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Slowing down or changing track? Understanding the dynamics of 'Slowbalisation'

03-12-2020

Slowbalisation – understood as the slowdown in global integration – is said to have started in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. The coronavirus pandemic brought about a further dramatic fall in cross-border movement of goods, services, capital and people, to the extent that commentators have proclaimed the beginning of deglobalisation. This paper examines whether the phenomenon described as slowbalisation is myth or reality, by looking at five different pathways of globalisation ...

Slowbalisation – understood as the slowdown in global integration – is said to have started in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. The coronavirus pandemic brought about a further dramatic fall in cross-border movement of goods, services, capital and people, to the extent that commentators have proclaimed the beginning of deglobalisation. This paper examines whether the phenomenon described as slowbalisation is myth or reality, by looking at five different pathways of globalisation: international trade, financial openness, increasing inequality, cross-border social movement, and digital exchanges. The key conclusion is that slowbalisation has not been a uniform trend. While international economic globalisation has indeed slowed, the 'digital leap' and continued inequality suggest that globalisation is merely changing form, not disappearing.

Economic Dialogue with the European Commission on the 2021 European Semester Cycle

03-12-2020

Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioners Schmit and Gentiloni have been invited to an Economic Dialogue to discuss the 2021 European Semester Cycle, in line with the relevant EU law. This briefing note covers the main elements of the 2021 European Semester Package proposed by the Commission. It gives an overview of the implementation of the previous Semester Cycles and of the on-going work to strengthen the governance and the resilience of Economic and Monetary Union.

Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioners Schmit and Gentiloni have been invited to an Economic Dialogue to discuss the 2021 European Semester Cycle, in line with the relevant EU law. This briefing note covers the main elements of the 2021 European Semester Package proposed by the Commission. It gives an overview of the implementation of the previous Semester Cycles and of the on-going work to strengthen the governance and the resilience of Economic and Monetary Union.

Recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area - December 2020

02-12-2020

This note looks at the 2021 recommendation on the economic policies of the euro area proposed by the Commission. It also provides an overview of the follow up of the 2020 recommendations, making use of public information and based on proxies such as on how the Eurogroup has integrated euro area recommendations concerns in their “thematic discussions” and work programmes. In addition, the note provides a review of the euro area recommendations from an institutional perspective and includes broad comparisons ...

This note looks at the 2021 recommendation on the economic policies of the euro area proposed by the Commission. It also provides an overview of the follow up of the 2020 recommendations, making use of public information and based on proxies such as on how the Eurogroup has integrated euro area recommendations concerns in their “thematic discussions” and work programmes. In addition, the note provides a review of the euro area recommendations from an institutional perspective and includes broad comparisons to earlier recommendations, to illustrate how policy concerns have evolved over time. This is an update of similar note on the 2020 recommendations and it will be regularly updated.

No way back:Why the transatlantic future needs a stronger EU

25-11-2020

There is no way back for transatlantic politics; in recent years it has suffered severe setbacks that cannot be undone. Although the Biden win promises opportunities for EU-US cooperation, the EU’s drive for strategic autonomy will not stop here. It is high time to look afresh at the very foundations of the transatlantic partnership, in light of not only the politics of today, but also the structural trends in the global balance of power and the lasting institutional ties between the two continents ...

There is no way back for transatlantic politics; in recent years it has suffered severe setbacks that cannot be undone. Although the Biden win promises opportunities for EU-US cooperation, the EU’s drive for strategic autonomy will not stop here. It is high time to look afresh at the very foundations of the transatlantic partnership, in light of not only the politics of today, but also the structural trends in the global balance of power and the lasting institutional ties between the two continents. Above all, the transatlantic future needs a stronger EU. For this to happen, the following issues should be given priority: i) dealing with an increasingly assertive China; ii) gaining more from transatlantic trade relations; iii) safeguarding the benefits of NATO and multilateral institutions like the WTO; iv) battling disinformation and other hybrid threats; and v) reinvigorating cooperation over climate change and global health. Because understanding of and trust in US intelligence and foreign policy positions has been eroded, a ‘thickening’ of transatlantic dialogue structures, including among elected representatives, should be pursued. This could include staff exchanges, track-two dialogues with think tanks and civil society, and an increased frequency of the Transatlantic Legislators Dialogue, possibly supplemented with more subordinate bodies on specific issues, such as dealing with China.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

Louise VAN SCHAIK, Ties DAMS

When and how to deactivate the SGP general escape clause?

