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The productivity riddle: Supporting long-term economic growth in the EU

03-12-2018

Productivity has a key role to play in the EU's long-term economic growth. The recent economic recovery has reversed the negative trend but concerns remain about long-term prospects. Productivity varies across the EU, with newer Member States reaching only about half the level of the older ones (EU-15) when measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per hour worked, but showing a higher growth dynamic. The recent poor productivity growth in the EU raises a number of important policy questions ...

Productivity has a key role to play in the EU's long-term economic growth. The recent economic recovery has reversed the negative trend but concerns remain about long-term prospects. Productivity varies across the EU, with newer Member States reaching only about half the level of the older ones (EU-15) when measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per hour worked, but showing a higher growth dynamic. The recent poor productivity growth in the EU raises a number of important policy questions. First, there is no consensus on the reasons behind it or the best ways to remedy it. There are also conflicting views regarding how long this situation will continue. Most economists believe the current weak growth trend may be explained by a combination of cyclical and structural economic weaknesses that need to be addressed by a mix of shorter and longer-term measures. Remedies for low productivity include increasing labour market participation, strengthening product market competition, encouraging demand, investment and lending to companies, as well as restructuring inefficient markets, disseminating technology and generalising digitalisation. In the EU context, particularly important factors conducive to productivity growth include creating a genuine single market for services, boosting digitalisation across economic sectors and addressing long-term challenges, such as the ageing society and rising income inequalities, as well as implementing long-awaited structural reforms in the Member States.

Monetary Policy in an Era of Low Average Growth Rates

29-11-2018

Economic growth in the euro area has been sluggish since the onset of the global financial crisis of 2008. While some of this sluggishness reflected cyclical patterns, ongoing weak productivity growth and demographic factors point to slow average growth rates for the euro area in the coming decades. This will most likely translate into a lower equilibrium real interest rate. The ECB should follow the Federal Reserve in providing estimates to the public of average nominal interest rate it expects ...

Economic growth in the euro area has been sluggish since the onset of the global financial crisis of 2008. While some of this sluggishness reflected cyclical patterns, ongoing weak productivity growth and demographic factors point to slow average growth rates for the euro area in the coming decades. This will most likely translate into a lower equilibrium real interest rate. The ECB should follow the Federal Reserve in providing estimates to the public of average nominal interest rate it expects to set over the long term and that this is likely lower than average rates during the pre-crisis era. The ECB should continue advocating for growth-boosting structural reforms but should also consider advocating for higher immigration levels to improve Europe’s demographic profile and growth potential.

Külső szerző

Professor Karl Whelan

The EU spending on fight against climate change

16-04-2018

The present note has been drafted as a background document for the hearing on 'The EU Budget and the Paris Climate Agreement' of the EP BUDG and ENVI Committees. It aims at providing an introduction to the topic, looking at the EU commitments in the field of climate from a budgetary angle. It contains a brief overview of the policy context, a presentation of budgetary aspects, including a short part on methodology of tracking the climate-related expenditure and on distinction between adaptation and ...

The present note has been drafted as a background document for the hearing on 'The EU Budget and the Paris Climate Agreement' of the EP BUDG and ENVI Committees. It aims at providing an introduction to the topic, looking at the EU commitments in the field of climate from a budgetary angle. It contains a brief overview of the policy context, a presentation of budgetary aspects, including a short part on methodology of tracking the climate-related expenditure and on distinction between adaptation and mitigation measures, and finishes with concluding remarks on the state of play as regards EU budget for fight against climate change.

Foresight ? Contribution to the debate on the future of EU agricultural policy

28-08-2017

Strategic foresight is increasingly being used as a technique to help organisations anticipate and prepare for potential challenges or opportunities. Its application to agricultural and rural development policies is examined in this briefing. A range of relevant foresight studies are identified and examined across a number of elements, covering: the identification of key drivers of change; the nature of the scenarios they present (including the role of technology and precision farming); and food ...

Strategic foresight is increasingly being used as a technique to help organisations anticipate and prepare for potential challenges or opportunities. Its application to agricultural and rural development policies is examined in this briefing. A range of relevant foresight studies are identified and examined across a number of elements, covering: the identification of key drivers of change; the nature of the scenarios they present (including the role of technology and precision farming); and food security as well as the territorial dimensions relating to the future of Europe’s rural areas. These findings are analysed for their implications for future policy-making in respect of EU agriculture and rural development matters. In the field of public policy, there is a growing realisation that the policy process has to address many challenges such as: advancing greater policy integration; identifying and applying the lessons from previous experience of policy implementation; maximising the use of the available evidence base, and considering and adopting a long-term view of the future through forward thinking involving the development of different scenarios. Foresight studies recognise the multi-disciplinary nature of the challenges facing agriculture and the importance of 'interconnected policy-making'. The potential also exists for strategic foresight to be applied at different territorial levels.

Servicing government debt: The impact of rising interest rates

02-03-2017

Interest rates are at historically low levels, both in the European Union and worldwide. For the euro area, a reason for low market interest rate levels is the accommodative monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), which endeavours to increase inflation levels. Most of the time, central banks have to fight inflationary tendencies, but recently inflation was almost non-existent in the euro area, even leading to occasional dips into deflation. For some time, inflation was very far from the ...

