Outlook for the European Council meeting of 15 December 2022

Briefing 13-12-2022

The last regular European Council meeting of 2022 is scheduled to take place on 15 December, and to deal with the main topics of this year: Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, security and defence, energy and the economy. On Russia's war on Ukraine, EU leaders are likely to reiterate their commitment to political and military support to Ukraine. Energy and the economy are purposely due to be dealt with together, to contain the discussion and to avoid a debate on setting up additional EU funding mechanisms. Moreover, EU leaders are set to hold a strategic discussion on relations with the Southern Neighbourhood, and review the outcome of the recent Western Balkans Summit. Both points are likely to include numerous migration related aspects, as the numbers of illegal border crossings into the European Union have again been rising significantly in the second half of 2022. Additionally, EU leaders will address transatlantic relations in light of rising concerns regarding the new United States Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), The anticipated possible addition of the rule of law conditionality mechanism to the official agenda seems to have been avoided at the last moment, with a deal struck between the Member States on 12 December. The government of Viktor Orbán agreed to unblock the various files it has been blocking in the Council, in particular the adoption of €18 billion in EU aid for Ukraine, in the context of changes agreed to the Commission's proposal to freeze the EU funds to Hungary.