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Communication During Unconventional Times: The ECB’s Approach

15-01-2020

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Išorės autorius

Eddie GERBA and Corrado MACCHIARELLI

Economic impacts of artificial intelligence (AI)

01-07-2019

Artificial intelligence plays an increasingly important role in our lives and economy and is already having an impact on our world in many different ways. Worldwide competition to reap its benefits is fierce, and global leaders – the US and Asia – have emerged on the scene. AI is seen by many as an engine of productivity and economic growth. It can increase the efficiency with which things are done and vastly improve the decision-making process by analysing large amounts of data. It can also spawn ...

Artificial intelligence plays an increasingly important role in our lives and economy and is already having an impact on our world in many different ways. Worldwide competition to reap its benefits is fierce, and global leaders – the US and Asia – have emerged on the scene. AI is seen by many as an engine of productivity and economic growth. It can increase the efficiency with which things are done and vastly improve the decision-making process by analysing large amounts of data. It can also spawn the creation of new products and services, markets and industries, thereby boosting consumer demand and generating new revenue streams. However, AI may also have a highly disruptive effect on the economy and society. Some warn that it could lead to the creation of super firms – hubs of wealth and knowledge – that could have detrimental effects on the wider economy. It may also widen the gap between developed and developing countries, and boost the need for workers with certain skills while rendering others redundant; this latter trend could have far-reaching consequences for the labour market. Experts also warn of its potential to increase inequality, push down wages and shrink the tax base. While these concerns remain valid, there is no consensus on whether and to what extent the related risks will materialise. They are not a given, and carefully designed policy would be able to foster the development of AI while keeping the negative effects in check. The EU has a potential to improve its standing in global competition and direct AI onto a path that benefits its economy and citizens. In order to achieve this, it first needs to agree a common strategy that would utilise its strengths and enable the pooling of Member States' resources in the most effective way.

Contribution to Growth: The Single Market for Services. Delivering Economic benefits for citizens and businesses

15-02-2019

The study surveys generic economic impact studies on services in the single market, summarizes the achievements of the EU legislator in the single services market in the period 2010 – 2018 as well as the principal non-legislative initiatives, discusses the estimated economic benefits of those achievements up to 2018 and attempts to identify the potential for further economic benefits in the near future. Suggestions for continued and new initiatives for the single services market are provided. This ...

The study surveys generic economic impact studies on services in the single market, summarizes the achievements of the EU legislator in the single services market in the period 2010 – 2018 as well as the principal non-legislative initiatives, discusses the estimated economic benefits of those achievements up to 2018 and attempts to identify the potential for further economic benefits in the near future. Suggestions for continued and new initiatives for the single services market are provided. This document was prepared by Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy, at the request of the Committee for the Internal Market and Consumer Protection.

Išorės autorius

Jacques Pelkmans, Foundation EUROSCOPE and College of Europe

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA): Potential impact on EU companies

14-12-2018

The USMCA is a new trade agreement due to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The United States, Mexico and Canada signed the agreement on 30 November 2018. While the text of the agreement may still change, if approved, certain USMCA provisions on rules of origin, geographical indications and voluntary export restraints could have implications for EU companies trading with or present in North America, in particular carmakers, food and drink exporters, and dairy producers. The ...

The USMCA is a new trade agreement due to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The United States, Mexico and Canada signed the agreement on 30 November 2018. While the text of the agreement may still change, if approved, certain USMCA provisions on rules of origin, geographical indications and voluntary export restraints could have implications for EU companies trading with or present in North America, in particular carmakers, food and drink exporters, and dairy producers. The USMCA could also set precedents for future US trade policy, in departing from key principles in international trade and origin determination.

The EU - Japan Economic Partnership Agreement

28-09-2018

This report independently assesses the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. We find that the EPA establishes an ambitious framework to further liberalise and better organise trade, covering goods, services, intellectual property and investment, tariff- and non-tariff measures, and regulatory cooperation. Given its depth and breadth, and that it is unprecedented in including provisions on corporate governance, SMEs, and climate change, the EPA is set to become a benchmark for future trade agreements ...