25-11-2020

This paper provides a framework for considering when and how to deactivate the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). That framework takes into account the goals of the SGP, the desire to avoid pro-cyclical policy influences that might stifle Europe’s economic recovery, and the necessity not to endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. The framework also considers the variation in performance across countries and the indicators that might be used to map transitional ...

This paper provides a framework for considering when and how to deactivate the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). That framework takes into account the goals of the SGP, the desire to avoid pro-cyclical policy influences that might stifle Europe’s economic recovery, and the necessity not to endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. The framework also considers the variation in performance across countries and the indicators that might be used to map transitional arrangements.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

Erik JONES

EU/EA measures to mitigate the economic, financial and social effects of coronavirus State-of-play 20 November 2020

20-11-2020

This document compiles information, obtained from public sources, on the measures proposed and taken at the EU or Euro Area level to mitigate the economic and social effects of Covid19. It will be regularly updated, following new developments.

This document compiles information, obtained from public sources, on the measures proposed and taken at the EU or Euro Area level to mitigate the economic and social effects of Covid19. It will be regularly updated, following new developments.

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

18-11-2020

The outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis has triggered a new wave of uncertainty, which may amplify the negative effect of the crisis. Based on several uncertainty measures, we show that inflation in the euro area is negatively affected by higher uncertainty. However, uncertainty does not impair the transmission of monetary policy. Consequently, the ECB should consider uncertainty in its reaction function in order to fulfil its mandate. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, ...

The outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis has triggered a new wave of uncertainty, which may amplify the negative effect of the crisis. Based on several uncertainty measures, we show that inflation in the euro area is negatively affected by higher uncertainty. However, uncertainty does not impair the transmission of monetary policy. Consequently, the ECB should consider uncertainty in its reaction function in order to fulfil its mandate. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

Christophe BLOT, Paul HUBERT, Fabien LABONDANCE

The Euro Area After COVID-19

18-11-2020

The COVID-19 pandemic will leave the euro area economy quite weak. It will be essential that both fiscal and monetary policies remain mobilised to achieve a sustainable recovery. Having indirectly financed a large share of new public debts, the ECB will have to tread a fine line between its price stability mandate and the need to avoid disrupting debt markets. The solution for the ECB is to use its announced strategy review to provide more clarity, both to its objectives and to its procedures. This ...

The COVID-19 pandemic will leave the euro area economy quite weak. It will be essential that both fiscal and monetary policies remain mobilised to achieve a sustainable recovery. Having indirectly financed a large share of new public debts, the ECB will have to tread a fine line between its price stability mandate and the need to avoid disrupting debt markets. The solution for the ECB is to use its announced strategy review to provide more clarity, both to its objectives and to its procedures. This includes adopting average inflation targeting, a formal relationship with member governments and the issuance of its own debt instruments. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

Charles Wyplosz

Rethinking Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Post-COVID Euro Area

18-11-2020

In the post-COVID environment, the ECB might face many and related trade-offs associated with the risk of being dominated by policy concerns other than price stability. Most of these risks could be reduced by a revision of the euro area governance framework, the creation of a new mechanism to provide financial assistance, and the implementation of a one-off intervention to reduce the exposure of the Eurosystem towards the euro area sovereign debts. This document was provided by the Policy Department ...

In the post-COVID environment, the ECB might face many and related trade-offs associated with the risk of being dominated by policy concerns other than price stability. Most of these risks could be reduced by a revision of the euro area governance framework, the creation of a new mechanism to provide financial assistance, and the implementation of a one-off intervention to reduce the exposure of the Eurosystem towards the euro area sovereign debts. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON). ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

Luigi BONATTI, Andrea FRACASSO, Roberto TAMBORINI

Uncertainty and the Pandemic Shocks

18-11-2020

The COVID-19 pandemic shocks are a significant source of uncertainty in several aspects. In particular, these shocks influence the landscape, in which policymakers operates, and create further uncertainty about policy decisions and about their effectiveness. The aim of this paper is to offer some relative measures of the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, and to discuss the impact of this uncertainty on the possible evolution of European economies during the second wave of COVID-19. Emphasis will ...

The COVID-19 pandemic shocks are a significant source of uncertainty in several aspects. In particular, these shocks influence the landscape, in which policymakers operates, and create further uncertainty about policy decisions and about their effectiveness. The aim of this paper is to offer some relative measures of the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, and to discuss the impact of this uncertainty on the possible evolution of European economies during the second wave of COVID-19. Emphasis will be placed on the effectiveness of the policies implemented. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.

Autorzy zewnętrzni

Pierpaolo BENIGNO, Paolo CANOFARI, Giovanni DI BARTOLOMEO, Marcello MESSORI

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