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Is the recent increase in long-term interest rates a threat to the euro-area recovery?

04-09-2017

The magnitude of the invrease in long-term rates is still relatively modest and is mainly driven by good news. It does not represent a strong tightening of financial conditions, nor does it endanger public finances. The ECB should monitor the situation carefully but it should not be a major concern for the moment. Nevertheless, if in the future yields drift away from levels compatible with economic fundamentals, or threaten the European recovery and the return of inflation towards 2%, the ECB’s expanded ...

The magnitude of the invrease in long-term rates is still relatively modest and is mainly driven by good news. It does not represent a strong tightening of financial conditions, nor does it endanger public finances. The ECB should monitor the situation carefully but it should not be a major concern for the moment. Nevertheless, if in the future yields drift away from levels compatible with economic fundamentals, or threaten the European recovery and the return of inflation towards 2%, the ECB’s expanded toolbox could be used to influence the whole yield curve.

Ārējais autors

Grégory CLAEYS, Konstantinos EFSTATHIOU (Bruegel)

Are European bond markets overshooting?

15-05-2017

We find that monetary variables, spillovers from US financial markets, expectations and sovereign risks are the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the EA. The empirical model does not identify recent overshooting. The observed rise since August 2016 is attributed to two factors: a) the increase in US long-term interest rates after the reversal in the Fed’s monetary stance; b) political tensions in France, Italy or Spain which generated higher perceived political risk.

We find that monetary variables, spillovers from US financial markets, expectations and sovereign risks are the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the EA. The empirical model does not identify recent overshooting. The observed rise since August 2016 is attributed to two factors: a) the increase in US long-term interest rates after the reversal in the Fed’s monetary stance; b) political tensions in France, Italy or Spain which generated higher perceived political risk.

Ārējais autors

Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT, Fabien LABONDANCE (OFCE)

Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: Implications for QE

15-05-2017

Despite the partial realignment of European long-term government bonds after the crisis in 2012, there has been some renewed divergence in yields in the last years. We find that the government bond markets in the euro area are highly sensitive to changing market sentiments, both in time and across countries. Our analysis suggests that pulling the plug on QE too soon might undo some of the benefits of QE in the countries of the periphery and may lead to increases in the refinancing costs of member ...

Despite the partial realignment of European long-term government bonds after the crisis in 2012, there has been some renewed divergence in yields in the last years. We find that the government bond markets in the euro area are highly sensitive to changing market sentiments, both in time and across countries. Our analysis suggests that pulling the plug on QE too soon might undo some of the benefits of QE in the countries of the periphery and may lead to increases in the refinancing costs of member states with little or no fiscal space.

Ārējais autors

Paul DE GRAUWE (LSE), Yuemei JI (University College London and LSE), Corrado MACCHIARELLI (Brunel University London and LSE)

European Central Bank annual report 2015

15-11-2016

The European Parliament will discuss the European Central Bank's (ECB) annual report for 2015 in its first November plenary, and is due to debate an own-initiative report focusing on monetary policy and on banking supervision activities in the euro area.

The European Parliament will discuss the European Central Bank's (ECB) annual report for 2015 in its first November plenary, and is due to debate an own-initiative report focusing on monetary policy and on banking supervision activities in the euro area.

Ultra-low/Negative yields on euro-area long-term bonds: reasons and implications for monetary policy

15-09-2016

The notes in this compilation discuss the main factors underlying the extraordinary low levels of long-term rates across the euro area, assess the risks for financial stability and the implications for ECB monetary policy. The notes have been requested by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs as an input for the September 2016 session of the Monetary Dialogue.

The notes in this compilation discuss the main factors underlying the extraordinary low levels of long-term rates across the euro area, assess the risks for financial stability and the implications for ECB monetary policy. The notes have been requested by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs as an input for the September 2016 session of the Monetary Dialogue.

Ārējais autors

Daniel GROS (CEPS, Centre for European Policy Studies), Jacob Funk KIRKEGAARD (PIIE, Peterson Institute for International Economics), Andrew HUGHES HALLETT (University of St Andrews), Grégory CLAEYS (Bruegel)

European long-term investment funds

02-03-2015

Increasing the pool of private capital available in the EU for the financing, mainly in Europe, of both tangible (infrastructure or industrial facilities) and intangible (education, research and development) assets, is vital to promote innovation and competitiveness. The Commission proposes to create a new type of investment vehicle which would invest in asset classes, such as unlisted companies and infrastructure projects. Such 'European long-term investment funds' (ELTIFs) would therefore contribute ...

Increasing the pool of private capital available in the EU for the financing, mainly in Europe, of both tangible (infrastructure or industrial facilities) and intangible (education, research and development) assets, is vital to promote innovation and competitiveness. The Commission proposes to create a new type of investment vehicle which would invest in asset classes, such as unlisted companies and infrastructure projects. Such 'European long-term investment funds' (ELTIFs) would therefore contribute to the financing of the real economy in the EU, and provide private investors with steady and regular returns.

Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area, Monetary Dialogue, September 2014

15-09-2014

This compilation looks at the pros and cons of the of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs). The notes discuss whether the TLTROs framework may prove effective to enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism by supporting bank lending to the real economy. The notes have been requested by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament as an input for the September 2014 session of the Monetary Dialogue between the Members of ...

This compilation looks at the pros and cons of the of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs). The notes discuss whether the TLTROs framework may prove effective to enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism by supporting bank lending to the real economy. The notes have been requested by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament as an input for the September 2014 session of the Monetary Dialogue between the Members of the ECON Committee and the President of the ECB.

Ārējais autors

Daniel GROS, Cinzia ALCIDI and Alessandro GIOVANNINI (Centre for European Policy Studies) ; Charles WYPLOSZ (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)

European Long-term Investment Funds: Initial Appraisal of the Commission's Impact Assessment

07-03-2014

This briefing seeks to provide an initial analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the European Commission's Impact Assessment accompanying its proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on European Long-term Investment Funds (COM (2013) 462), which was submitted on 26 June 2013. It analyses whether the principal criteria laid down in the Commission’s own Impact Assessment Guidelines, as well as additional factors identified by the Parliament in its Impact Assessment ...

This briefing seeks to provide an initial analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the European Commission's Impact Assessment accompanying its proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on European Long-term Investment Funds (COM (2013) 462), which was submitted on 26 June 2013. It analyses whether the principal criteria laid down in the Commission’s own Impact Assessment Guidelines, as well as additional factors identified by the Parliament in its Impact Assessment Handbook, appear to be met by the IA. It does not attempt to deal with the substance of the proposal. It is drafted for informational and background purposes to assist the relevant parliamentary committee and Members more widely in their work.

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