Rechercher

In this paper, we propose and analyse four scenarios of a second Trump administration’s economic policy and its impact on Europe, ranging all the way from moderate tariffs to full trade war, a full multilateral breakdown with the US leaving the IMF down to a more cooperative exchange rate realignment agreement. We assess two trade scenarios quantitatively and outline broader policy shocks and their economic consequences. Our findings highlight significant challenges for the ECB, requiring responses ...

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's mandate. The prevailing economic and inflation outlook supports further rate cuts. However, the high level of economic policy uncertainty necessitates cautious adjustments. Moreover, official ECB communications ...

Were the US to impose large and lasting tariffs on its imports from the EU, the effect on the euro area (EA) would be substantial and far-reaching. We expect the direct impact to be inflationary in the US and contractionary on EA aggregate demand and output. The indirect impact through an appreciation of the dollar (partly already occurred) tends to transfer inflation from the US to Europe. The ECB should be mindful that both deflationary and inflationary influences may ensue, and be ready to adjust ...

The euro area experienced an unprecedented surge of inflation in 2021 and 2022 followed by a decline in 2023 and 2024. The ECB raised policy rates too late. Simple rules would have prescribed an earlier response. The policy easing since summer 2024, however, is quite in line with such rules. This experience provides a number of lessons that could lead to improvements in the policy strategy that is currently under review. The current level of policy rates appears appropriate. However, there are some ...

This paper examines the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the euro area economy, focusing on macroeconomic and financial repercussions. While direct tariff effects are mitigated by exchange rate adjustments and ECB policies, broader risks arise from global trade disruptions and financial contagion. Increased risk premia on US bonds elevate European financing costs, posing fiscal challenges. We highlight the importance of trade diversification, innovation incentives, and prudent monetary ...

For its new mandate, the European Commission has put innovation and its commercial development at the heart of enhancing European Union competitiveness. The priority builds on the Draghi and Letta recommendations emphasising the need to boost the EU's competitiveness to ensure its long-term sustainability and prosperity. For this purpose, the Commission also aims to revisit the EU's innovation funding programmes to improve their effectiveness and attract additional private investment in innovation ...

The Commission’s implementing decision under Article 25(6) EMIR extends for three further years the current equivalence decision regarding the UK (i.e. to consider the regulatory framework applicable to central counterparties in the UK equivalent to the one applicable in the Union). The currently applicable equivalence decision is due to expire on 30 June 2025. The extension could disincentivise efforts to reduce excessive exposures to clearing services of substantial systemic importance provided ...

Insolvency laws are the rules governing the legal proceedings applicable to companies unable to repay debts as they fall due. The convergence of non-financial companies' insolvency laws across the Member States is high on the EU's policy agenda: the two reports requested from former Italian prime ministers Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi both emphasised the importance of the convergence of insolvency laws for the defragmentation and proper functioning of EU capital markets. This would help unlock capital ...

Commitments made at the confirmation hearings of the Commissioners-designate 2024-2029