Interest rates are at historically low levels, both in the European Union and worldwide. For the euro area, a reason for low market interest rate levels is the accommodative monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), which endeavours to increase inflation levels. Most of the time, central banks have to fight inflationary tendencies, but recently inflation was almost non-existent in the euro area, even leading to occasional dips into deflation. For some time, inflation was very far from the ECB’s 'below but close to 2 %' aim. With clear indication that inflation is picking up, an end to the accommodative monetary policy may be in sight. Should this impact long-term interest rates for government bonds, then it might lead to detrimental effects for governments. An increase in interest rates is generally thought to harm public finances, as the servicing of debt becomes more onerous. This briefing shows that the increase in interest rates does not immediately and fully translate into higher costs for the state, as debt management strategies were put into place that will effectively reduce the short- and medium-term impact on the state’s coffers. However, in the long term, governments cannot escape the effects of market interest rate increases. It could lead to an increase in overall debt, and in certain cases might result in the neutralisation of past fiscal consolidation efforts. Please click here for the full publication in PDF format

World Energy Outlook 2016

19-12-2016

World Energy Outlook 2016 World Energy Outlook (WEO) is an annual study produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which models future global trends in energy based on different policy scenarios. The study looks at how production and consumption of different energy sources is evolving, and considers the likely effects of investment decisions, new technologies, government policies and international agreements. The WEO sheds light on the expected energy trajectory of different regions of the ...

World Energy Outlook 2016 World Energy Outlook (WEO) is an annual study produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which models future global trends in energy based on different policy scenarios. The study looks at how production and consumption of different energy sources is evolving, and considers the likely effects of investment decisions, new technologies, government policies and international agreements. The WEO sheds light on the expected energy trajectory of different regions of the world.

Global Trendometer

06-10-2016

With the publication of this inaugural edition of the "Global Trendometer," the EPRS Global Trends Unit seeks to contribute to the process of identifying and addressing medium- and long-term trends, and their possible implications for policy-making in the European Union. Three essays and eight two-page vignettes on different geopolitical, economic, technological and social issues paint a broad-ranging picture of developments that may shape Europe’s future.  

With the publication of this inaugural edition of the "Global Trendometer," the EPRS Global Trends Unit seeks to contribute to the process of identifying and addressing medium- and long-term trends, and their possible implications for policy-making in the European Union. Three essays and eight two-page vignettes on different geopolitical, economic, technological and social issues paint a broad-ranging picture of developments that may shape Europe’s future.  

Liquefied Natural Gas in Europe

04-11-2015

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) represents the main alternative to pipeline supplies of gas. In liquefied form, natural gas (methane) can be stored and transported across long distances, contributing to diversification of supply and enhancing energy security in Europe. The gas market in the EU is characterised by gradually declining domestic consumption and more rapidly declining domestic production. Import needs are likely to increase in the short and medium term, and remain broadly stable in the longer ...

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) represents the main alternative to pipeline supplies of gas. In liquefied form, natural gas (methane) can be stored and transported across long distances, contributing to diversification of supply and enhancing energy security in Europe. The gas market in the EU is characterised by gradually declining domestic consumption and more rapidly declining domestic production. Import needs are likely to increase in the short and medium term, and remain broadly stable in the longer term. The recent plunge in gas prices, combined with abundance of supply and a weak global economic scenario, has encouraged the diversion of LNG supplies to Europe. The International Energy Agency and the European Commission expect this trend to continue in the coming years. Major new LNG suppliers are emerging and the prospect of US shale gas being exported as LNG could further reshape global gas markets. The European Commission is developing an EU strategy for LNG and gas storage, one of several measures under the Energy Union package to improve energy security and diversify sources of supply. Infrastructural projects, often with EU funding, are helping several Member States to access LNG supplies, while others have sufficient import capacity to meet expected future needs. A strategic emphasis on LNG is consistent with the recommendations of the European Council and the European Parliament.

Energy Infrastructure Priorities

09-03-2011

Energy infrastructure priorities are made on the basis of long-term energy models with underlying assumptions influencing the model results. This briefing paper analyses long-term assumptions up to 2050. It recommends that energy savings targets, CO2 reduction targets and third country interconnections for renewable electricity import are used as underlying assumptions for a longer term Impact Assessment of infrastructure priorities. Furthermore, it is recommended to set intermediate targets for ...

Energy infrastructure priorities are made on the basis of long-term energy models with underlying assumptions influencing the model results. This briefing paper analyses long-term assumptions up to 2050. It recommends that energy savings targets, CO2 reduction targets and third country interconnections for renewable electricity import are used as underlying assumptions for a longer term Impact Assessment of infrastructure priorities. Furthermore, it is recommended to set intermediate targets for 2030 and 2040.

Külső szerző

M. Altmann (Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik - LBST), J. Michalski (Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik - LBST) and A. Brenninkmeijer (HINICIO)

Következő események

11-12-2019
Take-aways from 2019 and outlook for 2020: What Think Tanks are Thinking
Egyéb esemény -
EPRS

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