This report independently assesses the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. We find that the EPA establishes an ambitious framework to further liberalise and better organise trade, covering goods, services, intellectual property and investment, tariff- and non-tariff measures, and regulatory cooperation. Given its depth and breadth, and that it is unprecedented in including provisions on corporate governance, SMEs, and climate change, the EPA is set to become a benchmark for future trade agreements. Joining two open economies with high income levels and regulatory standards, the agreement is expected to generate benefits by boosting trade within sectors, minimising sectoral relocation and negative employment effects. Agri-food, textiles and leather products are where the EU can expect to make the greatest gains. Furthermore, the EPA will boost the EU’s economic presence and political relevance in the Asia-Pacific area. Going beyond its economic benefits, the agreement also has significant non-economic implications. Reinforced cooperation will enhance the ability of both parties to shape the course of global developments in a manner that better reflects their shared interests and values, such as their commitment to a rule-based global trade system and the fight against global warming.

Išorės autorius

Sonali CHOWDHRY, Marie Curie Visiting Fellow; André SAPIR, Senior Fellow; Alessio TERZI, Affiliate Fellow

The future of sustainable development chapters in EU free trade agreements

23-07-2018

Sustainable development is an important part of the EU trade policy since it gets on meeting the needs of the present whilst ensuring future generations can meet their own needs. All EU FTAs include a Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapter, which seeks to ensure that partners follow international requirements in the three pillars that compose sustainable development: economic, environmental and social. The adoption of the UN Agenda 2030 in 2015, which sets 17 Sustainable Development Goals ...

Sustainable development is an important part of the EU trade policy since it gets on meeting the needs of the present whilst ensuring future generations can meet their own needs. All EU FTAs include a Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapter, which seeks to ensure that partners follow international requirements in the three pillars that compose sustainable development: economic, environmental and social. The adoption of the UN Agenda 2030 in 2015, which sets 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 targets, and the 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, have pushed the Commission to review its TSD chapter and to table a new proposal, identifying 15 action points drawn from the large debate with member states, the European Parliament as well as the civil society launched eight months before. In order to feed the forthcoming debates within the European Union institutions, academic experts in the three dimensions of the sustainable development as well as representatives of the European Union institutions have been invited to the workshop to share their views, not only on the binding aspect of TSD provisions, but also on how various European Union policies can be worked together to achieve the best results.

Išorės autorius

Mr Damian RAESS Ms Evita SCHMIEG Mr Tancrède VOITURIEZ

How to include ’Mode 5’ services commitments in bilateral free trade agreements and at multilateral stage?

11-07-2018

Mode 5 refers to services which are incorporated into goods which are then traded across international borders. Unlike traditional services, Mode 5 services are not subject to the existing international trade regime under the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Rather, they are subject to trade rules under the framework that governs trade in goods. As a consequence, trade in Mode 5 services is not fully liberalised, even though liberalisation would be in the best interest of international ...

Mode 5 refers to services which are incorporated into goods which are then traded across international borders. Unlike traditional services, Mode 5 services are not subject to the existing international trade regime under the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Rather, they are subject to trade rules under the framework that governs trade in goods. As a consequence, trade in Mode 5 services is not fully liberalised, even though liberalisation would be in the best interest of international trade and the European Union. This report explores different avenues for including Mode 5 service commitments in multilateral trade agreements and free trade agreements, analyzing benefits and associated challenges. The broad conclusion is that while it may be possible to pursue Mode 5 options at the multilateral level, the most viable immediate strategy would consist in including such commitments in free trade agreements between the EU and its trading partners.

Išorės autorius

Ms Marina FOLTEA

Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the Republic of Singapore – Analysis

16-03-2018

This study analyses provisions of the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement concluded in May 2015 ('EUSFTA'). It compares EUSFTA with other 'new-generation' free trade agreements, such as the EU-Republic of Korea and the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. Overall, EUSFTA adopts a WTO+ approach and as a result significantly liberalises trade between the EU and Singapore compared to the current trade relationship. The study finds that a number of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade ...

