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This paper presents the aggregated results of a survey conducted among Members of the Monetary Policy Expert Panel (MPEP) ahead of the February 2026 Monetary Dialogue with ECB President Christine Lagarde. The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the survey respondents and should not be attributed to the European Parliament or its services.

This paper assesses the ECB’s monetary policy stance and communication amid declining inflation, persistent uncertainty, and renewed external risks. It documents how trade-policy shocks and global spillovers affect inflation surprises, highlights substantial cross-country inflation heterogeneity within the euro area, and shows that common shocks generate uneven national responses. Using a novel multi-agent LLM framework, it evaluates ECB communication, revealing strengths during active policy adjustments ...

The ECB anticipates stable growth and inflation, while Europe is faced with geopolitical threats, lack of competitiveness and fiscal challenges. At such a time, central bankers need to consider the dynamics of risk scenarios that arise from potentially mis-aligned or mis-perceived trends and policy-relevant parameters and prepare for timely policy responses. This paper focusses on potentially unsustainable fiscal trends, potential growth misperceptions and their implications for inflation developments ...

'In 2026, we will deliver', was the main message of European Council President António Costa after the EU leaders' informal competitiveness retreat at Alden Biesen castle, Belgium, on 12 February 2026. There was a shared sense of urgency on the need to fix the ailing EU economy, which suffers from low productivity, expensive energy, bureaucracy, a fragmented single market, fierce competition from the United States and China, and the unravelling rules-based global order. As usual, no formal conclusions ...

The European Commission drew up seven impact assessments (IAs) in support of 18 programme proposals for the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF) and the proposed regulation on a horizontal performance framework. The broad scope of these IAs does not allow individual programme proposals to be assessed in any detail – as is particularly salient in the case of the IA on the national and regional partnership plans, covering nine legislative proposals. All IAs acknowledge a deviation from the ...

This digest provides a collection of documents prepared by academia, think tanks, other EU institutions and bodies, as well as stakeholders, that can be useful for Members of the European Parliament’s Committee on Budgets to stay informed about the debate concerning the next Multiannual Financial Framework, starting in 2028. The document is produced on a monthly basis by the Budgetary Support Unit of DG BUDG and the European Parliamentary Research Service.

In autumn 2025, the ECON Committee requested external expertise to better understand the evolving EU-US macroeconomic dynamics to foster effective policy scrutiny in light of the European Parliament's economic oversight responsibilities. Three papers have been received: one by Natacha VALLA and François MIGUET (Sciences Po and New York University), one by Cinzia ALCIDI (Centre for European Policy Studies, CEPS), and one by Daniela GABOR (SOAS University of London). This briefing presents the main ...

This infographic provides insight into the economic performance of China compared with the European Union (EU) and examines the trade dynamics between them. In 2024, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate was recorded at 5%, while the EU experienced a growth rate of 1.1%. Chinese inflation rates remain stable at 0.2%. The exchange rate of the renminbi-yuan continues to rise, reaching 7.8 units per euro in 2024. Trade in goods and services between the EU and China has remained relatively ...

EU growth continues to build momentum, driven mainly by domestic demand. Fiscal deficits are edging up, and debt remains elevated. Inflation is revolving around the 2 % target, prompting the ECB to keep rates unchanged. Labour markets remain tight, with unemployment stable at record-low levels and employment at historic highs. US tariffs are expected to weigh only modestly on EU growth, affecting exports, with limited and short-lived effects on GDP, prices and the trade balance. Regarding EU funding ...

The IA is part of the second package of Commission proposals for programmes under the 2028 2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF). It acknowledges from the start that it deviates from the scope and standard IA methods defined by the Commission's better regulation guidelines and toolbox, which affects all parts of the IA. Another particularity is the fact that the IA is entirely qualitative and does not provide any quantified estimates, either for the problem definition, or for the impacts, or ...