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Selected Euro Area Macroeconomic Indicators

11-06-2020

This note provides a comparison of some key macroeconomic forecast indicators for the Euro Area as a whole published by the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

This note provides a comparison of some key macroeconomic forecast indicators for the Euro Area as a whole published by the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

Key Macroeconomic Indicators in the Euro Area and the United States

11-06-2020

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact - March 2020

03-03-2020

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of (1) the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact; (2) the latest European Commission economic forecasts; and (3) the latest European Commission opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans of euro area Member States. This document is regularly updated.

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of (1) the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact; (2) the latest European Commission economic forecasts; and (3) the latest European Commission opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans of euro area Member States. This document is regularly updated.

Australia: Economic indicators and trade with EU

24-02-2020

Australia was the world's 13th largest economy in 2018, with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) at 2.9 %. It has a strong and dynamic relationship with the EU. Negotiations for a free trade agreement between Australia and the EU were formally launched in June 2018. In 2018, Australia was the EU's 19th largest trading partner, with a 1.2% share of the EU's total trade. Further information on EU-Australia trade relations, such as the composition of trade between the two partners, can be found in ...

Australia was the world's 13th largest economy in 2018, with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) at 2.9 %. It has a strong and dynamic relationship with the EU. Negotiations for a free trade agreement between Australia and the EU were formally launched in June 2018. In 2018, Australia was the EU's 19th largest trading partner, with a 1.2% share of the EU's total trade. Further information on EU-Australia trade relations, such as the composition of trade between the two partners, can be found in this infographic, which also provides an economic snapshot of Australia.

Expected real GDP growth for 2019 in EU Member States

27-05-2019

The map below shows the 2019 expected real Gross Domestic Product growth based on the European Commission’s spring 2019 forecast; the data will be updated on regular basis once new forecasts will be available.

The map below shows the 2019 expected real Gross Domestic Product growth based on the European Commission’s spring 2019 forecast; the data will be updated on regular basis once new forecasts will be available.

Autor externo

New edition 2016

Living in the EU: The Economy

30-04-2019

While economic policies are mainly managed at national level, the European Union (EU) and its Member States (MS) annually coordinate national economic policies, budget, and macroeconomic as well as structural reforms within the European Semester. To design economic policies that shape European wellbeing, measuring the prosperity of people and MS is an important starting point for responses to the financial and economic crises that have strongly affected debt levels and the sustainability of public ...

While economic policies are mainly managed at national level, the European Union (EU) and its Member States (MS) annually coordinate national economic policies, budget, and macroeconomic as well as structural reforms within the European Semester. To design economic policies that shape European wellbeing, measuring the prosperity of people and MS is an important starting point for responses to the financial and economic crises that have strongly affected debt levels and the sustainability of public finances across the EU. The present infographic provides information about trade in goods between MS and with global partners, taxes, social contributions and consumption-related household expenditure.

Extrato de um estudo - O dividendo de dois biliões de euros da Europa: Identificação do Custo da não-Europa, 2019-24

18-04-2019

O presente documento provém de um estudo que congrega o trabalho em curso referente a um projeto de longo prazo que visa identificar e analisar o «custo da não-Europa» em alguns domínios políticos. Este conceito, aplicado pela primeira vez pelo Parlamento Europeu na década de 1980, é aqui utilizado para quantificar os potenciais ganhos de eficiência na atual economia europeia através do acompanhamento de uma série de iniciativas políticas recentemente preconizadas pelo Parlamento — desde um mercado ...

O presente documento provém de um estudo que congrega o trabalho em curso referente a um projeto de longo prazo que visa identificar e analisar o «custo da não-Europa» em alguns domínios políticos. Este conceito, aplicado pela primeira vez pelo Parlamento Europeu na década de 1980, é aqui utilizado para quantificar os potenciais ganhos de eficiência na atual economia europeia através do acompanhamento de uma série de iniciativas políticas recentemente preconizadas pelo Parlamento — desde um mercado único digital mais vasto e aprofundado até uma coordenação mais sistemática das políticas de defesa nacionais e europeias ou um reforço da cooperação no combate à elisão fiscal das empresas. Os benefícios são quantificados principalmente em termos do PIB adicional gerado ou da utilização mais racional dos recursos públicos. A análise mais recente aponta para potenciais ganhos superiores a 2200 mil milhões de euros para a economia europeia (UE-28), se as políticas preconizadas pelo Parlamento numa série de domínios específicos forem adotadas pelas instituições da União e executadas na íntegra na década de 2019 a 2029. Tal constituiria, com efeito, um «dividendo de dois biliões de euros», o que representa um aumento de cerca de 14 % do PIB total da UE (que foi de 15,3 biliões de euros em 2017). O estudo destina-se a contribuir para o debate em curso acerca das prioridades políticas da União Europeia no próximo ciclo institucional de cinco anos, de 2019 a 2024.

