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In this in-depth analysis, we summarise and explain the directions that the ECB has in mind for the digital euro, based on the ECB’s progress reports and statements. This substantially revised analysis reflects now also the fourth progress report and selected elements of the Commission’s proposals of 28 June 2023. We also highlight further questions that may deserve the legislators’ attention when they discuss the recent European Commission proposal. The analysis also entails a summary of the external ...

There is a consensus among Parliament, Council and Commission that resolution should apply more often, including among smaller and medium-sized banks. To achieve this, the Commission has now proposed a number of changes to the criteria and process of the public interest assessment. This briefing reviews, against the background of the Single Resolution Board’s past practice, what impact the proposed changes might have. The proposed changes modify in particular the comparison between resolution and ...

This note has been prepared for a regular public hearing with the Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), Andrea Enria, which will take place on 28 June 2023. The briefing addresses: (i) the ECB’s recent Financial Stability Review, (ii) the results of four asset quality reviews, (iii) the ECB’s progress report on the disclosure of climate and environmental risks, (iv) three critical reviews of the SSM’s work (vii) the ECB’s views on the proposed changes to the Crisis ...

This briefing provides a summary of all scrutiny activities of the European Parliament related to euro area monetary policy in the period between March 2023 and June 2023. These summaries are published regularly after each Monetary Dialogue (MD) with the European Central Bank (ECB). For a recap of the key monetary policy developments and decisions taken by the ECB’s Governing Council in that period, please refer to our briefing ahead of the 5 June 2023 MD.

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of the latest Commission and Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact and the latest European Commission economic forecasts. It also includes a section on the on-going review of the EU fiscal framework. This document is regularly updated.

Following recent episodes of stress in the banking sector in the US and Switzerland, the ECB’s role in safeguarding financial stability is under scrutiny. The ECB has claimed that no trade-off exists between its primary mandate on maintaining price stability and safeguarding financial stability. Furthermore, the 2021 monetary policy strategy review confirmed that financial stability is a pre-condition for financial stability, and vice-versa. Yet, further interest rate hikes may still give lead to ...

This briefing paper was prepared ahead of the Monetary Dialogue between the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) and the European Central Bank (ECB) President on Monday, 5 June. It provides a summary of key monetary policy developments and decisions taken by the ECB’s Governing Council.

Two sides of the same sparkly coin?

Padziļināta analīze 01-06-2023

Restrictive monetary policy dampens inflation effectively, but it also raises stress in financial markets. This happens through revaluations of financial assets on banks’ balance sheets and through dampened economic activity. Moreover, apart from the positive effect of exiting negative interest rates, banks’ net interest margin is generally negatively affected by interest rate hikes. With most of the disinflationary impact of higher interest rates yet to materialise, monetary policy should allow ...

We argue that a hard stagflation scenario is still possible. This would have the potential to create a conflict between price stability and financial stability. We therefore address four questions. Why should central banks be concerned with financial stability? What financial imbalances should central banks be worried about? Are monetary policy and macroprudential regulation two tools for two goals? Is the ECB poised to face the price stability vs. financial stability trade-off?

The rise of policy rates in the euro area has led to a tightening of financing conditions raising concerns for financial stability. The risk of financial crisis should be neither ignored nor overstated. The euro area is not facing conditions for which there would be the highest probability of a crisis. The risk faced by banks depends on the share of adjustable-rate mortgages. At this stage, net interest margin of banks and profitability have slightly improved.