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Key Macroeconomic Indicators in the Euro Area and the United States

18-11-2020

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Effects of Pandemic-Induced Uncertainty on Monetary Policy

09-11-2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has fuelled a significant or even, according to some measures, unprecedented increase in economic uncertainty. For central banks, such uncertainty makes effective calibration of monetary policy challenging. Four papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, presenting the different measures used as proxies of uncertainty and evaluating the effects of the current pandemic-induced uncertainty on economic outcomes in the euro area, in particular on inflation ...

The COVID-19 pandemic has fuelled a significant or even, according to some measures, unprecedented increase in economic uncertainty. For central banks, such uncertainty makes effective calibration of monetary policy challenging. Four papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, presenting the different measures used as proxies of uncertainty and evaluating the effects of the current pandemic-induced uncertainty on economic outcomes in the euro area, in particular on inflation. This publication is prepared by Policy Department A for the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with ECB President Lagarde on 19 November 2020.

Autore esterno

Maria Demertzis, Marta DOMINGUEZ-JIMENEZ, Pierpaolo BENIGNO, Paolo CANOFARI, Giovanni DI BARTOLOMEO, Marcello MESSORI, Atanas PEKANOV, Stefan SCHIMAN, Christophe BLOT, Paul HUBERT and Fabien LABONDANCE

Selected Euro Area Macroeconomic Indicators

23-10-2020

This note provides a comparison of some key macroeconomic forecast indicators for the Euro Area as a whole published by the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

This note provides a comparison of some key macroeconomic forecast indicators for the Euro Area as a whole published by the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

Communication During Unconventional Times: The ECB’s Approach

15-01-2020

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Autore esterno

Eddie GERBA and Corrado MACCHIARELLI

Recommendations for the ECB’s Monetary Policy Strategy Review

15-11-2019

A review into monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications is underway at the Federal Reserve. The ECB’s new President has signalled support for a review of this sort for the Eurosystem. This paper considers five areas where a review of ECB monetary policy strategy could focus and makes recommendations in relation to each area. The five areas are price stability, the monetary pillar, liquidity provision, balance sheet risk and communications. Most importantly, it is recommended that the ECB ...

A review into monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications is underway at the Federal Reserve. The ECB’s new President has signalled support for a review of this sort for the Eurosystem. This paper considers five areas where a review of ECB monetary policy strategy could focus and makes recommendations in relation to each area. The five areas are price stability, the monetary pillar, liquidity provision, balance sheet risk and communications. Most importantly, it is recommended that the ECB adopt a 2 percent average inflation rate as its definition of price stability and remove the monetary pillar from its official monetary policy strategy. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Autore esterno

Professor Karl WHELAN

Thoughts on a Review of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Strategy

15-11-2019

Time is ripe for a review of the ECB strategy: the economic context and the audience for communication have changed, and the tools for policy decisions and for analysing the environment have expanded. The definition of the inflation target, the two-pillar strategy and the use of “non-standard” policy measures need discussion. A change in the ECB mandate is also worth discussing for it would permit to evaluate the current strategy and mandate against an alternative. This document was provided by Policy ...

Time is ripe for a review of the ECB strategy: the economic context and the audience for communication have changed, and the tools for policy decisions and for analysing the environment have expanded. The definition of the inflation target, the two-pillar strategy and the use of “non-standard” policy measures need discussion. A change in the ECB mandate is also worth discussing for it would permit to evaluate the current strategy and mandate against an alternative. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Autore esterno

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL and Paul HUBERT

The Two-pillar Strategy of the ECB: Ready for a Review

15-11-2019

Inflation has remained below the ECB’s own target of ‘below, but close to 2%’ for a long time despite massive doses of unconventional policies, suggesting that the present ‘two pillar’ strategy does not work. A review of the strategy will be useful only if it is entrusted to independent experts. Otherwise, it is likely to result in the finding that only marginal changes to the existing strategy are needed and that larger doses of the present policy will be sufficient to achieve the inflation target ...

Inflation has remained below the ECB’s own target of ‘below, but close to 2%’ for a long time despite massive doses of unconventional policies, suggesting that the present ‘two pillar’ strategy does not work. A review of the strategy will be useful only if it is entrusted to independent experts. Otherwise, it is likely to result in the finding that only marginal changes to the existing strategy are needed and that larger doses of the present policy will be sufficient to achieve the inflation target. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) Committee.

Autore esterno

Daniel GROS, Angela CAPOLONGO

Below-target inflation and subdued growth in the euro area and elsewhere: implications for monetary policy

16-09-2019

Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) requested monetary experts to analyse implications of below-target inflation and subdued growth in the the euro area for monetary policy. This note, drawn up by Policy department A, gives an overview of in-depth analyses prepared by the experts for the Monetary Dialogue session which took place on 23 September 2019.

Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) requested monetary experts to analyse implications of below-target inflation and subdued growth in the the euro area for monetary policy. This note, drawn up by Policy department A, gives an overview of in-depth analyses prepared by the experts for the Monetary Dialogue session which took place on 23 September 2019.

Subdued Inflation, Targets and Monetary Policy Cooperation

16-09-2019

This paper examines the case that there has been a structural change in the determination of inflation in the EU (and elsewhere) that has led to a low real-wages, low inflation, slow productivity growth regime. In fact, there appears to have been no structural change. Instead, there has been a marked convergence between the performance of those variables in national economies. The implication is that there is little scope for greater monetary coordination in the conventional sense, or adjusting the ...

This paper examines the case that there has been a structural change in the determination of inflation in the EU (and elsewhere) that has led to a low real-wages, low inflation, slow productivity growth regime. In fact, there appears to have been no structural change. Instead, there has been a marked convergence between the performance of those variables in national economies. The implication is that there is little scope for greater monetary coordination in the conventional sense, or adjusting the monetary rules (e.g., targets), since this uniformity is the origin of the low inflation problem. Outcomes can be improved with better coordination of monetary policy with non-monetary variables. There are two lines of attack. One is a short term approach using conventional instruments (monetary-fiscal, structural or labour market reforms, improving policymakers’ credibility). The other is a long term approach based on improved income distribution, a better distribution of the gains from productivity growth, and stabilisation by means of an external anchor (exchange rate).

Autore esterno

Andrew Hughes Hallett

Global Trends in Inflation: Are Central Banks Barking up the Wrong Tree?

16-09-2019

The ECB will not be able to achieve its inflation target over the foreseeable future. Further expansionary measures will have at most a modest impact on financial market conditions and even less on overall demand. Moreover, the impact of any demand stimulus on inflation is highly uncertain. The reasons for low inflation persistence despite tight labour markets almost everywhere are not fully understood. It is a global phenomenon, but not necessarily due to globalisation. One global factor seems ...

The ECB will not be able to achieve its inflation target over the foreseeable future. Further expansionary measures will have at most a modest impact on financial market conditions and even less on overall demand. Moreover, the impact of any demand stimulus on inflation is highly uncertain. The reasons for low inflation persistence despite tight labour markets almost everywhere are not fully understood. It is a global phenomenon, but not necessarily due to globalisation. One global factor seems beyond dispute, namely a fall in global equilibrium real interests. However, different views of how the economy operates lead to very different views how central banks should react to this phenomenon. There is little evidence that cooperation between central banks would have a significant impact on their (limited) ability to achieve their inflation targets.

Autore esterno

Daniel Gros

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