Understanding trade balances

08-02-2019

Trade policy discourse on both sides of the Atlantic has recently focused on trade deficits and surpluses. In the United States (US), President Donald Trump has routinely referred to the US trade deficit as a central indicator of the country's economic woes and made its reduction a key objective of US trade policy. In Europe, the world's largest trade surplus, run by Germany, has come under scrutiny. However, focusing on trade balances of exports and imports can be misleading in the trade policy ...

Trade policy discourse on both sides of the Atlantic has recently focused on trade deficits and surpluses. In the United States (US), President Donald Trump has routinely referred to the US trade deficit as a central indicator of the country's economic woes and made its reduction a key objective of US trade policy. In Europe, the world's largest trade surplus, run by Germany, has come under scrutiny. However, focusing on trade balances of exports and imports can be misleading in the trade policy context. Trade balances need to be considered as an integral part of a larger whole, the balance of payments of an economy. The imposition of specific trade policy measures, such as unilateral tariffs, cannot be expected to improve a trade balance significantly.

Argentina: Economic indicators and trade with EU

07-12-2018

In 2017, Argentina’s economy continued its gradual recovery from major macroeconomic imbalances with a GDP per capita growth rate of 2.9% thanks to austerity measures and a comprehensive reform agenda. However, inflation at 25.7% and unemployment at 8.5% remained high. Whereas economic fundamentals were slowly improving and the country’s political context remained stable after president Mauricio Macri made political gains at the mid-term legislative elections in October 2017, a crisis of confidence ...

In 2017, Argentina’s economy continued its gradual recovery from major macroeconomic imbalances with a GDP per capita growth rate of 2.9% thanks to austerity measures and a comprehensive reform agenda. However, inflation at 25.7% and unemployment at 8.5% remained high. Whereas economic fundamentals were slowly improving and the country’s political context remained stable after president Mauricio Macri made political gains at the mid-term legislative elections in October 2017, a crisis of confidence hit the economy in spring 2018. The crisis exposed vulnerabilities resulting from Argentina’s fiscal and current account deficit and large foreign-denominated debt. As the peso continued its downward trend in autumn 2018, although Argentina secured an IMF US$50 billion credit line and committed to new austerity measures, the economic context is likely to harden ahead of the 2019 presidential elections. With a share of 16.2% of Argentina’s overall trade, the EU is the country’s second largest trading partner after Brazil that accounts for 21.9%. In 2017, EU exports to Argentina increased to almost €10 billion, while EU imports slightly decreased to more than €8 billion. Total imports of primary products from Argentina declined and those of manufactures, notably chemicals, grew. EU exports of both primary products and manufactures, particularly machinery and appliances as well as transport equipment, increased.

Monetary Policy in an Era of Low Average Growth Rates

29-11-2018

Economic growth in the euro area has been sluggish since the onset of the global financial crisis of 2008. While some of this sluggishness reflected cyclical patterns, ongoing weak productivity growth and demographic factors point to slow average growth rates for the euro area in the coming decades. This will most likely translate into a lower equilibrium real interest rate. The ECB should follow the Federal Reserve in providing estimates to the public of average nominal interest rate it expects ...

Economic growth in the euro area has been sluggish since the onset of the global financial crisis of 2008. While some of this sluggishness reflected cyclical patterns, ongoing weak productivity growth and demographic factors point to slow average growth rates for the euro area in the coming decades. This will most likely translate into a lower equilibrium real interest rate. The ECB should follow the Federal Reserve in providing estimates to the public of average nominal interest rate it expects to set over the long term and that this is likely lower than average rates during the pre-crisis era. The ECB should continue advocating for growth-boosting structural reforms but should also consider advocating for higher immigration levels to improve Europe’s demographic profile and growth potential.

Autor externo

Professor Karl Whelan

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