused on contingent/fiscally-neutral measures (e.g. public guarantees and moratoria), which might lead to greater unbalances in the future. Post-Covid recovery can be expected to be selective in nature, both across industries and within. Accordingly, emergency measures cannot simply be dismantled, but rather must be replaced by interventions aimed at smoothing the transition towards a different economic environment.

Parlamendiväline autor

A. Resti

Thinking Beyond the Pandemic: Monetary Policy Challenges in the Medium- to Long-Term

12-03-2021

The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper was provided by the Policy ...

The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 18 March 2021.

Parlamendiväline autor

Marek DABROWSKI

Path to Recovery: Dangers of Cliff Effects

04-03-2021

From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal, monetary and prudential authorities were quick to provide an unprecedented level of support to the real economy and the financial system. Most adopted measures are temporary and due to be phased out once economic and financial conditions start improving. However, an untimely and divergent phase-out would introduce potentially destabilising cliff effects that could lead to increased fragility among euro area governments, firms and households. Four ...

From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal, monetary and prudential authorities were quick to provide an unprecedented level of support to the real economy and the financial system. Most adopted measures are temporary and due to be phased out once economic and financial conditions start improving. However, an untimely and divergent phase-out would introduce potentially destabilising cliff effects that could lead to increased fragility among euro area governments, firms and households. Four papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, discussing the possible cliff effects and ways to mitigate them, while weighing the benefits and costs of protracted policy support. This publication is prepared by Policy Department A for the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with ECB President Lagarde on 18 March 2021.

Parlamendiväline autor

Charles WYPLOSZ, Daniel GROS, Farzaneh SHAMSFAKHR, Klaus-Jürgen GERN, Jan Phillip FRITSCHE, Anna GIBERT, Chi Hyun KIM

Recalibrated Monetary Policy Instruments to Address the Economic Fallout from COVID-19

04-03-2021

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the severe recession it has produced, the ECB Governing Council has adopted, since March 2020, an extraordinary set of monetary policy measures aimed at preserving favourable financing conditions and safeguarding price stability in the face of high uncertainty. The monetary policy instruments were recalibrated in the course of 2020, lastly in December 2020. Four papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, discussing the effectiveness ...

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the severe recession it has produced, the ECB Governing Council has adopted, since March 2020, an extraordinary set of monetary policy measures aimed at preserving favourable financing conditions and safeguarding price stability in the face of high uncertainty. The monetary policy instruments were recalibrated in the course of 2020, lastly in December 2020. Four papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, discussing the effectiveness and side effects of the monetary policy instruments employed as well as interactions between them. This publication is prepared by Policy Department A for the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with ECB President Lagarde on 18 March 2021.

Parlamendiväline autor

Luigi BONATTI, Andrea FRACASSO, Roberto TAMBORINI, Marek DABROWSKI, Christophe BLOT, Caroline BOZOU, Jérôme CREEL, Pierpaolo BENIGNO, Paolo CANOFARI, Giovanni DI BARTOLOMEO, Marcello MESSORI

The Challenging Cliff-Edge

01-03-2021

From an economic policy viewpoint, the harder part will come once the pandemic is over. The crisis will leave many scars that are likely to significantly slow growth down. Countering these effects will require continuous and well-targeted fiscal policy support. Monetary policy, which provided adequate support during the crisis, will have to eventually normalise its interest rates. The ECB could play a crucial role in reducing the large debts that fragilize several member countries. This paper was ...

From an economic policy viewpoint, the harder part will come once the pandemic is over. The crisis will leave many scars that are likely to significantly slow growth down. Countering these effects will require continuous and well-targeted fiscal policy support. Monetary policy, which provided adequate support during the crisis, will have to eventually normalise its interest rates. The ECB could play a crucial role in reducing the large debts that fragilize several member countries. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 18 March 2021.

Parlamendiväline autor

Charles WYPLOSZ

Adjusting Support in a K-Shaped Recovery

01-03-2021

As recovery from the pandemic continues, fiscal and monetary support can be reduced, at least for industry. Cliff effects are unlikely to arise under a gradual reduction of support. With financial markets in a “risk on” phase, monetary policy support becomes less relevant. The withdrawal of the various pandemic measures should not pose a risk to the recovery or to financial stability. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request ...

As recovery from the pandemic continues, fiscal and monetary support can be reduced, at least for industry. Cliff effects are unlikely to arise under a gradual reduction of support. With financial markets in a “risk on” phase, monetary policy support becomes less relevant. The withdrawal of the various pandemic measures should not pose a risk to the recovery or to financial stability. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 18 March 2021.

Parlamendiväline autor

Daniel GROS, Farzaneh SHAMSFAKHR

Economic Dialogue with the European Commission on EU Fiscal Surveillance

01-03-2021

Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioner Gentiloni have been invited to an Economic Dialogue on the fiscal part of the European Semester autumn package adopted by the Commission in November 2020. The fiscal elements of the package include the Commission Opinions on euro area 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans, the fiscal policy recommendation for the euro area and some elements of the 2021 Alert Mechanism Report. In March 2020, the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact was activated and ...

Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioner Gentiloni have been invited to an Economic Dialogue on the fiscal part of the European Semester autumn package adopted by the Commission in November 2020. The fiscal elements of the package include the Commission Opinions on euro area 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans, the fiscal policy recommendation for the euro area and some elements of the 2021 Alert Mechanism Report. In March 2020, the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact was activated and the Commission and the Council are expected to reassess its duration soon. The Commission has announced that it will publish on 3 March guidance for the related discussions (“One year since the outbreak of COVID-19: fiscal policy response”).

Balanced Withdrawal of Policy Support to Avoid Cliff Effects

01-03-2021

The COVID-19 crisis has triggered unprecedented concerted economic policy response. The paper investigates potential cliff effects that may arise from the temporary nature of the measures adopted and their different phase-out schedules. It finds that the concern that premature policy tightening could jeopardise the recovery are overblown. The major challenges for economic policy lie in the medium term. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies ...

The COVID-19 crisis has triggered unprecedented concerted economic policy response. The paper investigates potential cliff effects that may arise from the temporary nature of the measures adopted and their different phase-out schedules. It finds that the concern that premature policy tightening could jeopardise the recovery are overblown. The major challenges for economic policy lie in the medium term. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 18 March 2021.

Parlamendiväline autor

Klaus-Jürgen GERN

Thematic Digest: “When and how to deactivate the SGP general escape clause?”

03-02-2021

This note presents summaries of four papers on the conditions and timing for the future deactivation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is in force since March 2020. The papers, written by external experts, were requested by the ECON Committee of the European Parliament.

This note presents summaries of four papers on the conditions and timing for the future deactivation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is in force since March 2020. The papers, written by external experts, were requested by the ECON Committee of the European Parliament.

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