Prospects for EU economic recovery [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Uncertainty is growing over the recovery of the European economy from the recession generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The European Commission has painted an optimistic growth scenario in its most recent forecast, with the economy expected to expand by 5 per cent and 4.3 per cent in 2021 and 2022 respectively. However, an increasing number of analysts see the potential for growth dampened by new restrictions in the run-up to Christmas this year given a fourth/fifth wave of the pandemic currently gripping Europe, compounded by the discovery of a new variant of the coronavirus. Higher inflation, partly resulting from high energy prices and disrupted supply chains, is also seen as a threat to the economy of the euro area and the wider EU, as are high public debt levels in many countries. This note gathers links to recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the state of the European economy and on debates on how to reform it.