This study analyses provisions of the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement concluded in May 2015 ('EUSFTA'). It compares EUSFTA with other 'new-generation' free trade agreements, such as the EU-Republic of Korea and the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. Overall, EUSFTA adopts a WTO+ approach and as a result significantly liberalises trade between the EU and Singapore compared to the current trade relationship. The study finds that a number of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade in goods and services that currently exist between the parties will be reduced or removed on EUSFTA's entry into force. EUSFTA, as with other 'new-generation' FTAs negotiated by the EU, adopts a comprehensive approach, and contains innovative provisions on investment, intellectual property rights, competition and public procurement. It also contains provisions which reflect growing concerns about the impact of global trade, such as those on trade and sustainable development. With regard to EUSFTA's potential impact on trade, the economic modelling estimates an increase of around 10 % in trade volumes and greater volumes of foreign direct investment between the EU and Singapore as a result of the agreement. It also concludes that EUSFTA should lead to small increases of the gross domestic products of the EU and Singapore (0.06 % and 0.35 %, respectively). The responses of a wide-range of EU and Singaporean stakeholder consultation reveal that, in general, EUSFTA is viewed positively and is considered a very ambitious agreement, which will offer new opportunities for trade and investment in the EU and Singapore. However, some concerns have been raised, especially by small and medium-sized enterprises. The implications of the result of the Opinion of the Court of Justice of the EU in case 2/15 of 2017, on whether the EU had exclusive competence to sign and conclude EUSFTA alone, is also analysed in detail. The study recommends, notably, monitoring closely that commitments taken under sustainable development provisions are implemented and used effectively in practice.

Išorės autorius

Glyn CHAMBERS, Managing Economist Capital Economics, Melanie DEBONO, Economist Capital Economics, Costas FRANGESKIDES, Partner Holman Fenwick Wilan, Jody GALLAGHER, Trainee Solicitor Holman Fenwick Willan, Dr Peter HOLMES, Reader in Economics at Sussex University (project leader), Jeremy KELLY, Associate Holman Fenwick Willan, Eirini ROUSSOU, Senior Associate Holman Fenwick Willan, Cliff STEVENSON, Cliff Stevenson Consulting, Anthony WOOLICH, Partner Holman Fenwick Willan

Future trade relations between the EU and the UK: Options after Brexit

16-03-2018

This study analyses the various options for the future trade relations between the EU and the UK, after Brexit. It examines the various models against the canvas of two distinct paradigms: market integration and trade liberalization. It finds that an intermediate model, which would allow for continued convergence and mutual recognition in some sectors/freedoms, but not others, is unavailable and cannot easily be constructed for legal, institutional, and political reasons. The stark choice is between ...

This study analyses the various options for the future trade relations between the EU and the UK, after Brexit. It examines the various models against the canvas of two distinct paradigms: market integration and trade liberalization. It finds that an intermediate model, which would allow for continued convergence and mutual recognition in some sectors/freedoms, but not others, is unavailable and cannot easily be constructed for legal, institutional, and political reasons. The stark choice is between a customs union/free trade agreement, or continued internal market membership through the EEA or an equivalent agreement. The study further analyses the effects of Brexit on the UK’s continued participation in the trade agreements concluded by the EU. Notwithstanding a range of complexities, the study finds that such continued participation is not automatic but subject to negotiation.

Išorės autorius

Piet Eeckhout

The impact of the Common Agricultural Policy on developing countries

22-02-2018

Being the biggest world agri-food importer and exporter, the European Union plays an important role in international agricultural markets. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has considerable influence on international agri-food market. With the CAP 2014-2020, the distortive effect of the policy have been dramatically reduced. However, voluntary coupled support are a matter of concern. Following the 20142020 CAP, Member States may grant voluntary coupled support (VCS) to specific sectors undergoing ...

Being the biggest world agri-food importer and exporter, the European Union plays an important role in international agricultural markets. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has considerable influence on international agri-food market. With the CAP 2014-2020, the distortive effect of the policy have been dramatically reduced. However, voluntary coupled support are a matter of concern. Following the 20142020 CAP, Member States may grant voluntary coupled support (VCS) to specific sectors undergoing difficulties. All Member States expects Germany have opted to apply VCs in some sectors and this generated market distortions both in the internal and in the international marketplace. Another feature of the 2014-2020 CAP is its competitive -oriented approach. Increased competition can boost agricultural development of non -EU countries but can also imply risks for sustainable development and food security. Growing demand supported by the CAP can also have a negative environmental impact. Therefore there are concerns about the coherence of the CAP support with environmental and climate objectives. Although the 2014-2020 CAP made progress towards ensuring policy coherence, more has to be made in the future CAP reform, particularly with reference to international commitment on climate change. Market distorting effects of some CAP instruments shall also be reconsidered.

Išorės autorius

Maria BLANCO, Professor Agricultural Economics, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain

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